CFL Simulation: Stamps projected to win West RELATED: Full League Standings |Crossover Standings | Schedule |Tickets CFL.ca Staff TORONTO -- A computer simulation model is used to calculate the probabilities of any CFL team finishing first in its division. The model considers the following: • Each team’s current win-loss record • Opponents already played (including whether it was a home or away game) • Margin of victory (or loss) in games previously played in the season • Remaining opponents to be played (including whether those games are home or away) The model calculates each team’s probability of victory in each remaining game. It then simulates 10,000replications of the remaining regular season schedule. The first place team in each division is the one with the most regular season wins. For each replication, the model keeps track of which team finished first. For instance, if Winnipeg finished first in the Western Division in 1,990 of the 10,000 replications, then its first place probability is 1,990 / 10,000 = 19.90%. The model is updated weekly based on the results of games played that week. Here is a look at how the teams stack up: West DivisionTeamProjectionCalgary Stampeders 94.84%Saskatchewan Roughriders 2.94%Edmonton Eskimos2.20%BC Lions 0.02%Winnipeg Blue Bombers0% With their win over the Lions, the Stampeders seemingly have a stranglehold on the West Division. Their closest competitor are the Roughriders, who have a small 2.94 per cent chance of finishing on top of the West. East DivisionTeamProjectionHamilton Tiger-Cats 59.0%Toronto Argonauts 27.1%Montreal Alouettes13.9%Ottawa REDBLACKS 0% With five wins in 12 games, the Ticats sit on top of the projections list with a 59 per cent chance of winning the East. The Als, meanwhile, have a 13.9 per cent chance of winning the division, fewer than Torontos 27.1 despite the fact that they have more points.
Posted on: Wed, 01 Oct 2014 02:06:35 +0000
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