#Bihar #CMs Chamcha Bats for 3rd Front. If UPA Cannot be formed, Secular Parties combine to keep Communal BJP out. Why odds favour non-Congress, non-BJP parties gaining ground in 2014: Pavan K Varma On 30th Oct leaders of Left Front, SP, JD (U), AIADMK, BJD, JD (S) & Few other parties are to meet in Delhi to attend a convention against communalism. Coming together of such parties to robustly oppose, at ground level, spectre of deliberately provoked religious disharmony is a positive step, because single biggest factor which can allow such forces to succeed is disunity among those who oppose it. Expectedly, however, a meeting of this nature has also revived speculation on whether a new political alliance is in the making. A Third Front or a Federal Front has neither been formed yet, nor is it certain that it will. But, if there is one issue which unites Congress and BJP, it is their unqualified condemnation of such a possibility. Both believe that they alone have the divine right to form a government. Others can do so only in subsidiary alliance with them, or as dispensable cogs in their exclusive wheel. Until some years ago, this hubris was pardonable. However, the Congress vote base appears to have dramatically shrunk, leaving it far short of the majority mark. BJP, with Modi at the helm, has chosen a path of muscular communalism which will get it neither allies, nor anywhere close to a majority. Both parties are no longer strictly national, because there are many major states where neither of them has a credible footprint. This makes a coalition government inevitable. The question before the electorate is: is a coalition led by one of these two parties necessarily better than an alternative Front led by a collective of other parties and non-Congress, non-BJP, forces. Coalitions led by BJP or Congress in the past have not necessarily provided greater political stability or better governance. They may have somehow lasted their full term, but with many unethical political compromises and lopsided or sub-optimal governance, of which the last 15 years are witness. Apart from intra-coalition strains, even within themselves, the two main parties have hardly been united. Divisions within Congress, between the PM and the de facto focus of power outside govt, hardly need elaboration. In BJP, internecine warfare at highest level for the nomination of Modi as its PM candidate was watched by the whole nation, and the party is at war even on who will lead it for Delhi assembly elections. Of course, past attempts by non-Congress and non-BJP parties to form a government have fared, perhaps, even worse. Their leaders lacked experience, including of running a government; they sought to forge unity on the emotional velocity of opposing the larger entity rather than rigorous electoral and ideological understandings; they were over-ambitious, seeking to overarch insuperable fault lines, such as roping in fundamentally opposed parties like BJP & Left for outside support; and, they displayed certain innocence in assessing the motivations of the two bigger parties, reading genuine intent for rank expediency in offers of support. Has anything changed now as we head into the elections of 2014? Firstly, what is transparent is qualitative transformation in strength of parties other than Congress and BJP, almost in inverse proportion to shrinking political bases of these two. Secondly, there has been emergence of new leadership. Names of Nitish Kumar, Naveen Patnaik, Jayalalithaa, Mulayam Yadav, Mayawati, Mamata Banerjee and Jagan Reddy come to mind. Many of these leaders have a demonstrable popular base and a proven track record of good governance and political maturity. Thirdly, grassroots strength of these parties more than offsets the possibility of any reduction in the seat strength of the Left parties that have been the anchors of non-Congress, non-BJP alliances in the past. Fourthly, such parties have by now far greater experience of their nominees operating at the Centre, and of dealing with both Congress and BJP. Fourthly, they seem to have shed immature exuberance of political adolescence: they know the limits of the feasible, and are aware of what needs to be done on the ground to achieve whats doable. The question is whether together, or in some combination from among them, these others can form a gov at the Centre, or at the very least, influence the direction and priorities of any other govt that is formed. I believe the answer to this question is yes. For the first time such parties have an opportunity to influence the Centre, not as a mechanical opposition to either BJP or Congress, but as a conscious attempt to forge an alternative vision to both, based on an agreed agenda of good governance, equitable Centre-state relations, inclusive growth and secularism. Will such meeting of minds bring about requisite internal discipline and unity, and eschewing of sterile ego-driven posturing, to lead to something more? This is too early to say, but the national political scene is changing before our eyes.
Posted on: Sat, 26 Oct 2013 01:14:57 +0000
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