CURRENT STATUS: As of 11AM AST, Hurricane Gonzalo was located near 23.5N 68W or about 640 miles SSW of Bermuda. Gonzalo has maximum winds of 115kts with gusts to 140kts and is tracking towards the NW at 10kts. STORM FORECAST: Gonzalo continues to track NW around the southwestern periphery of the Atlantic ridge. The hurricane is expected to take a northerly turn early Thursday before heading NNE and accelerating late in the day on Thursday and into Friday as the system interacts with a trough of low pressure moving off the East Coast. Gonzalo accelerates towards Newfoundland over the weekend. This means Gonzalo will continue tracking generally towards the northern half of the US coastline over the next 12-24hrs. After that, a turn towards the N then NNE will bring the hurricane close to Bermuda on Friday. The hurricane, or the post-tropical remnants of Gonzalo, potentially impacts Newfoundland during the weekend. For more information please monitor the official NHC forecast. The storm is expected to be in a favorable environment over the next 24-36hrs. However, a storm of this strength can fluctuate in intensity due to difficult to predict changes in the inner structure. As such, the National Hurricane Center forecast suggests Gonzalo has reached close to peak intensity. Beyond 36hrs the environment around Gonzalo will become less favorable due to increasing vertical wind shear and cooler water temperatures. This will result in Gonzalo weakening late this week before undergoing extratropical transition this weekend. Good Things About Hurricane Gonzalo as it pertains to East Coast swell: 1. Gonzalo is a Category 4 hurricane, the strongest in the Atlantic basin since 2011. 2. Favorable forecast track generally towards the US East Coast (especially the northern half of the EC) over the past few days continues the next 12-24hrs. 3. Slow movement of the system aiding in swell generation. 4. At this point, it looks like many east facing breaks could have a a decent window of local winds when the swell is forecast to hit later in the week/early this weekend. The Not So Good Things About Hurricane Gonzalo: 1. Intense, Major Hurricane producing long period swell energy directed towards the East Coast -- not ideal for the majority of spots, especially beach breaks. 2. Significant threat to Bermuda SWELL POTENTIAL FOR THE EAST COAST: The forecast track and intensity of Gonzalo are very favorable to send medium to large surf to breaks along the East Coast, especially for breaks from the Outer Banks northward. The more exposed breaks will see no shortage of swell when the surf peaks from Gonzalo and some select breaks may even see a bit too much size for the local bathymetry to handle. Please note that wave models do a poor job resolving tropical systems, especially small and intense hurricanes. Our forecast team has already noted some differences in the swell model guidance for Gonzalo that will impact swell arrival time for breaks along the East Coast. We continue to fine-tune the forecast outlook for the coming days with the wave heights for many breaks likely to be nudged upward with the updates today to reflect the strength and track of Gonzalo. To find out details in your local area including specific timing, please monitor our expert written forecasts and stay tuned for additional updates as we acquire more data.
Posted on: Wed, 15 Oct 2014 21:51:13 +0000
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