Boko Haram and Africa’s Continuing Threats By the Soufan Group Bottom Line Up Front • Boko Haram, a terrorist organization that collaborates with al-Qaeda affiliates, has existed in Nigeria in various forms since the late 1990s; it employs targeted and indiscriminate violence to terrorize areas of the northeast • Boko Haram is not the only problem in Nigeria’s north as offshoots such as Ansaru—along with on-going sectarian and ethnic conflicts—have their own narratives of violence • Boko Haram’s exploitation of porous borders is causing problems for neighboring states such as Mali, Niger, Chad and Cameroon. An Evil Ascending While much of the world news media has focused attention on better-known terrorist groups throughout the Middle East and North Africa, a smaller group based in Nigeria has steadily increased its tempo of violence over the past four years, waging an insurgency against the Nigerian government. That group, Boko Haram (or, “Western education is sinful,” in the local Hausa language), has existed in various forms since the late 1990s. It took its name in 2002, and coalesced into its present incarnation around 2009. Operating out of northeastern Nigeria, the group has built a reputation for vicious, indiscriminate attacks that cause large numbers of casualties to both Christian and Muslim citizens of the local population. It is estimated that these attacks have killed more than 1,700 people since Boko Haram initiated its terror campaign four years ago. Though the group suffered a string of setbacks while battling Nigerian government forces in 2009, such as the death of its founder and former leader Muhammad Yusuf, Boko Haram has rebounded with a vengeance. Staging multiple attacks on a weekly basis, Boko Haram has not limited its attacks to strategically important targets designed for maximum shock effect and press coverage. Instead the group, now led by former second-in-command Abubakar Shekau, has taken a shotgun blast approach attacking a wide range of victims to include media outlets, schools, politicians, police and government security forces as well as the United Nations headquarters building in the capital of Abuja. A suspected Boko Haram attack on September 29 resulted in the deaths of more than 40 students of the Yobe State College of Agriculture. All of the victims were Muslims, according to some reports. What Boko Haram lacks in focus it makes up in aggression. The UN estimates that between 3,000-8,000 refugees have fled to neighboring countries since May. Boko Haram, however, is not the only terrorist element in northern Nigeria. One of its violent offshoots is known as Ansaru (shorthand for its Arabic name, Jama’at al-Ansar al-Muslimin fi Bilad al-Sudan, Community of Protectors of Muslims in Black Africa). Ansaru also claims to speak on behalf of extreme takfiri Islam and exists to defend Muslims, in the words of its leader Abu Ussamata al-Ansary. In the murky nature of such dangerous territory, Ansaru sometimes appears to be Boko Haram rival, formed liked all factions in the country along strong tribal and ethnic lines. At other times, though, there are indications it coordinates terrorist operations with Boko Haram. According to Nigeria’s National Intelligence Agency estimate of 2012, Boko Haram and like elements will continue to instigate chronic conflicts among the ethnic population of the northeastern states. Moreover, the estimate listed existing or growing terrorist safe haves in swaths of Mali, Niger, Chad, Burkina Faso, Senegal, and other countries of North and West Africa. In May, Nigeria launched a campaign to deal with the extremist problem, pursuing a dual track strategy of amnesty for insurgents and state of emergency. Its campaign to destroy Boko Haram turned even more aggressive as the military declared “all out war,” though the government’s tactics—and emerging vigilante counter-groups—have not had much effect to date. It’s not a military defeat, however, that poses most significant near-term danger to Boko Haram. Indeed, its biggest threat is losing base of support. Much like al-Shabab and its extreme violence against the civilian population in Somalia, Boko Haram runs the risk of losing its supporters and causing a backlash with indiscriminate and repeated killings of Muslims. Strategic Assessment The new al-Qaeda doesn’t seem to have a problem, at this point, with Boko Haram’s current tactics. According to Nigerian government reporting, Boko Haram and al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM), the main Qaeda affiliate in North Africa, struck a 2010 agreement to coordinate training, recruitment and funding. The link between the two groups is reportedly becoming stronger, suggesting that al-Qaeda franchises such as AQIM are leveraging Boko Haram’s efforts, to further expand al-Qaeda’s sphere of influence. An al-Qaeda link will tend to benefit the group with financial, recruitment and even operational support. Moreover, the Qaeda brand lends a certain air of legitimacy, and, with some groups, inspiration for increased lethality. However, with Boko Haram’s current modus operandi of indiscriminate killing, it not only runs the risk of making follow Muslims adversaries, but also drawing more attention—and dedicated counterterrorism efforts—from Western nations. Short Term Forecast ➣ Without outside assistance, the Nigerian military will be unable to stem the tide of destruction wrought by Boko Haram. This will allow the group to continue to strike targets when and where it chooses, causing further disarray and destruction in the northeast and to border areas in the region ➣ Boko Haram attacks will continue to increase the number of displaced persons and refugees streaming out of the country which, in turn, will negatively impact Nigeria’s economy as farmers, cattle ranchers and business owners escape for safer areas. This economic downturn will threaten to weaken the Nigerian government, making it more susceptible to Boko Haram’s threats ➣ Continued Boko Haram attacks on schools, teaches, and students will increasingly intimidate citizens to abandon formal education, with correlating negative impact for the region Long Term Forecast ➣ With the US and other Western nations finally realizing the threat posed in the region by Boko Haram, the Nigerian government will begin to receive increased financing and other support in an attempt to counter the group and its activities ➣ Al-Qaeda will continue to encourage and inspire AQIM and affiliates like Boko Haram, as long as the group becomes more discriminate in its targets and actively attempts to avoid Muslim casualties ➣ If Boko Haram achieves a higher level of operational sophistication, particularly against the government’s ineffective counter strategies and failure to address underlying causes of violence, the group will prove a greater threat to Nigeria’s rich oil fields and related infrastructure.
Posted on: Tue, 08 Oct 2013 12:18:53 +0000
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