/* But the work of Philip Tetlock and his team at the Good Judgment Project – funded by the US governments Intelligence Advanced Research Project (Iarpa) – points to new ways of thinking about geopolitical forecasting, and the question of what makes a person better-equipped to predict world events. A few people, the project has revealed, have extraordinary talents for seeing the future – might you be one of them? So, what makes Hare such a good forecaster? His success, he says, comes down not to knowledge but his capacity for “active, open-minded thinking”: applying the scientific method to look rigorously at data, rather than seeking to impose a given narrative on a situation. This years crop of “supers” includes a number of finance workers, as well as an animator, an oil painter, and someone who made factory machinery. “I think the advantage I have is that I was a massive ignoramus,” jokes Reed Roberts, another “super”, who joined the Good Judgment Project after reading about it in a blog. He’s finishing his PhD in chemistry, and was looking for a distraction from research and an impetus to follow the news more closely: only to find that he, too, had the skills necessary to become a super. He says he “didnt go into many of these questions with any particular attachment” or viewpoint he was hoping to prove or disprove. Instead, he thought narrowly – sometimes too narrowly – about “what it would take to resolve the question”. */ Abu Raccoon Al-Tamimi Dr. Bein Προμηθεὺς
Posted on: Tue, 20 Jan 2015 19:04:46 +0000
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