Brazils economy: winning the 2014 World Cup? By La Recontra Oferta Newspaper LRON at San JOse, CA US !7:45PM 07.14.2014 Brazil 2014 has been the most expensive in the history of the tournament. Will the financial gain or be remembered as a waste? The ghost of 7-1 against Germany pursue long Brazilians, but the World is not only the bad memories: also have an economic benefit to the country, which some question. Follow Portfolio on Twitter and Facebook Will greater economic hangover that football or, conversely, the benefits are long-term consolation for a crushing defeat? According to the insurer Euler Hermes World Cup will add 0.2% to the growth of the Brazilian gross domestic product (GDP) and 0.5% to inflation. Brazils economy: winning the 2014 World Cup? Modest gains having to GDP are offset by inflationary pressure. Imported products required for infrastructure such as glass, plastic and cement out more expensive by Brazilian economic protectionism. Same thing happened with TVs and other consumer products he told the BBC World Ludovric Subran, chief economist of the insurance company Euler Hermes. Instead, the international consulting firm Ernst and Young, predicts economic impact increase fivefold investment. Our estimate is that there will be a cascading effect on the entire Brazilian economy. A investment in infrastructure that began in 2010 and will continue after the World Cup must be added the impact on consumption, tax revenues and business done and made thanks to the World Cup, he told BBC director of strategic markets Ernst & Young Nicolas Marcos. INVESTMENT AND INFRASTRUCTURE When Brazil was selected based in 2007, submitted a report to the International Football Federation, FIFA, which calculated a cost of $ 1,100 million in sports infrastructure. Only in this item the amount spent on 12 stadiums soared to U.S. $ 3,300 million. The total expenditure of the World Cup climbed to over U.S. $ 11,000 million, the highest in history. In 2010 South Africa spent $ 6,000 million; in Germany, home of the World 2006, some U.S. $ 2,000 million; France 98 and U.S. 94, less than U.S. $ 1,000 million. With eight years away from the event, the German Institute for Economic Research in Berlin (DIW, for its acronym in German) believes that the economic impact of the World Cup 2006 (Brazil and now) was zero. Brazils economy: winning the 2014 World Cup? In our studies we found no measurable impact on Germany. And just did a study on Brazil with the same result. Thought that all that money would have been better spent on human capital in stages, he told the BBC Karl Brenke, DIW. Part of the problem is that measuring costs is relatively easy: much harder to quantify the benefits. According to Peter Grant, a specialist in sports economics and Cass Business School in London, this difference becomes highly hypothetical assessment of cost-effectiveness. The impact of tourism and the added consumption are difficult to measure. Infrastructure generation depends on the use to which it will provide. And there are other factors as the prestige and exposure gained from a country that becomes known to an entire planet. has this a particular accounting profit? he told the BBC. WHITE ELEPHANTS The stadium construction has a Keynesian stimulation effect, creating jobs that enters the consumption function as an economic activator. In some cases, stadiums as the Maracana in Rio de Janeiro will be life after the World Cup, but its hard to see the use for the $ 300 million that was spent on the stage of the fascinating northern city of Manaus, with capacity for 40,000 spectators. With an average of 1,500 fans for home games, the stadium may end up being the very costly empty storefront in a very short holiday. According to the Brazilian journalist and writer Flavio Aguiar, Brazil has a strategy to prevent these stadiums end up being white elephants. It has transformed football stadiums arenas that will prolong its useful beyond the global life. This is fundamental. A arena is a multipurpose space that can be used for other sports, shows, conventions, etc.. he told the BBC. Brazils economy: winning the 2014 World Cup? Example of this concept is the Mane Garrincha Brasilia, which in its 36 years of existence received 340,000 viewers and in the six months since it was transformed into arena hosted 27 mega with an attendance of 640,000 spectators. Other analysts predict a future of light and shadow. It is very difficult to convert these stages in successful event centers because they need a permanent clientele, such as football can give to justify not only the cost of the work but also the maintenance required, Grant said. TOURISM AND ECONOMIC ACTIVITY The official estimate is that about 600,000 foreigners came to Brazil for the World Cup. This domestic tourism of about 1.3 million Brazilians who went to different locations to follow the games adds. According to the BBC he said Claudia Sanz, of the Office of Tourism of Brazil, the estimated total expenditure was 6.69 billion reais about half dollar, just over $ 3,000 million. This expenditure was concentrated in hotels, apartment rentals and autos, transport, bars, pubs, restaurants and nightclubs. The bars were big winners of the World Cup. Brazils economy: winning the 2014 World Cup? Before the event we were concerned that the media coverage it seemed that the stadiums were to fall and blood will flow in the streets. None of that happened and bars had an increase in activity of 30%, comparable to what happens to end of the year, said Percival Maricato, the Brazilian Association of Bars and Restaurants. The estimate is that 12,000 bill billion reais ($ 5.4 billion), three billion more than the same month last year. The border tourism was particularly important for this increased consumption. The estimate of the Ministry of Tourism on visits to St. Paul in the first round of the tournament showed that of the 121 thousand foreigners, Argentina topped the table with 31.71%, followed by Chile (17.7%), Uruguay (8.01%) and Colombia (5.05%), then followed by the United States and England (4.18% each), Netherlands (3.48%) and Mexico (2.61%). Unlike most geographically and culturally distant countries, this is a high potential for tourism to return home and be a peddler of Brazil as a destination. The impact of the World Cup is different from that at the Olympic Games held in different parts of the country has a much larger scope. Gigantic nation like Brazil has helped to put on the world tourist map to regions unknown Grant said. FINAL CALCULATION Of course, not everyone benefited. Among the losers is industrial activity that was impacted-yet-unquantified of holidays and distraction that produced the World. The final calculation done soon because it is composed of a very diverse body of data on both short and long term that will feed the debate for years. State Agency for Export Promotion (ApexBrasil) estimated that could close export business and foreign investment of some U.S. $ 9,000 million to 2,300 executives invited by Brazilian companies for the event with tickets for games in five offices: Brasilia, Sao Paulo, Rio de Janeiro, Fortaleza and Belo Horizonte. The Brazilian domestic tourism and increased consumption are other factors that may only be known when they come official measurements of economic activity in late July and should be equally weighted in relation to other variables. Brazils economy: winning the 2014 World Cup? According to the chief economist of Euler Hermes, Ludovric Subran, the positive long-term effect will be more reforms that Brazil will be forced to make the impact on growth. The World Cup has served as an alarm that has put the focus on things that they were not.s Need for more and better investment in essential services such as transport, education and health and the havoc it can cause protectionism. the pressure for the government to act on these issues can be a much more durable and economically significant effect, he told the BBC. It is the opinion of Marcos Nicolas, Ernst and Young. One thing I did not remove the other. Investments in health, education, etc. have to be made, but it was important all this investment in infrastructure and this projection of Brazil to the world, he told BBC News.
Posted on: Tue, 15 Jul 2014 00:54:57 +0000
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