Below is a letter I just submitted to the Transylvania Times for consideration: Power Shift: Divest from Fossil Fuels before the Bubbles Burst We’ve all experienced the disastrous results of bursting economic bubbles on several occasions over the past 20 years. Be prepared for more bursting bubbles in the energy markets. One can argue that the nuclear bubble burst several years ago when the cost of generating electricity with nuclear power became more expensive than all other methods, including wind and solar. The ongoing Fukashima-Daichi disaster, in Japan doesn’t help the nuclear industry either. The high cost of generating nuclear power coupled with issues of safety, security, water supply, extremely long term lethal waste storage, and the 15-25 years of construction, testing, and licensing needed before a single watt of power is generated caused nuclear power investors to look for sounder places to put their money. Wall Street is not interested in nuclear power, deeming it too risky. If the “nuclear renaissance” is ever to come about, it will advance on the back of taxpayer or ratepayer funding. In the current political and economic climate, I can’t imagine that happening. A few years ago, the price of wind-, and in the past few months, the price of solar-generated electricity achieved parity with coal-fired electricity, or became even cheaper. At present, the costs of environmental cleanup required by coal-fired generation, such as habitat loss due to mountain-top removal, air pollution, water pollution, soil pollution, ocean acidification, toxic coal-ash disposal, and public health concerns, like asthma and heavy metal toxicity, are all borne by the taxpayers through a myriad of government agencies and programs. If we added these costs to the price of coal-fired electricity to relieve taxpayers of these unwarranted tax burdens, coal would become even less appealing. The cost of mining coal will never decrease, while the cost of renewable energy sources continues to decline at an exponential rate. I conclude that the coal bubble is poised for an explosive bursting, probably within the next year or two. The age of the electric automobile has finally dawned. Now that it is here, competition and innovation are advancing technology in this arena at an accelerating pace among the major automobile manufacturers. It will take a few more years for the market to adapt to the new game on the road. If we were to include the environmental costs of running our cars on petroleum to the price of gasoline, the current price of fuel would seem laughably cheap. The costs of air, water, ocean, and soil pollution, security of the sea lanes to insure safe passage of petroleum imports, and the costs of foreign wars and propping up petrodictators to insure a steady supply of petroleum from countries that don’t like us are rapidly brightening the appeal of an electric car fueled by renewable energy resources. I can’t imagine what the price of gasoline would be if all of the costs of two wars in Iraq were factored in to the price at the pump. These considerations certainly weaken my resolve to continue driving an automobile powered by an internal combustion engine, as I do now. The petroleum bubble will be the next to burst. Free market forces will determine how quickly this happens but I won’t be surprised to see it within 5 years. Methane, or natural gas, as we call it, will have the longest life of any of the fossil fuels. At present, it is relatively abundant and costs considerably less per watt of power than coal or petroleum. It is still, however, a nonrenewable resource. The price will only go up as demand for methane expands and existing gas fields are depleted. When environmental costs are factored in, it is not nearly the panacea to our energy requirements that many in the media and industry would have us believe. The gas bubble eventually must follow the path of nuclear, coal, and oil. It will also burst but that may be a decade or two down the road. All three of these industries will shrink dramatically and settle into niche markets. Instead of being used as fuels, they will become material resources. This will be an enormous benefit to humanity and the planet. If we don’t continue to poison the planet by burning these resources up over the next century, they could serve our descendants for millennia. For instance, the value of a barrel of petroleum used in pharmaceuticals is well over $1,000 but we don’t need millions of barrels of it every day. If we make this transition, our descendants may regard us as a wise generation rather than decry us as fools, which they would do if we continue our fossil fuel reliance. This is a fascinating time to be alive. It is the age of the Power Shift. We can attempt to cling to the dying, dirty, nonrenewable energy systems we grew up with and suffer the consequences of their bursting bubbles and hidden tax burdens or we can move our energy investments over to clean, renewable energy technologies and thrive off of the abundant free energy that nature provides to us. I am calling on my employer, Brevard College, to divest of any investments that it holds in the fossil fuel industries. The consequences of a bursting bubble will result in much less hardship for the institution if there are no holdings of these industries or their financiers in the College portfolio. It would also behoove the citizens of Brevard and Transylvania County if our elected officials resolved to divest our governments of any holdings in these industries. The Power Shift is just beginning. Even some of my more conservative friends acknowledge that market forces and tax burdens caused by the necessary environmental stewardship contribute to numbering the days in which fossil fuels will prevail. We can choose to expend limited funds to fight the Power Shift or we can use those funds to adapt to the new cleaner energy systems and to go with the flow. Ultimately, the flow will win; the quicker we adapt to the change, the better off we will be as a society. Sincerely, Jim Reynolds Chair, Pisgah Group of the North Carolina Sierra Club Professor of Geology, Brevard College
Posted on: Mon, 15 Jul 2013 16:38:59 +0000
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