Can you spot the new stuff in, AtHome HorsePlayer II Winning the Modern Game? This is clearly demonstrated by the unchanging fact that the top 4 choices of the Morning Line (ML), the 4 lowest odds, will win around 75% of the races on a daily basis. It might get off for a day or two, but it will right itself within a week, and that is the number 2 consistency in horse racing. It has been going on for generations, and shows no signs of changing soon. It is the limit of handicapping and no amount of further education or computer age technology has put a dent in it. Every person that bets on horses should use it in their game, and most dont. Most modern handicappers dont even understand that it means something, and that is a huge mistake. Because, what it means is that they can do all of the work they would like to, in doing the handicapping over again, but it wont give them any edge over anyone that understands that the work on that part is already done. No matter what anyone does, or doesnt do, in making a decision to bet a horse, the ML top 4 will win 75% of the races. No matter how smart, or how dumb anyone is, no matter what is known or unknown.... really. That means, if the handicapper decides to bet the ML 2nd choice, and it wins.... anyway. The handicapper never really knows why that happened, for sure. It may happen 24% of the time over the week, for 3 or 4 different reasons. If the handicapper has no accurate measure of ability, he or she can never really know which provided an edge, or advantage at any given time. Without a reasonably accurate measure of ability, the handicapper can only guess at the true factors for the win. While the race track assembles the race, in a way that will keep that 24% win rate for the second choice..... for decades. By knowing, reasonably, what the ability is. You pick up a huge advantage in understanding that the past performance handicapper has been trained to see certain things in a horses record as positive. And, other things as negative. While the bulk of it actually means nothing in regard to the race today. It will be a handicapper that makes the morning line odds for the race today. Not according to his or her opinion, but, according to his or her perception of how other handicappers will see the race today. Past performance handicapping has become so uniform today, that with a little experience, you can literally read the past performance lines through the Morning Line odds. Without ever laying your eyes on them. This becomes quite powerful when you hold in your hands the one thing that all handicappers want from past performances, the ability of the horse. Finding a good bet becomes as simple as seeing the ML second choice double in odds from 3-1 to 6-1 because of what is perceived as a poor speed rating, or a dream trip. In this scenario, whether you are a beginner or Pro, the odds are clearly on your side. The percentages state, accurately.... that the handicapping public makes a losing betting decision 95% of the time. The handicapping public is not choosing to bet this horse, and the race track has made it the ML 2nd choice, because it is the best horse in the lineup (according to traditional past performance criteria) to hold that 24% win rate for another day. You have all the power in this situation, because you can make a good betting decision by simply passing, if you are not confident. But, if you look out on the track, to see a fit horse that appears willing to run today, a confident decision to bet can be quite easy to make. Without regard to the un-informed opinion of the crowd. The past performance handicapper bets the half of the field that is mostly overbet, hoping to win at a 50% rate. You can access the underbet half of the field by simply betting against the handicapper, and be well ahead if correct 25% of the time. With the Morning Line odds, you receive as much benefit from handicapping as anyone else. Without doing a minutes worth of it, you are as informed as the person who handicapped for 2 hours per race. The modern game is built for the horseplayer that understands what the game has become. The game has become, have the handicapper bet the overbet favorites, while you bet able and potential winners, at attractive odds, against the handicapper.
Posted on: Fri, 17 Jan 2014 04:07:54 +0000