Base Building Cement, Insiders, SSTS and....Mid November....................... Saturday AM Update. 10:00AM Mammoth Mtn at the base lodge is showing 12+ inches of snow past 24 hours with 1.54 inches of water. That is about 7.75:1. IE heavy base building sierra cement! The freezing level took its good sweet time in coming down and so we have not received the accumulations expected in town, but the QPF has verified. For those checking Mammothweathers Snowmelt system data, the Dweeb pulled a Nerd and forgot to flip on the snow heater until 8:30am this morning. So the snow in the bucket is still melting and will tally up the precip over the next several hours…. The good news is that heater is now on for the winter! Expect the currently light snowfall to diminish to showers now, as the base of the upper Trof currently moving through the San Joaquin Valley exits the area tonight. The Dweebs do not expect more than another one or two inches at the most today in town. Temperatures: High today 38f -Low 18f – high Sunday 40f. Some thoughts for the Day: Most Falls patterns begin with inside sliders that generate a Cold Showery pattern for the Eastern Sierra and Santana conditions for Southern CA. So during this Fall we actually began with a moderate storm from the NW that will end up bringing up to 1.75 inches of water to the crest. What does that mean?….Probably nothing. However, I think that we still need to go through that inside slider pattern typical of Fall to get to winter. Beginning after mid month, I expect to see major amplification out over the eastern pacific with a full latitude ridge building between 145 to 140w and a cold system that drops NNW to SSE into the Great Basin. The actual trajectory will determine if there is snow in it for us. IE Whether it is off or on shore. We usually see this kind of pattern as we get into December. As mentioned earlier in a discussion, there will be some significant cold outbreaks later this month and especially during first half of December. When will this begin? Just after Mid November I believe. SSTA’s There is still a lot of warm water typical of the +PDO that extends all up the west coast. The water is warmer than normal to a lesser degree in the Gulf of AK. We will have to watch the cold water pool that has been extending eastward for the western pacific to see if some of that mixes into the gulf later this year. If the Warm Pool along the west coast that extends up into the Gulf of Ak is a persistent feature, that could form a block along the west coast and provide for a persistent path for Arctic Air into the nations mid section…especially with the -AO and -NAO forecasted this winter. In that case we’ll really need the help of the subtropical jet to over power that block. More Later…… Dr Howard and the Dweebs………………………:-) - See more at: mammothweather/#sthash.Djw1jr7H.dpuf
Posted on: Sat, 01 Nov 2014 19:31:35 +0000
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