Blunder Dr Farrukh Saleem Sunday, November 30, 2014 The only political force that can bring down the PML-N government is the PML-N. The PTI has goals but no strategy to achieve them. The PTI’s game-plan of bringing down the government is all about the PML-N committing a blunder, a big one. Expecting that your opponent will blunder – blunder big – and using that expectation as a strategy is no strategy. The PML-N is in a mess but doesn’t have a strategy to get out of it. The PML-N’s game-plan is all about limping, stumbling and bumbling towards 2018. Expecting that your political opponents will just fade away and then using that expectation as a strategy is no strategy. Political capital has three components: voters’ trust, voters’ goodwill and influence over political and non-political actors. No strategy can be implemented without political capital. And PM Nawaz Sharif is running very low on political capital. The PML-N has three choices. One, completely overhaul its form of governance and come up with a brand-new form that is designed to deliver what the voters want (and as consequence accumulate political capital). Two, a political compromise with the PTI. Three, limp, stumble and bumble towards 2018. The PTI has a charismatic leader, a powerful message, passionate activists and a popular urban following. These four elements are necessary to bring down a government – but not sufficient. The PML-N is up against a series of protests which are ‘expressions of objection’ to the form of governance and the non-delivery of what the voters’ desire. Protests are necessary but not sufficient to bring down a government. A revolt, on the other hand, is a “violent action against an established government or ruler”. And history is witness that revolts have toppled governments. The PTI would love to convert its protests into a revolt. For a revolt to take place the PTI would have to form alliances, both horizontally and vertically. The PML-N must come up with a counter-strategy. The incumbent government in Jordan dodged a revolt through a set of constitutional reforms. The incumbent government in Morocco pacified a potential rebellion by introducing constitutional reforms. The absolute monarchy in Saudi Arabia literally bought stability by starting out multi-billion dollar projects that distributed billions of petro-dollars to other stakeholders. The fact on the ground is that Pakistanis are frustrated. And widespread individual frustration given the right catalyst can move into collective aggression. Revolts have two components – unfulfilled desires of the masses and arrogance of the rulers. The PML-N has two choices: reform or repress. Reforms bring down the level of frustration while repression must be followed up by more repression. Our police are ill-equipped materially. Our police are neither given any anti-riot training nor imparted with crowd management skills. On top of that, a government that lacks a strategy is unable to pass down clear, actionable orders. Water cannons and rubber bullets are no substitute for strategy. What we are witnessing is not a revolution because a revolution cannot be manufactured it just comes. What we are witnessing is widespread individual frustration moving towards collective aggression. The PTI is strategy-less and the PML-N is overconfident. Remember, the only political actor that can bring down the PML-N is the PML-N. Blunder is to “move or act blindly or stupidly”. In chess, blunder is an extremely bad move caused by overconfidence.
Posted on: Sun, 30 Nov 2014 08:22:41 +0000
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