CHANTAL Tropical storm Chantal continues to race toward the Lesser Antilles where it will bring gusty winds and tropical rains during the day tomorrow. Atmospheric conditions have been generally favorable for strengthening but the fast forward motion has kept the low level circulation relatively weak. Slow intensification is expected as Chantal moves through the eastern Caribbean tomorrow and then lifts northward toward Hispaniola on Wednesday. The future of Chantal hinges largely on how much interaction it has with the mountainous terrain of Hispaniola and eastern Cuba. Not only could the circulation be disrupted by high terrain, but the environment will be less supportive of development by mid- to late week. If Chantal survives the trek into the Bahamas, model guidance suggests high pressure may build back over the western Atlantic, which would support strengthening while turning Chantal back toward the U.S. Intensity forecasting is notoriously difficult, especially with such uncertainty in the nuances of track. Bottom line: Chantal will bring gusty winds to the Leeward and Windward Islands on Tuesday, thereafter posing a flood threat to Haiti and the Dominican Republic. While impacts to the U.S. are less certain, the concern will be heavy rainfall to already saturated soils and swollen rivers across the southeast.
Posted on: Tue, 09 Jul 2013 22:29:36 +0000
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