Can PDP Survive APC’s Onslaught? Last weekend’s special national convention of the ruling Peoples Democratic Party, PDP, to fill 17 vacancies in the National Working Committee, NWC, of the party showed that the symptoms of distress may indeed deteriorate to a full blown malignancy before the 2015 general election. Despite the promise by Bamanga Tukur, national chairman of the party, to showcase internal democracy, complaints of lack of fairness echoed through preparations for the convention. In many states, the delegates’ list was alleged to have been tampered with. The crisis rocking the party manifested in the selection of delegates from volatile states like Anambra, Adamawa and Rivers, with the NWC taking sides as it deemed fit. If anything, the convention exposed the fact that the reconciliation efforts at various levels were not yet achieving results. For instance, four days to the convention, the court installed Rivers State working committee led by Felix Obuah and loyal to Nyesom Wike, minister of state for education, expelled some 14 top officials of the state government who should be statutory delegates from Rivers. The Obuah-led EXCO said the commissioners had failed to appear before it to give account of their stewardship to it. Nothing in the party’s constitution empowers the State Working Committee, SWC, to compel members of a state cabinet to give account of their stewardship to it. It had earlier suspended 27 members of the state House of Assembly. The Rivers SWC also rejected the candidacy of Sam Jaja, former national deputy chairman who is an Amaechi loyalist, for the same position he vacated due to the technicalities of the Independent National Electoral Commission, INEC. Instead, the party endorsed Uche Secondus, a former national organising secretary of the party known to have opposed Amaechi’s emergence as governor, to fill the position. In a statement signed by 27 members of the state assembly led by Otelemaba Daniel Amachree, the speaker, they said it was clear that Obuah either does not know the constitution of the party or is deliberately ignoring it. According to them, “The reasons, methodology and procedures that led to these pronouncements are not only unconstitutional by reasons of Article 21(4)(5)(6) of the constitution of the Peoples Democratic Party but also a continuation of the undue political rascality and abject impunity that is detrimental and injurious to the character of our party and democracy.” They expressed worry that the actions of the state EXCO are not consistent with the efforts to reunite the party. “We are worried that the undemocratic and reckless manner of the Obuah-led faction of the Peoples Democratic Party threatens not only the on-going reconciliation efforts but further deepens the factionalisation, fragmentation and survival of the Party.” In Anambra State, a familiar pattern is also playing out. Perhaps, the preparation for the November 16 gubernatorial election in the state by the PDP and the opposition political parties shows the strengths and weakness of the parties and captures the state of PDP. For instance, the party has two state executive committees, one led by Ejike Oguebego and recognised by INEC and another led by Ken Emeakayi, but recognised by the Tukur-led NWC. The two factions produced two gubernatorial candidates for the November election. The Oguebego faction produced Andy Uba, a senator and former special assistant to former president Olusegun Obasanjo on domestic affairs, while the other faction produced Tony Nwoye as candidate. The NWC endorsed Nwoye as the party’s candidate and rejected Andy. Last Wednesday, Andy obtained an injunction from a high court in Port Harcourt restraining PDP from submitting Nwoye’s name to INEC as the party’s candidate. In reaction, the NWC is said to be planning to expel Andy, his brother Chris Uba and their loyalists from the party. What does this conflict say about the state of the party? It confirms that reconciliation is not working yet. Andy is a known Obasanjo associate and Obasanjo is believed by some to have been reconciled with President Goodluck Jonathan and the party. If this were the case, why is the party hounding Andy out of the race? He was the candidate of the party in 2007 and won and was sworn in as governor of Anambra State but the court ruled that the tenure of Peter Obi had not ended. On the other hand, opposition parties in Anambra selected their candidates seamlessly. The All Progressives Alliance, APC, chose Chris Ngige, a senator and former governor, who has a heroic following in the state for his practical achievements during three years he was governor. The Labour Party gave their ticket to Ifeanyi Ubah, chairman of Capital Oil, whose company was indicted for fuel subsidy infractions, which he is contesting in court. Ubah was interested in the APGA ticket but had to decamp when the party zoned it to Anambra North. Likewise, APGA’s ticket was won by Willie Maduacbuchi Obiano, largely unknown but from APGA’s preferred zone. The party had disqualified Charles Soludo, former governor of Central Bank of Nigeria, CBN, and a professor of Economics, and five others. Some Anambra politicians alleged that PDP, which has a long working relationship with APGA, had persuaded APGA to disqualify Soludo who is now in court contesting the party’s decision. The ruling party whose flag Soludo had flown in Anambra gubernatorial election in 2010 has fallen out with the party and joined APGA whose candidate, Obi, he lost to in 2010. The ruling party’s calculation is that Soludo is Atiku Abubakar’s associate and would not work for Jonathan’s re-election bid. The former governor of the CBN has also been outspoken, criticising the economic policy of the federal government. The fear was that Soludo who is believed to have his eyes on the presidency sometime may weigh in with APC rather than PDP as some Ndigbo believe an Igbo presidency may come earlier in APC than PDP. This fear may have denied Anambra, unarguably, one of the best candidates for the job. This may also work against the ruling party as it leaves Ngige as the obvious front-runner in the race. Ubah in Labour Party will erode APGA and PDP votes as the three candidates for APGA, PDP and LP are seen as members of the same party since they are on the side of the President. They will share votes of Anambra people sympathetic to Jonathan, giving Ngige and APC an edge. Some politicians argued that Obi’s incumbency will count for nothing, as he is not contesting. If PDP loses the Anambra gubernatorial election in November as is likely, and APGA loses as some say they might, then that may clear the coast for APC’s Ngige. The ensuing development may jeopardise the chances of Jonathan in the next general election. It will cause a fatal imbalance in Jonathan’s power base – Southeast and South-south. He has already lost Edo State in the South-south to APC, compromised Rivers State, the largest voting bloc in the zone and equally lost Imo State to APC. So, losing Anambra puts his fate in four states in a sling. Those close to the President said they are working to avoid this dangerous scenario. APC and its allies appear to be aware of this delicate balance and are working to tilt it to their advantage. One of the scenarios the party is considering, according to an insider, is to pick a vice-president from the South-east where the party has little support in order to whittle down PDP’s hold on the zone. The names of those who may struggle for that ticket are still being kept secret. But the party is also more strongly considering a North-west/South-west presidential ticket. The two zones have the largest bloc votes in the country in Kano and Lagos. Though Kano is in the hand of PDP for now, the state has deep affection for Muhammadu Buhari, an APC presidential aspirant. In addition, Rabiu Kwakwanso, governor of the state, is one of the PDP governors out of favour with the Presidency. He is said to be seeking new alliances with other eight PDP governors not in the good books of the ruling party. Some politicians argue that picking presidential and vice presidential candidates would be crucial for APC. A school of thought believes that an Aminu Tambuwal/Babatunde Fashola ticket sounds ideal for the party. There are also some prominent politicians still watching what becomes of PDP, who are said to be interested in the president’s job. In the view of a top politician who is now more of a businessman, he gave an analysis he described as a big joke the APC could play. It is to pair a South-western Muslim and northern Christian. Under this construct, an Audu Ogbe/Fashola ticket is being suggested. The drawback for the scenario is that Ogbe may not have the pull of Buhari and Tambuwal, or their wide acceptance. Indeed, northern politicians say it is going to be difficult to find an acceptable and strong northern Christian to run with a southern Muslim. Though the choice of Fashola may be popular, the advantage it draws for him could be a source of worry. Looking at the popularity of the Lagos State governor, the suspicion is that such a ticket could translate to a Fashola presidency after eight years as vice-president. Now this raises concern among members of the party from the South-east and South-south who told the magazine in Abuja that it may not work because the party recognises zoning in the choice of candidates. What that means is that they will not support any attempt to push further in time the chance of someone from the South-east to rule the country. Even the choice of a South-west candidate for the post of vice-president is not cast in stone. This is because some other considerations make that almost impossible. For instance, it is believed in some circles that Bola Tinubu, former governor of Lagos, may be interested in picking the Senate presidency. But these are permutations, all of which are subject to factors within and outside each of the political parties involved in the contest. What comes out clear is that with the deepening gorge in the PDP and the fresh goodwill of the APC, the latter appears to hold the aces if elections were to be held today. But as it is said, 24 hours is a long time in politics; the pendulum can change. The detonation point in APC as many suspect would be convincing Buhari not to run. The retired general has contested three times, the last being against Jonathan, after which there was a bloody protest in some parts of the North. He has confirmed he will contest the primaries. But some people feel the North should support a younger candidate, and probably from another zone in the region. The thinking is that people from the other two zones also need to be given a sense of belonging. But the catch is that there is really no APC in the North without Buhari who is almost a cult hero among the masses, especially youths. But Buhari does have a ‘baggage’ too. A top northern politician confided in the magazine last Wednesday that “everybody is afraid of Buhari.” According to him, there is no guarantee that the general will not turn round to try even leaders of his party if any of them is implicated in corruption, should he become president. They are not alone. The northern political elite across the party divide are apprehensive about what a Buhari presidency would look like. Some said they may prefer an alliance with Jonathan seen to be lax with anti-corruption than a rigid Buhari. In addition, the entrance into party politics of the Peoples Democratic Movement, PDM, and Voice of the People, VOP, has implications for both PDP and APC. It appears to be a wind which portends danger for both parties. PDM may likely pull at least three governors. VOP is alleged to have the backing of eight PDP governors. Both parties have strong northern presence. PDM will erode PDP’s support in the North by an estimated less than 15 per cent while both PDM and VOP may reduce Buhari’s support in some parts of the North significantly. The fear in PDP circles is that if Abubakar should throw his weight behind PDM, then the presidential election may not escape a run-off as no candidate will be able to garner the required votes in at least 24 states and still score the highest number of votes. Expectedly, PDP is up against PDM to snuff it out seeing the danger it poses to the ruling party. Tony Anenih, BoT chairman who was a member of PDM as a pressure group in PDP, criticised the emergence of PDM as a political party. This, he said, is not consistent with the dream of the founding father, the late Shehu Yar’Adua. “Our PDM is not a political party. For the avoidance of doubt…it remains an integral part of PDP, whose board of trustees I currently chair.” However, Abubakar reminded Anenih that this was not the first time that PDM would seek registration as a political party. “PDM members were really never sworn to an oath to belong to only one political party,” he reaffirmed. He said neither him nor Anenih has the right to take away from fellow citizens their right to freedom of association. The party moved swiftly and convinced some members of PDM to recant but this is already too late as the party has been registered. Even the North is worried about PDM. Sources said it significantly alters the political calculations in the region which had hoped to coalesce all its forces into APC to challenge PDP effectively. A northern politician lamented last week that it is confusing the North over where to go. Some of them actually feel that it is to the detriment of the North. Some see PDM as an extension of PDP and a strategy to further fragment the North and counter APC by splitting the votes in 2015. According to Junaid Mohammed, “The birth of PDM leaves the North nowhere considering the fact that it has not declared its intention relating to the North’s quest to reclaim the presidency in 2015.” Bashir Yusuf, the national chairman of PDM, described PDP as a ‘sinking’ ship last week. Alaba Yusuf, its director of communications and strategy, however, said last week that PDM will not go into alliance with another party as it has what it takes to win the presidential election in the 2015. PDP faces real threat to its hold to power in 2015 by APC. The party appears more organised and sure of what it wants to do when in power. According to Ogbonnaya Onu, former chairman of defunct ANPP, the APC will fight corruption, which PDP appears averse to, ensure equity, improve the economy, revive education and leverage on agriculture to create jobs. “Once elected, APC will muster the political will to fight corruption. Corruption has to be fought in a way that it will reach both the high and low places. With that APC will work very hard to ensure that we have free and fair elections. Once we do that, we can now have the right type of leaders where impunity in government and political arrogance will be minimised, or actually done away with. We will be working to build a strong economy; our economy is still characterised by Nigeria importing almost everything! We don’t want to be an importing nation; we want to be a producing nation,” he explained. However, Doyin Okupe, special assistant to the president on public affairs, says APC poses no challenge to PDP and Jonathan. According to him, the registration of APC is good. We want the opposition to be organised but the APC will remain opposition. Most of them are pursuing ethnic or religious bias. It is built on mud; it will not last. The manifesto has no substance; it is an Internet download. The document was hurriedly put together. It is ill prepared and has no basic requirement for the Nigerian state. There is nothing about change in the party’s manifesto. The manifesto is archaic. It lacks vision and has no bearing for national development.” He equally dismissed the party’s pledge to rid Nigeria of corruption. “They say they want to fight corruption; that is nonsense! In which of their states are they fighting corruption? Is it in Lagos?” To compound the problem of the ruling party, there is growing mistrust between the presidency and the governors, and reconciliation is proving an uphill task. Because of this, there is no guarantee that Jonathan will win the party’s presidential primary in a fair contest as the governors control the delegates’ list from their states. That is why some top party members are apprehensive about the war between the presidency, PDP NWC and some PDP governors. Abubakar has indicated interest in the party’s presidential ticket and has refused to be forced out of the party. Some northern PDP governors like Sule Lamido of Jigawa, Babangida Aliyu of Niger, Ibrahim Shema of Katsina, Isa Yaguda of Bauchi and Rabiu Kwakwanso of Kano are also known to have presidential ambition. This number might increase to ten after the national convention. All these governors are in their second term and therefore no longer constrained as in 2011 when each was ready to cut deals with the President to safeguard their second term ticket. This fear that at least eight governors will either realise their ambition in PDP or quit the party has made the party hawks to ponder automatic ticket for Jonathan. They call it “right of first refusal.” Currently, the constitution of the party stipulates that the candidate should emerge from party primary, which has been in use since 1999. This means that for this option to sail through, the party’s constitution has to be amended. This was muted for the National Executive Committee, NEC, meeting of the party which held last week in Abuja. But as they converged on Abuja last week, it was one of the thorny issues threatening the unity of the party. Ken Emekayi, Anambra State factional PDP chairman recognised by the NWC, had placed a newspaper advertorial prior to the meeting saying that the 326 wards in Anambra State had endorsed Jonathan. However, party sources hinted the magazine that the idea of automatic ticket for Jonathan has not been discarded but has rather been put off till after full reconciliation in party; if forced down people’s throat now, they said it could backfire and trigger a fatal fission that may drown the party. But to some critics, PDP has gone beyond the point of reconciliation. The cases of Rivers and Adamawa states underscore this. With the denial of Amaechi, his cabinet members and loyal state legislators participation at the convention and same treatment to Murtala Nyako, his colleague in Tukur’s home state of Adamawa, the party stands on the edge of the precipice. Achilleus-Chud Uchegbu, a journalist and public policy analyst, thinks that PDP has gone past the stage of implosion. “It is now exploding. And knowing that in Nigeria, every truth begins as rumour, the six governors associated with VOP, deny or not, may have just caused bigger cracks on PDP’s wall. And why not? PDP’s arrogance is nauseating. How can a political party be so brash with absolute disregard for order and sensibility? I believe it does that because it believes there is no alternative to it. But with APC, PDM, ID and now VOP, PDP may eventually become a South-east/South-south party and move from national dominance to regional dominance. That will be Nigeria’s political nunc dimitis,” he predicted last week. If however Jonathan manages to win the ruling party’s presidential ticket as he favoured to in spite of all odds, the next fear among party faithful is if he can win the general election. The voting demography has changed sharply against the party in a space of two years. Today, the APC has taken over the South-west from PDP, which Onu says has denied the party a national spread. Though PDP has the sympathy of Olusegun Mimiko of Ondo State as his Labour Party is in alliance with PDP, the Yoruba are known for sticking together at presidential election. And the ill-advised strife with Obasanjo has put the party’s fate in the South-west in a sling. In the South-south, Edo State has gone with APC. Some party members blame Jonathan for tacitly supporting Adams Oshiomole to retain the gubernatorial seat of Edo. This, they argue, will come back to haunt him in 2015. Also in the South-south, the over two million votes from Rivers are in jeopardy because of the feud between the presidency and Amaechi. Though Jonathan is still favoured to win in Rivers, the division in the party will make it impossible for him to garner as many votes as he did in the last election. Any attempt to beef up the votes may lead to the cancellation of the whole votes as Amaechi’s supporters may turn in vital information to the opposition to prosecute their case in court. In the South-east, Anambra and Imo are up for grabs by APC and no longer sure bankers for Jonathan. In the North, Kano is already out of the grasp of Jonathan. So is Adamawa. He may make up to 40 per cent in Kaduna because of vice-president Namadi Sambo. Buhari will certainly win in Katsina. Kwara may go to the opposition if what is seen as the ‘harassment’ of Bukola Saraki does not stop. However, the Middle Belt, despite the possibility of Ogbe being in the power calculation, still appears secure for Jonathan. David Mark is still strongly behind him, and so is Gabriel Suswan, governor of Benue State. The ruling party is plotting to take back Nasarawa State from APC but this may prove a big fight. Plateau appears secure for Jonathan. The northern minorities and northern Christians are still believed to be in favour of Jonathan due to the fear of domination and Boko Haram. So, put together, the 2015 presidential election is seen by most people as a toss up. It is the first election in which a sitting president is not a clear favourite despite the power of incumbency.
Posted on: Sat, 21 Sep 2013 08:46:38 +0000
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