Can the pilots or aviation people test this hypothesis? From PPRuNer forum, michael0658 Probationary PPRuNer Join Date: Mar 2014 Location: Reston, VA Age: 55 Posts: 1 Proposed Search Location I worked on flight profiles for avionics system tests at Naval Air Test Center (Pax River) for a couple years back in the late 1980s. Based on the reports Ive heard, my analysis is as follows: Point S1 - Last ATC contact txtStartLatitude = 6.9208 txtStartLongitude = 103.5786 Point S2 – Contact, ADSB system (web track FR24) txtStartLatitude = 6.9208 txtStartLongitude = 103.5786 Point S3 - Last ATC contact, ADSB system (web track FR24) txtStartLatitude = 6.9208 txtStartLongitude = 103.5786 Sanga Mercur Oil Rig - known position txtStartLatitude = 8.3667 txtStartLongitude = 108.7026 Oil rig (Sanga Mercur Oil Rig) sighting report was: 265 - 275 bearing, high, minimal lateral velocity, on fire Plane had to be below 15,000 ft to not be on SGN ATC ‘ Maintaining 65 deg course from S4, gliding @ 7:1 on fire? max range = 17.3 nm could have just reached the rig if turned toward it immediately, but rig was only 15 deg off to right so might have maintained course since thats where SAR would look (assuming SAR doesnt know about rig) Oil rig report: 265 - 275 bearing, high, minimal lateral velocity, on fire. Plane had to be below 15,000 feet to not be on SGN (Ho Chi Minh City) ATC as reported. Not sure how oil rig bearing was determined. If phone more accurate, but if just memory from rig true north, then maybe +/- 25 deg instead of +/- 5 deg. Point S4 - Location at oil rig sighting (assuming due west as reported): txtStartLatitude = 8.3667 txtStartLongitude = 108.4186 Maintaining 65 deg course, with 7:1 glide ratio. Not sure on glide ratio, 7:1 is for 747 (my memory).Also thats max with optimal AOA. Some time would have been used before attempting max glide and on fire (damage) would have probably reduced it. Point S5 - Final point (end of glide – crash/ditch) is at: txtStartLatitude = 8.4885 txtStartLongitude = 108.6825 Obviously, there is some uncertainty in this position. Im not sure about the FR24 system (I believe it extrapolates minute to mintute) Points (S2 & S3). Im also not sure about the oil rig sighting bearing and distance (S4). Best guess on my S5 estimate uncertainty is +/- 15 nm. We probably have subs scanning gulf bottom by now (as well as ships) and they will probably find it soon.
Posted on: Thu, 13 Mar 2014 14:22:14 +0000