CURRENT CYCLONE INFORMATION As of 5:00 AM PhT today...2100 GMT... Location: Over the South Philippine Sea (near 7.5N 128.1E) About: 180 km east-southeast of Cateel, Davao Oriental...or 225 km east-northeast of Mati City Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min avg): 55 kph near the center...Gustiness: 75 kph 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (near the center): Extreme [400 mm] Size (in diameter): Small (445 km) Past Movement: South at 17 kph Forecast Movement: Southwest at 13 kph Towards: Sea south of Davao Oriental 2-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK* TD Lingling (Agaton) is expected to move southwest to west-southwest within the next 24 to 48 hours. On the forecast track, the core of TD Lingling (Agaton) will pass just along the southern coast of Davao Oriental on Monday early morning...and move across Celebes Sea, passing very near the coast of Davao Del Sur and Sarangani through Tuesday early morning. TD Lingling (Agaton) is expected to continue losing strength within the next 12 hours and will weaken further into an area of low pressure through 24 hours due to its passage across the unfavorable environment of the Celebes Sea and the mountainous terrain of Southern Mindanao. Advance Intensity Forecast (AIF) shows its 1-minute maximum sustained winds decreasing to 30 km/hr on Tuesday early morning. The following is the summary of the 2-day forecast outlook on this system: MONDAY EARLY MORNING: Weakens further to a weak TD as it passes along the southern coast of Davao Oriental [2AM JAN 20: 6.2N 126.8E @ 45kph]. TUESDAY EARLY MORNING: Weakens into an area of low pressure as it turns westward...just along the southern coasts of Davao Del Sur and Sarangani [2AM JAN 21: 5.5N 125.2E @ 30kph]. *Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time. POTENTIAL HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND Below are the regions or places with possible or ongoing effects caused by the current tropical cyclone: CARAGA / NORTHERN MINDANAO / NORTHERN DAVAO REGION - Heavy rains of 50 to 100 mm will be experienced along these areas...becoming extreme rains of more than 100 mm along the provinces of Surigao Del Sur, Agusan Provinces, Compostela Vallay, and the northern portions of Davao Oriental through Sunday evening. Residents living along the hazard-prone areas are advised to take precautionary measures against flashfloods and landslides. NORTHERN SOCCSKSARGEN / NORTHERN ARMM - Moderate to heavy rains of 30-50 mm will be experienced along these areas through Sunday evening. Residents living along hazard-prone areas are advised to take precautionary measures against flashfloods and landslides. Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook and hazards summary changes every 6 to 12 hrs! CURRENT TECHNICAL INFORMATION Time/Date: 5:00 AM PhT Sun Jan 19, 2014 Class/Name: TD Lingling (Agaton) Location of Center: Near 7.5º N Lat 128.1º E Lon Distance 1: 180 km ESE of Cateel, Davao Oriental Distance 2: 215 km ESE of Bislig City Distance 3: 225 km ENE of Mati City Distance 4: 280 km ENE of Metro Davao Distance 5: 355 km ENE of General Santos City MaxWinds (1-min avg): 55 kph near the center Peak Wind Gusts: 75 kph Past Movement: S @ 17 kph Forecast Movement: SW @ 13 kph Towards: Sea south of Davao Oriental Minimum Central Pressure: 1000 millibars (hPa)
Posted on: Sun, 19 Jan 2014 01:18:00 +0000
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