Camerons its all over narrative falls apart as 60% of the Scottish electorate demand another independence referendum - and 48% want it within just TEN YEARS Ignore the utterly desperate spin Davie Clegg of the Record is putting on the new Survation poll his paper commissioned - the results are nothing short of catastrophic for the narrative of its over, it was decisive, for heavens sake lets all move on that he and his spiritual overlord Mr Cameron (along with the rest of the London political and media establishment) have been trying to pedal for the last two months. Total who want another independence referendum : 60% Total who dont want another independence referendum : 28% Total who want another independence referendum within ten years : 48% Total who dont want another independence referendum within ten years : 40% This is massive - it means that, at least as things stand in the current febrile atmosphere, theres clear support for another referendum well before a generation has passed. And thats without even factoring in the possibility of a major change in circumstances, such as a betrayal of The Vow, or Scotland being forced to leave the EU against its will. And yet if you allow yourself to be guided by Davies headline in the Record, youd be forgiven for believing that the really significant news here is that 28% of people dont want another referendum - because we all know that 28% is a much bigger number than 60%, dont we? Davie also reads epic significance into the fact that 6% of respondents claim to have suffered a permanent falling out as a result of the referendum - even though this of course means that an utterly trifling 94% of respondents dont claim to have suffered a permanent falling out, even when theyre asked a leading question. Although the overwhelming appetite for a second referendum is very much in line with other polls since September, this poll does contradict the YouGov and Panelbase polls in suggesting that the No vote would still have a slight lead, of 53% to 47%. That finding shouldnt be entirely surprising, given that Survation became known as being almost a broken record pollster during the campaign - apart from after a major methodological change, they never showed anything other than very minor shifts in opinion, even as other pollsters were reporting a massive swing to Yes. It could be that Survation online panellists are unusually entrenched in their opinions, and therefore wont fully reflect any real world changes on the ground. Nevertheless, a 47% Yes vote is very much at the upper end of the Survation normal range, and itll be important to wait and see if theyve followed in the footsteps of Panelbase and introduced weighting by recalled referendum vote - if so, it could be that a swing to Yes is being masked by the weighting. (Panelbase showed a 51% to 49% lead for Yes, but that would have been significantly higher if they hadnt weighted by recalled referendum vote.) scotgoespop.blogspot.co.uk/2014/11/cameron-all-over-narrative-falls-apart.html
Posted on: Mon, 17 Nov 2014 00:10:26 +0000
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