BUHARI AND 2015 2015 election will be very crucial in the history of Nigeria politics; it will be the third time the opposition parties will be coming together under a formidable platform to fight the incumbent. The first attempt was in 1964 when the opposition parties precisely Chief J.S. Tarka led United Middle Belt Congress (UMBC) together with Chief Awolowo’s Action Group (AG) came together with Dr. Azikiwe’s National Council of Nigeria Citizens, (NCNC) and Mallam Aminu Kano’s Northern Elements Progressive Union, (NEPU) to form the United Progressive Grand Alliance, (UPGA) on whose platform they challenged the Nigeria National Alliance (NNA). The NNA which was coined out of Chief Akintola’s Nigeria National Democratic Party (NNDP) and Sir Ahmadu Bello’s Northern Peoples Congress (NPC) still won the election though in a very controversial circumstances. The perceived abnormalities that marred the conduct of the 1964 elections led to many crises in the country and prominent amongst many were the famous Atemityough (breaking of heads) riot in Tivland and the crises in the Western Region. The two major incidences were attributed by the Five Majors as one of the major reasons for the January 1966 revolution. The second attempt was in 1983 when the twelve progressive governors teamed up with the main purpose of unseating the NPN ruling government of Alhaji Shehu Shagari. Governors elected under the platforms of the Unity Party of Nigeria (UPN), Nigeria Peoples Party (NPP), Great Nigeria Peoples Party (GNPP) and the Peoples Redemption Party (PRP) had formed a coalition which was believed to be formidable considering the fact that it out numbered the ruling NPN which had only 7 states. Unfortunately, the alliance did not see the light of the day as it faded away prior to the general elections; most of the principal actors did not forgo their personal interests in order to actualize the prime motive of the coalition. The leaders of the coalition parties namely: Chief Obafemi Awolowo, Dr. Nnamdi Azikiwe and Alhaji Waziri Ibrahim had presidential ambitions and were not ready sacrifice for one another. Alhaji Abubakar Rimi (of blessed memory) confided in me some time ago that Awolowo’s insistence on being the presidential candidate of the alliance led to its collapse; to him, most of them had preferred Dr. Azikiwe considering his age and position as former president of Nigeria. According to Rimi, his position angered some of the UPN Governors who saw that as a direct affront on their leader and the Governor of Oyo State Chief Bola Ige confronted him during one of their meetings in Governor Lateef Jakande’s Guest House. Governor Ige’s action was born out of the conviction that such a move was aimed at maligning their undisputable leader. This battle for supremacy ended the dream of the said progressives. As 2015 election draws nearer, the opposition who is hell bent on taking over power from the ruling Peoples Democratic Party should learn from this experience and be conscious of the fact that, inasmuch as Nigerians are in a dire need of a positive change, the choice of a presidential candidate will determine if its dream will be actualized or not. It will be an understatement to say that Buhari stands out as the best presidential candidate for the APC; this is informed by his general acceptability by the Masses of Nigeria. If the opposition is really desirous of winning the 2015 presidential election, it has no alternative than to feature General Buhari as its candidate and the reasons are very simple. He has twelve million votes that are always intact for him at any time; this was demonstrated in 2003, 2007 and 2011. I am not writing this as a card carrying member of a political party but as a rational thinker that is worried about the current situation in the country. If APC chooses General Buhari as its presidential candidate for 2015 general election, it will be a landslide victory for the party; only votes of the North West and South West will give victory to the party. These are the most populated geo-political regions in Nigeria and they can only give their block votes to APC if Buhari emerges as its candidate. If it is joined with other states like Gombe, Bauchi, Borno, Yobe, Adamawa and Niger which are always for the General, it will serve a great deal. It is most likely that Kwara and Nasarawa will also go for the APC, Benue and Taraba will share 50-50 with the PDP and with the current situation in Kogi state, the PDP may be heading to the rocks. Aside Buhari, none of the presidential aspirants in the APC has this clout; while other politicians use their resources to garner votes, the ordinary person on the street is always ready to defend the General at his/her own cost and the arithmetic shown above can only be obtainable with Buhari in the game. If the APC does any mistake of shortchanging their most charismatic aspirant for moneybags, the party is directly paving way for the PDP to actualize their earlier proclamation of ruling Nigeria for the next sixty years. Comrade Richard Tersoo Mnenga rmnenga@gmail Former National Organizing Secretary Congress for Progressive Change.
Posted on: Sun, 05 Oct 2014 16:21:16 +0000
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