Boeing 777 vanishes: likely causes We think a lot about the aerospace industry here at Actio, so weve been able to compile an assessment of the missing Boeing 777 that vanished last Friday, March 10 at 1:30 PM EST in the Far East. Malaysia Flight 370 likely explanations The fact that pilots did not extend a distress call indicates that whatever caused the plane disappearance was either sudden and violent or was forced and procluded normal protocol, i.e., sending a distress signal. Recent reports from the Malaysian military say the plane was hundreds of miles off course when it disappeared from radar, heading in the wrong direction. The last radar track has the plane over the Strait of Malacca, a busy shipping lane between Malaysia and Indonesia. The strait is nowhere near the expected flight path between Kuala Lumpur and Beijing. What could have happened? Explanations are:boeing 777 missing over malaysia A hijacking with delayed demand scenario, meaning plane was flown to a secret location and demands will be forthcoming (unlikely, as so much time has passed without hijackers demanding something) A hijacking and downing Plane downed by pilot, technically not a hijacking Pilot disorientation and crash (unlikely as there wouldve been time for someone to contact air traffic control) A power failure couldve turned off the main transponder and its backup, and the plane could have flown for more than an hour by disoriented pilots with no power (a complete and total power failure is rare, and not one but two disoriented pilots? Very unlikely) Simultaneous dual engine failure (unlikely in general; very unlikely in fair weather; very very unlikely here as there would have been ample time for pilots to contact ground control) Plane shot down either accidentally or on purpose (it happens, but not often, a search engine will pull up a few commercial planes that have been downed this way) A discharged explosive device: sudden, violent, thorough (recall Lockerbie) The plane that disappeared is a Boeing 777, is one of the safest planes in the air. Its only fatal crash in its nearly 20 year run was last summer, when a pilot missed a landing at San Francisco Airport (three people died). So the suggestion that Malaysian Flight 370 just broke apart mid-air seems highly unlikely. There is the possibility of a catastrophic structural failure of the airframe or its Rolls-Royce Trent 800 engines, notes the AP. Most aircraft are made of aluminum which is susceptible to corrosion over time, especially in areas of high humidity. But this seems unlikely, it would be the first inkling of such a cataclysmic result from a small bit of corrosion. Facts Heres whats known about the missing plane, Malaysian Flight 370: Flight vanished on Friday, March 8, at 1:30 PM (New York time) The Malaysian Air Force lost track of the plane over Pulau Perak, a small island in the straits of Malacca The Malaysian Airlines Boeing 777-200ER has an excellent safety record Plane was at the safest part of its journey when it stopped transponding (takeoff/landing are least-safe) There was no weather: no cold, ice, wind or storm events Flight captain had over 30 years of experience, first officer new to the 777 (red flag!), two passengers had fake passports Pilots did not send a distress communication to air traffic control Needle in haystack Hairline fractures in the wings have been reported this week in Boeing 787 Dreamliner aircraft currently in production, but the 787 is a much different, newer plane. Boeing said no planes already in use would have been affected.) Since the start of the jet age in 1958, only a few jets have vanished and not been found. It turns out that finding things in the ocean is harder than it looks. Consider that it took four searches over nearly two years to find the bulk of Air Frances Flight 447s wreckage in 2009 after it vanished without a trace over the Atlantic. It took even longer to establish the crash cause, which was an unlikely cocktail of human error, bad weather, and a handful of real — but not in themselves catastrophic — technical malfunctions. Remember also, it took 70 years to find the Titanic, and we knew precisely where it sank. Here is an interesting list some people are working on: unexplained downed aircraft. Probably not alien For those who are wondering, and I know youre out there, the Malaysian Flight 370 disappearance was probably not related to alien intervention: there wouldve been a distress call and likely some radar evidence of nearby craft. Boeing joins NTSB to search Boeing announced this morning it is joining the U.S. National Transportation Safety Board team as a technical advisor. The team has traveled to the region of Flight 370s disappearance and hopes to provide assistance on finding the missing flight. We hope this synopsis has helped you stay informed. (There is so much to know about aviation!) I believe we speak for all members of the Actio Network — including company employees, customers and curious folks reading this blog — when we say our heartfelt sympathies are with family and friends of the missing passengers and crew.
Posted on: Thu, 13 Mar 2014 16:21:45 +0000
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