BVI DDM: A hurricane warning continues to be in effect for the British Virgin Islands as tropical Storm Gonzalo continues to strengthen on its approach to the Territory. The latest update by an air force reserve reconnaissance aircraft and Guadeloupe radar puts the centre of Tropical Storm Gonzalo near Latitude 17.4 degrees North and Longitude 62.4 degrees West. Gonzalo is moving toward the west-northwest near 10 miles per hour. This general motion is expected to continue today followed by a turn toward the northwest tonight. On the forecast track the centre of Gonzalo will continue to move through the northern Leeward Islands tonight and be near or over the British Virgin Islands tonight and early Tuesday. Reports from the reconnaissance aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 70 mph with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours and Gonzalo is expected to become a hurricane by this evening. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles from the centre. The minimum central pressure recently measured by the aircraft was 988 mb. Satellite and flight recon data indicate that Gonzalo continues to become better organised. Due to favorable environmental conditions and the current rate of organisation, forecasters cannot rule out the system becoming a hurricane by the time it makes its closest approach to the British Virgin Islands tonight. Gonzalo is a small compact system and will remain so as it traverses over the northeastern Caribbean over the next 18 to 24 hours. Therefore, if the system reaches hurricane force, the hurricane force winds will likely be contained in the northern eye-wall, no more than 25 miles from the centre. Continued strengthening is expected after Gonzalo exits the Caribbean region. There is some uncertainty regarding the forward speed beyond 60 hours. The DDM will continue to monitor the progress of Tropical Storm Gonzalo and provide updates accordingly. Please visit the DDM website at bviddm and subscribe for updates. Disclaimer: The Department of Disaster Management (DDM) is not an official Meteorological Office. The Information disseminated by the Department is gathered from a number of professional sources used or contracted by the DDM to provide such information. This information is to be used as a guide by anyone who has interest in local weather conditions. By no means can the DDM or the BVI Government be held accountable by anyone who uses this information appropriately for legal evidence or in justification of any decision which may result in the loss of finances, property or life.
Posted on: Mon, 13 Oct 2014 20:37:34 +0000
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