Before The Wells Go Dry …Picturing A Nigeria Called Oloibiri by Soye Wilson Jamabo Like a thoroughly sapped, ruined and abandoned grandmother, left for dead, but truly dead, Oloibiri, in today’s Bayelsa State is today, the proverbial Siberia- place everyone knows but none wishes to go. Ironically, this same area changed everything Nigeria would ever be, either for good or evil. More than five decades ago, Oloibiri came to limelight. It was there, crude oil was first found in commercial quantity, and which proceed totally redefined Nigeria’s consumption culture, agricultural drive, economic management and indeed political considerations. With the easy petro-dollar Oloibiri provided, Nigeria did not need to waste time and energy on farming, or scramble for fertilisers; no use for the groundnut pyramids, cocoa, palm oil, tin and others. Since the oil well would never run dry and luckily sourced from a minority area without a voice, the political class quickly amended the rules of derivation. No longer resource control or at least 50 percent derivation, the new law became ‘oil, being a God-given gift belongs to all,’ hence must remain a national asset. This was to provide enough to fund the new resolve to pursue a monolithic economy anchored on oil. With Oloibiri in mind, a mega city called Abuja was built with such speed never heard of, politicians and top government officials became so rich, the country decided to import even toothpicks. Foreign trips became avenues to demonstrate the beauty of Oloibiri as those who were lucky to be within the pipeline of wealth, purchased palatial mansions as easily as a rich baby got play toys, and amassed wealth that could diminish the combined earnings of Mansa Musa of Mali. At the time, no one thought oil had expiry date. Today, the reality is that the first oil well in Oloibiri is dry and so are a few others and would follow many more. Like the historic marvel of a ship called Titanic that was thought unsinkable by its builders but did, with very disastrous consequences, Nigeria will someday become Oloibiri-sapped dry and abandoned. That is the reality. It is no longer if, but when? This means the familiar monthly Jamboree in Abuja for sharing of proceeds mainly from oil and gas among the federating states and the centre would be no more. Therefore, each state would look inwards to fund its civil service, political and judicial institutions, address basic health and education needs of the citizenry, provide potable drinking water, which, even with the abundance of oil and gas and accruing monthly windfalls, remains a pipedream, and most importantly maintain existing infrastructure. It also means that the federal government may no longer be able to afford the jumbo pay of National Assembly and Federal Executive Council members, fund the armed forces and other security agencies, maintain existing infrastructure and most importantly, retain the big brother figure to neighbouring African countries. To avoid that, government may consider higher taxes, remove subsidy on oil and pursue pay-cut not of the high and mighty but of the most vulnerable – the civil service and retirees, if the political discretions often exercised by greedy politicians and political soldiers alike, are any leads to go by. This is not a vain alarm. For four days, August 21 – 24, this year, Nigerian Editors, under the aegis of the Nigeria Guild of Editors (NGE) converged on Asaba, the Delta State capital, with Oloibiri on their mind. The event was the All Nigerian Editors Conference (ANEC) which chose as a theme Nigeria Beyond Oil: Role of the Editor. That programme had in attendance some of Nigeria’s best and brightest in Industry, Agriculture, Banking and Finance, Tourism, Economic Management and an Executive Session that had Governors in Nigeria painstakingly appraising the horror of an Oloibiri that stares us in the face. Truth is, Nigeria’s oil and gas earnings have dropped drastically on account of countless variables key among which is oil theft, pipeline vandalism and the steady disengagement of Nigeria’s multinational partners, especially Shell. Also, Nigeria, which once enjoyed a quasi-monopoly as the world fifth largest producer of crude oil may soon lose relevance on account of the fact that oil has been found in commercial quantity, in other African countries like Angola, Ghana, Zimbabwe and even South Africa, among others. But perhaps the most terrifying of the mix is the fact that Nigeria’s major export source, the United States of America (USA) may no longer have need for the once irresistible sweet crude, the Bonny Light. This is because the US now has its own alternative, in Shale Oil which reserves can last the global giants more than 100 years. This means, Nigeria would soon search elsewhere for buyers of what may be left of her crude oil. If Asia becomes an option then, Nigeria can hardly make economic headway after the huge transportation cost on account of distance. Besides, China, Nigeria’s likely option would prefer closer sources and opt to pay less to ensure trade advantage. On the other hand, if Africa becomes even a remote option for sale of the crude, then the economic reality of low demand chasing high supply and forcing down price would take its toll on Nigerian crude since many African countries would also be eager to sell theirs. Bottom-line is that even before the Oloibiri we fear, the signs of the present day are gloomy, too gloomy to do nothing; unless the disastrous choices earlier canvassed: workers pay-cut and all are options. This is why President of the Nigeria Guild of Editors, Femi Adesina titled his opening address at the Asaba Conference “Diversify or Die,” Alarmist as that might sound to BP patients, it is a mathematical certainty, a reason experts at the conference suggested varied options to avoid an Oloibiri tomorrow. President of the Dangote Group, Alhaji Aliko Dangote, Secretary to the Government of the Federation, Senator Anyim Pius Anyim, Minister for Culture and Tourism Chief Edem Duke, and his Agriculture counterpart among others took turns to picture not only the doom of doing nothing but also listed possible options that could prevent the feared catastrophic consequences. These include aggressive investment in Agriculture, production of by-products rather than depend on sale of crude oil and gas, through proactive engagement in petro-chemical and other allied industries and of course tourism. In the area of Agriculture, rice, cassava and other staple food needs must be grown locally to avoid the huge resources that go into food importation. With Nigerian cassava in very high demand in China and its local consumption value, an aggressive drive in that sector will no doubt provide an even bigger alternative to oil. The same is true of rice and other food needs. Experts agreed that Nigeria has the potential to grow food to feed not only her population but enough for exports with foreign earnings more than today’s dwindling crude proceeds can ever provide. What of tourism? Countries like Brazil and Israel make fortunes from that sector in very unimaginable degrees. With Nigeria’s rich and diverse cultural heritage and historic sites, and blessed with a favourable climate during the dry season, the country has no excuse not to tap from such resources to boost tourism of global pedigree. All these however, do not and cannot work in a vacuum. Basic infrastructure, especially steady electric power supply, access roads and communication are key requirements. Same is true of security, without which neither of the needs already listed can be met, not to think of the actualisation of the diversification, so badly needed. For now, Nigeria must rip her efforts in these directions or remain as vulnerable as a rat with one hole. My Agony is that when the doomsday eventually comes, the most affected shall be the oil-producing areas, especially the Niger Delta with nothing tangible to drive its own survival beyond oil and no meaningful incentive to sustenance them beyond Oloibiri. Methinks state governments within the Niger Delta need to do more in the areas of Agriculture, small and medium-scale industries and also tourism development. They must start now to invest more in education as a way of equipping the youth for the challenges of the future.
Posted on: Thu, 11 Sep 2014 00:04:08 +0000
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