CLIPPER STORM DISCUSSION/ADVISORIES: Good evening everyone. Just issued by the national weather service are winter weather advisories, which encompass the northern half of the national weather service Sterling, Virginia county warning forecast area. Counties included in this advisory in Maryland, allegany, Washington, Frederick, Montgomery, Carroll, Howard, Baltimore, Hartford, Anne Arundel, and prince Georges counties. This includes District of Columbia and the independent city of Baltimore. Portions of northern VA, eastern WV, and south central PA are also under winter weather advisories. For general laymens discussion, this advisory is in effect from 6 am until 6 pm on Wednesday for the metro areas of Baltimore and Washington and surrounding suburbs. 1-3 inches of snow with locally higher amounts within a local heavier band of snow would be probable. The highest snow totals would likely be from Baltimore City and I 70 northward to and through the Mason Dixon line as the axis of the vort max associated with this clipper system passes by just to our south. That combined with some added fluff factor would maximize the potential for this storm near the Baltimore area and points further to the north. There is also potential that coastal low pressure revs up off the Delmarva coast by later tomorrow, which would draw in enhanced moisture and colder air on the back side and enhance snow into portions of the Delmarva, particularly upper Delmarva, along mason dixon line, the delaware valley, and possibly the jersey shore by Wednesday afternoon and evening respectively. I highly anticipate issuances of high end winter weather advisories for the upper Delmarva and the jersey shore regions and to Delaware valley/including the Philadelphia metro area to account for locally 3 inches plus of snow. Some areas along mason dixon line could see a 3-4 inch amount where temps are colder and snow-liquid ratios are higher. Once again this is an Alberta clipper, the type of storms that are limited of deep moisture, but just enough dynamics and precipitation to cause annoyance and travel problems, possibly hazardous travel conditions for awhile due to a couple of inches of snow in some spots and a flash freeze combined later tomorrow into tomorrow night. LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: High pressure settles in Thursday into Friday with benign calm weather the result. Then we focus on a potentially major coastal storm event for Saturday. The global models we see continue to indicate a potentially significant and legit coastal storm along the east coast on Saturday with colder air drawing in on the back side of this. The final map in this sequence is a model guidance showing the potential snow amounts based on the 10:1 snow:liquid ratio courtesy of the GFS model for this weekend. The european model has a similar solution of a mix turning quickly over to heavy snow over the metro areas and points to the north and west. This is just a model guidance, not an official snow forecast, but its worth a mention and discussion given some huge events going on this weekend. The polar bear plunge at sandy point could certainly be quite interesting with a coastal storm, higher elevated tides due to the new moon, and snow hazards potentially in the cards. But this is a good indication we are trending colder and stormier on Saturday. Ill analyze this further later tonight. If that wasnt enough, we got a third storm potentially on the cards for early next week as well as dangerously cold air, possibly single digit low temperatures sometime during the middle to latter part of next week over a portion of the mid Atlantic region as a deep upper trough amplifies and a pair of 500 millibar polar lows pivot down towards Hudson Bay. Were talking potentially some of the coldest air of the season coming up next week. Combine that with a blocking high over the North Atlantic, another high over the north pole, and also in the western United States gives us a perfect recipe for extreme cold to just blow in from the deep arctic with a negative arctic oscillation and some signals of a negative North Atlantic oscillation overtime. The colder air and added storminess does enhance our snow chances here in the mid Atlantic during the next 5-15 days or so. Lets closely watch this changing and evolving weather pattern!! Will talk more about the weekend and long range outlook in much greater detail after tomorrows clipper annoyance rolls through the region. Be extremely careful driving tomorrow, travel could become hazardous and we all know what even a little snow with a flash freeze combined can do!!! Common sense is the best option.
Posted on: Tue, 20 Jan 2015 20:23:53 +0000
Trending Topics
Recently Viewed Topics
© 2015