+ Category 2 Typhoon Francisco strengthening. It is steadily intensifying over the warm waters of the Western Pacific about 160 miles southwest of Guam. The typhoon is expected to make its closest approach to Guam on Friday morning (local time), bringing sustained winds of 35 - 45 mph and heavy rain, as the storm heads north-northeast at 9 mph. Continued strengthening is likely, and Francisco is forecast to become a major Category 4 typhoon by Saturday as it turns northwest towards Japan. Models predict that Francisco will hit JAPAN ON WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY next week, though there is very high uncertainty in the storms track that far into the future. Franciscos formation gives the Western Pacific 27 named storms so far in 2013, which is the average number of named storms for an entire year. The last time there were more than 27 tropical storms or typhoons in the Western Pacific was in 2004, when there were 32. The Atlantic is quiet - None of the reliable computer models for forecasting tropical cyclone genesis is predicting development over the next five days. During the last few days of October and the first week of November, the Madden Julian Oscillation, a pattern of increased thunderstorm activity near the Equator that moves around the globe in 30 - 60 days, is predicted to transition into a phase that WILL bring an increase in upward-moving air over the Atlantic, boosting the odds of tropical storm formation. The most likely area for formation will be in the Western Caribbean or Gulf of Mexico. wunderground/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=2557
Posted on: Thu, 17 Oct 2013 17:09:01 +0000
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