Click for full. Incredibly important and detailed report. The last year has been a poor one for American workers’ wages. Comparing the first half of 2014 with the first half of 2013, real (inflation-adjusted) hourly wages fell for workers in nearly every decile—even for those with a bachelor’s or advanced degree. Of course, this is not a new story. Comparing the first half of 2014 with the first half of 2007 (the last period of reasonable labor market health before the Great Recession), hourly wages for the vast majority of American workers have been flat or falling. And even since 1979, the vast majority of American workers have seen their hourly wages stagnate or decline—even though decades of consistent gains in economy-wide productivity have provided ample room for wage growth. The poor performance of American workers’ wages in recent decades—particularly their failure to grow at anywhere near the pace of overall productivity—is the country’s central economic challenge. Indeed, it’s hard to think of a more important economic development in recent decades. It is at the root of the large rise in overall income inequality that has attracted so much attention in recent years. A range of other economic challenges—reducing poverty, increasing mobility, and spurring a more complete recovery from the Great Recession—also rely largely on boosting hourly wage growth for the vast majority. This paper, hand-in-hand with the overview paper (Bivens et al. 2014) for EPI’s Raising America’s Pay initiative, explains in detail why we need to raise wages in order to achieve real gains in the living standards of the vast majority of Americans. This paper begins by documenting the pronounced rise in income inequality in recent decades and then examines the implications of this rise in inequality for living standards growth for the vast majority. It then examines the link between wage growth and these wider income trends before undertaking a thorough analysis of wage trends since 1979. It concludes with an examination of the policy changes that have helped spur these wage trends by shifting bargaining power from the vast majority of workers to corporations and CEOs. The paper highlights an underappreciated subset of these policies: changes in labor market policies and business practices. Key findings include: The vast majority of Americans have experienced disappointing living standards growth in the last generation—largely due to rising inequality. Between 1979 and 2007, more than 90 percent of American households saw their incomes grow more slowly than average income growth (which was pulled up by extraordinarily fast growth at the top). By 2007, the growing wedge between economy-wide average income growth and income growth of the broad middle class (households between the 20th and 80th percentiles) reduced middle-class incomes by nearly $18,000 annually. In other words, if inequality had not risen between 1979 and 2007, middle-class incomes would have been nearly $18,000 higher in 2007. The large increase in income inequality that has blocked living standards growth for the vast majority has been driven by the failure of hourly wages for the vast majority to rise in line with overall productivity after 1979. Between 1979 and 2013, productivity grew 64.9 percent, while hourly compensation of production and nonsupervisory workers, who comprise over 80 percent of the private-sector workforce, grew just 8.0 percent. Productivity thus grew eight times faster than typical worker compensation. Between 1979 and 2013, median real hourly wages rose just 6.1 percent (or 0.2 percent annually), compared with a decline of 5.3 percent (or -0.2 percent annually) for the 10th percentile worker (i.e., the worker who earns more than only 10 percent of workers). Over the same period, the 95th percentile worker saw growth of 40.6 percent, for an annual gain of 1.0 percent. The tight labor market of the late 1990s was the only period when hourly wages increased across the wage distribution, with the strongest growth occurring at the bottom. From the first half of 2013 to the first half of 2014, real hourly wages fell for all deciles, except for a miniscule two-cent increase at the 10th percentile. Underlying this exception to the general trend at the 10th percentile is a set of state-level minimum-wage increases in the first half of 2014 in states where 40 percent of U.S. workers reside. There is no evidence of upward pressure on wages—let alone acceleration of wages—that would signal that the Federal Reserve Board should worry about incipient inflation and raise interest rates in an effort to slow down the economy. Various wage gaps (particularly the wage gap between the middle and bottom of the wage distribution, between the top and the middle, and between the very top and everyone else) reflect the relative strength of policy changes in affecting Americans’ wages, as compared with other influences (such as the interaction of technology and education). The timing of changes in the gap between wages at the middle and bottom suggests that changes in the minimum wage and the unemployment rate explain most of its evolution. Increased trade, declining unionization, and excessive unemployment are at the root of the growing gap between the top and the middle. The growth of the gap between the very top and everyone else is driven in large part by developments in corporate governance and financial regulation that have given those at the very top the bargaining power to claim economic rents. Labor market policies and business practices have large, though often underappreciated, potential impacts on wages. While this set of policies and practices includes many discrete parts, the common thread of the past generation is that practices, institutions, and standards that have boosted bargaining power for low- and moderate-wage workers have been targeted for weakening—and have been replaced by policies that put more power in the hands of corporations and their CEOs. Policies that rebuild institutions to provide bargaining power to these workers should hence be a top priority for those looking for better wage outcomes. These policies include raising the minimum wage, strengthening unions, reducing wage theft, updating overtime protections, and correcting worker misclassification. How rising inequality helps explain the disappointing living standards growth for the vast majority In recent decades, the vast majority of Americans have experienced disappointing growth in their living standards—despite economic growth that could have easily generated faster gains in their living standards had it been broadly shared. As with most economic analysis, assessing the growth of living standards for the vast majority requires specifying benchmarks against which to measure actual performance. We define two reasonable benchmarks. The first is income growth for the broad middle class relative to overall average growth—or the growth that the economy could have delivered to all households had they all shared proportionately in these gains. The second benchmark is income growth relative to that of earlier historical epochs. What this benchmark shows is that the rise of inequality explains the vast majority of the deceleration in middle-class income growth relative to earlier periods, particularly the first three-plus decades following World War II, when prosperity was broadly shared. Figure A helps us assess performance relative to the first benchmark by charting the cumulative percentage increase in average incomes for all households (i.e., the overall average); the bottom and middle income fifths; households between the 81st and 90th percentiles, 91st and 95th percentiles, and 96th and 99th percentiles; and the top 1 percent. Breaking the top 1 percent down even further would show nearly as dramatic an increase in inequality just within this top group, but it would also stretch the vertical axis so much as to make it nearly unreadable, so for now we will just examine the top 1 percent. FIGURE AInteractive Change in average real annual household income, by income group, 1979–2010 Year All households Bottom fifth Middle fifth 81–90% 91–95% 96–99% Top 1 percent 1979/01/01 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1980/01/01 -3.3% -3.2% -3.6% -2.6% -2.2% -3.8% -4.7% 1981/01/01 -3.5% -5.5% -4.8% -3.4% -2.6% -5.4% -5.3% 1982/01/01 -3.8% -7.1% -7.0% -3.9% -3.9% -5.4% -0.8% 1983/01/01 -3.1% -9.9% -8.6% -2.8% -1.3% -2.4% 8.9% 1984/01/01 2.1% -6.2% -3.5% 3.2% 6.2% 5.5% 20.2% 1985/01/01 3.8% -5.5% -3.2% 2.6% 5.7% 6.8% 28.5% 1986/01/01 11.3% -4.6% -0.6% 8.1% 11.3% 17.2% 68.5% 1987/01/01 7.7% -4.9% -1.5% 9.0% 13.2% 15.7% 36.0% 1988/01/01 12.5% -2.4% 0.2% 10.6% 15.1% 20.2% 70.7% 1989/01/01 13.3% 1.0% 1.4% 12.3% 17.5% 22.3% 59.2% 1990/01/01 12.4% 5.0% 1.5% 10.2% 14.3% 18.4% 52.9% 1991/01/01 9.7% 6.4% -0.5% 8.3% 13.1% 15.7% 36.7% 1992/01/01 12.7% 7.6% 0.2% 9.9% 15.3% 20.3% 55.1% 1993/01/01 13.3% 9.3% 1.1% 11.3% 16.4% 20.8% 49.1% 1994/01/01 14.7% 10.4% 1.4% 13.4% 18.3% 23.5% 53.5% 1995/01/01 19.1% 14.6% 4.6% 16.4% 21.4% 29.7% 70.7% 1996/01/01 23.1% 13.4% 5.8% 18.1% 25.4% 34.4% 87.7% 1997/01/01 27.8% 15.2% 7.3% 20.5% 29.5% 42.9% 115.5% 1998/01/01 33.7% 19.0% 9.6% 24.8% 34.0% 50.1% 143.1% 1999/01/01 39.5% 21.0% 12.4% 28.8% 39.0% 56.2% 163.5% 2000/01/01 41.6% 16.7% 11.6% 30.5% 42.2% 59.5% 187.0% 2001/01/01 34.1% 19.5% 13.0% 28.2% 37.2% 49.4% 126.9% 2002/01/01 28.8% 16.5% 10.6% 26.3% 34.4% 43.4% 100.6% 2003/01/01 30.6% 15.7% 10.5% 27.4% 36.7% 47.7% 112.8% 2004/01/01 38.4% 18.6% 14.4% 32.3% 41.6% 56.6% 153.5% 2005/01/01 45.1% 21.8% 15.7% 34.4% 46.5% 68.2% 205.6% 2006/01/01 49.5% 25.4% 16.2% 37.2% 49.5% 72.6% 229.2% 2007/01/01 53.4% 29.2% 19.7% 39.1% 53.0% 78.1% 244.7% 2008/01/01 41.4% 26.1% 15.3% 35.3% 46.6% 63.0% 178.7% 2009/01/01 34.0% 26.5% 13.7% 32.9% 43.4% 53.5% 118.9% 2010/01/01 37.8% 27.6% 14.1% 33.5% 45.9% 58.9% 153.9% Cumulative percent change since 1979 244.7% 53.4% Top 1 percent 96–99% 91–95% All households 81–90% Bottom fifth Middle fifth 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 -50 0 50 100 150 200 250 300% Note: Data are for comprehensive income. Shaded areas denote recessions. To be consistent with other income and earnings measures in this paper, we use the CPI-U-RS to deflate this series, instead of the personal consumption expenditures deflator used by CBO. Source: EPI analysis of Congressional Budget Office (2013) Reproduced from: Figure G in Bivens et al. (2014) Show table Copy data to Excel Embed this chart One striking aspect of the figure is the large decline in top 1 percent incomes following the onset of the Great Recession after 2007. However, a similarly large fall in top 1 percent incomes resulted from stock market declines following the 2001 recession as well, and as the figure shows, these incomes recovered quite quickly. For a clearer look at the trend growth in incomes at various percentiles, we will hence follow the best practice of focusing on business cycle peaks. Between the business cycle peaks of 1979 and 2007, the results are striking. Overall, real average annual household incomes grew by 53.4 percent. Incomes of the bottom fifth of households grew by 29.2 percent, and incomes of the middle fifth grew just 19.7 percent. Even more strikingly, income growth of households between the 81st and 90th percentiles (39.1 percent) did not come particularly close to matching overall average income growth rates, and even average income growth of households between the 91st and 95th percentiles (53.0 percent) fell short of average growth. In short, between 1979 and 2007, more than 90 percent of American households saw their incomes grow more slowly than average income growth (which was pulled up by extraordinarily fast growth at the top). In contrast, income growth of households between the 96th and 99th percentiles (78.1 percent) significantly exceeded average growth. And income growth of the top 1 percent (244.7 percent) was nearly five times as rapid as overall average growth. The data in Figure A measure comprehensive income—including cash, market-based incomes (wages and salaries, dividends, rent, capital gains, and business income); non-cash income, such as employer contributions to health insurance premiums; and cash and non-cash government transfers like Social Security, food stamps, Medicare, and Medicaid. A substantial revisionist literature in recent years has tried to make the case that these comprehensive income measures rebut the notion that the U.S. economy is performing poorly for the vast majority of American households. However, it is easy to see that the rise in American inequality is extreme even when using these comprehensive income measures. For example, the top 1 percent of households accounts for a higher share (34.6 percent) of the $38,178 increase in average comprehensive income that occurred between 1979 and 2007 than the bottom 80 percent of households (32.3 percent). It is clear that most of the overall income gains from 1979 to 2007 bypassed the vast majority of American households. As such, their living standards are lower than they would be had these gains been shared more broadly. In other words, there is a growing wedge between economy-wide average income growth and income growth of the broad middle class—a wedge we sometimes refer to as the “inequality tax”—that has effectively reduced middle-class incomes. Figure B displays this inequality tax by showing the actual income growth of the broad middle class (defined as households between the 20th and 80th percentiles of the income distribution) between 1979 and 2007, and growth they could have had if their incomes had simply kept pace with overall average growth (i.e., had inequality not widened over this time). The wedge between these incomes is essentially a tax on middle-class incomes imposed by rising inequality. By 2007, this implicit tax was enormous; middle-class incomes would have been roughly 23.4 percent ($17,890) higher in that year had inequality not widened. This comparison makes clear why it is important to benchmark even non-zero changes in incomes against reasonable counterfactuals (in this case, the growth of the average), as opposed to simply comparing them to an alternative scenario of zero growth. The U.S. economy has generated enormous amounts of income in recent decades, even in the post-1979 period when overall growth slowed. It can certainly provide far faster growth for the broad middle class than it has over the past generation, and its failure to do so is an economic catastrophe. FIGURE BInteractive Household income of the broad middle class, actual and projected assuming it grew at overall average rate, 1979–2010 Actual Projected 1979 $61,500.85 $61,500.85 1980 $59,410.80 $59,496.24 1981 $59,165.77 $59,378.47 1982 $58,045.20 $59,190.13 1983 $57,113.42 $59,607.40 1984 $60,436.44 $62,791.97 1985 $60,455.80 $63,846.45 1986 $62,311.33 $68,438.53 1987 $61,350.34 $66,237.78 1988 $62,294.69 $69,160.78 1989 $63,135.03 $69,649.78 1990 $63,346.74 $69,117.33 1991 $62,385.30 $67,438.64 1992 $62,719.35 $69,281.92 1993 $63,536.81 $69,690.99 1994 $63,950.92 $70,539.98 1995 $65,918.30 $73,252.34 1996 $66,667.39 $75,701.52 1997 $67,763.61 $78,584.99 1998 $69,986.27 $82,248.14 1999 $71,838.84 $85,781.89 2000 $71,671.22 $87,064.80 2001 $71,700.18 $82,452.42 2002 $70,110.64 $79,223.47 2003 $70,173.65 $80,341.96 2004 $72,564.81 $85,091.74 2005 $73,697.74 $89,243.02 2006 $74,371.55 $91,962.80 2007 $76,450.81 $94,341.19 2008 $73,564.59 $86,936.24 2009 $72,740.58 $82,433.72 2010 $72,843.79 $84,733.87 $94,341 $76,451 Projected Actual 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 50,000 60,000 70,000 80,000 90,000 $100,000 Note: Data show average income of 20th–80th percentile. Source: EPI analysis of Congressional Budget Office (2013) Reproduced from: Figure I in Bivens et al. (2014) Show table Copy data to Excel Embed this chart Next, we turn to the second benchmark against which we assess living standards growth: income growth in previous periods. Incomes have not always grown so unequally as to create a wedge between the typical (i.e., median) and the average household. As shown in Figure C, there was an earlier period of far more equal growth. In the three decades following World War II, income growth was relatively strong and uniform across the income distribution. From 1979 to 2007, however, the slower income growth that prevailed was concentrated in the top 20 percent of the income distribution, with most of it going to the top 5 percent. The stair-step pattern shows that each consecutive income group saw an increasing amount of growth. Since the last business cycle peak in 2007, the Great Recession has devastated incomes for the vast majority. Again, here we see a stair-step pattern—this time nearly all below zero. The largest income losses occurred at the bottom, with only the very top of the income distribution experiencing any gains between 2007 and 2012. FIGURE CInteractive Average annual family income growth, by income group, 1947–2012 1947–1979 1979–2007 2007–2012 Bottom fifth 2.5% 0.0% -2.7% Second fifth 2.2% 0.4% -2.1% Middle fifth 2.4% 0.6% -1.7% Fourth fifth 2.4% 0.9% -1.3% Top fifth 2.2% 1.5% -0.4% Top 5 percent 1.9% 2.0% 0.1% Average annualized rate of growth 2.5% 2.2% 2.4% 2.4% 2.2% 1.9% 0.0% 0.4% 0.6% 0.9% 1.5% 2.0% -2.7% -2.1% -1.7% -1.3% -0.4% 0.1% 1947–1979 1979–2007 2007–2012 Bottom fifth Second fifth Middle fifth Fourth fifth Top fifth Top 5percent -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3% Note: Data are for money income. Source: EPI analysis of Current Population Survey Annual Social and Economic Supplement Historical Income Tables (Table F-3) Updated from: Figure 2C in The State of Working America, 12th Edition (Mishel et al. 2012), an Economic Policy Institute book published by Cornell University Press in 2012 Show table Copy data to Excel Embed this chart In short, the rise in inequality is by far the most important determinant of the slowdown in living standards growth over the past generation, and it has been enormously costly for the broad middle class. The rapid increase in inequality that began (roughly) in 1979 has not just kept incomes for the vast majority from growing as fast as the overall average, it also is the dominant explanation for why income growth for the vast majority since 1979 lags so far behind income growth in the preceding generation. Broad wage stagnation underlies sluggish living standards growth for the vast majority The rise in income inequality that has blocked living standards growth for the vast majority since 1979 has been driven by a pronounced reduction in the collective and individual bargaining power of ordinary American workers, for whom wages are the primary source of income. As a result of their eroded bargaining power, their wages have stagnated over the past generation. If wages of the bottom 99 percent had kept pace with productivity growth over the past generation, as was the case in the preceding generation, then most of the increase in income inequality would not have been possible. This is the direct effect of the fact that rising wage inequality—stagnant wages for the vast majority, combined with substantial wage gains for those at the very top—has left most Americans with an ever-shrinking portion of the overall wage bill. It is also the case that if labor incomes—i.e., wages—had not grown so unequally, then the share of total output available to be claimed by capital owners, again concentrated at the top of the income distribution, would have been significantly smaller. It is the combination of these two factors—driven by wages for the vast majority lagging productivity—that has led to the erosion of most Americans’ living standards. The Raising America’s Pay overview paper (Bivens et al. 2014) provides further evidence that slowly growing cash, market-based income—in essence, stagnant wages—for the bottom 90 percent is at the root of rising income inequality (see, in particular, Figure J of that report). The upshot is clear: The broad wage stagnation described in this section is the single most important reason why living standards growth for the vast majority has decelerated so markedly over the last generation.1 Core wage trends The large increase in income inequality that has blocked living standards growth for the vast majority has been driven by the failure of hourly wages for the vast majority to rise in line with overall productivity after 1979. The resulting wage stagnation and inequality have afflicted men and women, and people at all levels of education; even the college educated are just treading water. The latest data from 2014 further confirm these findings. It is also clear from the evidence that broad-based wage growth is the key to reversing the trends in incomes and returning to a time when all can enjoy stable economic growth. Since 1979, hourly pay for the vast majority of American workers has diverged from economy-wide productivity, as shown in Figure D, and this divergence is at the root of numerous American economic challenges. Between 1979 and 2013, productivity grew 64.9 percent, while hourly compensation of production and nonsupervisory workers, who comprise over 80 percent of the private-sector workforce, grew just 8.0 percent. Productivity thus grew eight times faster than typical worker compensation. FIGURE DInteractive Disconnect between productivity and typical worker’s compensation,* 1948–2013 Year Hourly compensation Productivity 1948 0.0% 0.0% 1949 6.3% 1.5% 1950 10.5% 9.3% 1951 11.8% 12.4% 1952 15.0% 15.6% 1953 20.8% 19.5% 1954 23.5% 21.6% 1955 28.7% 26.5% 1956 33.9% 26.7% 1957 37.1% 30.1% 1958 38.2% 32.8% 1959 42.6% 37.6% 1960 45.5% 40.0% 1961 48.0% 44.4% 1962 52.5% 49.8% 1963 55.0% 55.0% 1964 58.5% 60.0% 1965 62.5% 64.9% 1966 64.9% 70.0% 1967 66.9% 72.1% 1968 70.7% 77.2% 1969 74.7% 77.9% 1970 76.6% 80.4% 1971 82.0% 87.1% 1972 91.3% 92.0% 1973 91.3% 96.7% 1974 87.0% 93.6% 1975 86.9% 97.9% 1976 89.7% 103.4% 1977 93.2% 105.8% 1978 96.0% 107.8% 1979 93.4% 108.1% 1980 88.6% 106.5% 1981 87.6% 111.0% 1982 87.8% 107.9% 1983 88.3% 114.1% 1984 87.0% 119.7% 1985 86.4% 123.4% 1986 87.3% 128.0% 1987 84.6% 129.1% 1988 83.9% 131.8% 1989 83.7% 133.7% 1990 82.2% 137.0% 1991 81.9% 138.9% 1992 83.1% 147.6% 1993 83.4% 148.4% 1994 83.8% 150.8% 1995 82.7% 150.9% 1996 82.8% 157.0% 1997 84.8% 160.6% 1998 89.2% 165.9% 1999 92.0% 172.8% 2000 93.0% 179.2% 2001 95.7% 183.5% 2002 99.6% 191.4% 2003 101.8% 200.9% 2004 101.1% 209.1% 2005 100.2% 214.5% 2006 100.3% 216.5% 2007 101.8% 218.8% 2008 101.9% 219.4% 2009 109.9% 226.0% 2010 111.8% 235.4% 2011 109.3% 236.7% 2012 107.5% 240.9% 2013 108.9% 243.1% Cumulative percent change since 1948 243.1% 108.9% Productivity Hourly compensation 1960 1980 2000 -50 0 50 100 150 200 250 300% Note: From 1948 to 1979, productivity rose 108.1 percent, and hourly compensation increased 93.4 percent. From 1979 to 2013, productivity rose 64.9 percent, and hourly compensation rose 8.0 percent. * Data are for compensation of production/nonsupervisory workers in the private sector (who comprise over 80 percent of the private-sector workforce) and net productivity (growth of output of goods and services less depreciation per hour worked) of the total economy. Hourly compensation is derived from inflating the average wages of production/nonsupervisory workers from the BLS Current Employment Statistics (CES) by a compensation-to-wage ratio. The compensation-to-wage ratio is calculated by dividing the average total compensation (wages and salaries plus benefits) by the average wage and salary accruals of all full- and part-time employees from the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) National Income and Product Accounts (NIPA) interactive tables. The 2013 compensation-to-wage ratio used in the calculation of hourly compensation was estimated using the growth rate of the compensation-to-wage ratio from 2012 to 2013 from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Employer Costs for Employee Compensation (ECEC). Source: EPI analysis of data from Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Labor Productivity and Costs program, BLS Current Employment Statistics public data series, BLS Employer Costs for Employee Compensation, and Bureau of Economic Analysis National Income and Product Accounts (Tables 2.3.4, 6.2, 6.3, 6.9, 6.10, and 6.11) Updated from: Figure A in Bivens et al. (2014) Show table Copy data to Excel Embed this chart A natural question that arises from this figure is just where did the “excess” productivity go? A significant portion of it went to higher corporate profits and increased income accruing to capital and business owners (see Table 3 in the Raising America’s Pay overview paper). But much of it went to those at the very top of the wage distribution, as shown in Figure E. The top 1 percent of earners saw cumulative gains in annual wages of 153.6 percent between 1979 and 2012—far in excess of economy-wide productivity growth and over four times faster than average wage growth. Comparing the growth of the top 1 percent to other privileged workers (those between the 90th and 99th percentiles) is also instructive. For example, wage earners in the 90th through 95th percentiles (earning more than 90 percent of other wage earners but less than the highest 5 percent of earners) saw wage growth of 39.2 percent—more than double that of the bottom 90 percent of earners, but only one-fourth as much as the wage gains of the top 1 percent. FIGURE EInteractive Cumulative change in real annual wages, by wage group, 1979–2012 Top 1% 95–99% 90–95% Bottom 90% Average 1979 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1980 3.4% -0.2% -1.3% -2.2% -1.4% 1981 3.1% -0.1% -1.1% -2.6% -1.7% 1982 9.5% 2.2% -0.9% -3.9% -1.9% 1983 13.6% 3.6% 0.7% -3.7% -1.1% 1984 20.7% 6.0% 2.5% -1.8% 1.2% 1985 23.0% 8.1% 4.0% -1.0% 2.4% 1986 32.6% 12.5% 6.4% 1.1% 5.3% 1987 53.5% 15.0% 7.4% 2.1% 8.0% 1988 68.7% 18.4% 8.2% 2.2% 9.7% 1989 63.3% 18.2% 8.1% 1.8% 9.0% 1990 64.8% 16.5% 7.1% 1.1% 8.3% 1991 53.6% 15.5% 6.9% 0.0% 6.5% 1992 74.3% 19.2% 9.0% 1.5% 9.8% 1993 67.9% 20.6% 9.2% 0.9% 9.1% 1994 63.4% 21.0% 11.2% 2.0% 9.8% 1995 70.2% 24.1% 12.2% 2.8% 11.3% 1996 79.0% 27.0% 13.6% 4.1% 13.3% 1997 100.6% 32.3% 16.9% 7.0% 18.0% 1998 113.1% 38.2% 21.3% 11.0% 22.9% 1999 129.7% 42.9% 25.0% 13.2% 26.6% 2000 144.8% 48.0% 26.8% 15.3% 29.9% 2001 130.4% 46.4% 29.0% 15.7% 29.3% 2002 109.3% 43.2% 29.0% 15.6% 27.2% 2003 113.9% 44.9% 30.3% 15.7% 28.0% 2004 127.2% 47.1% 30.8% 15.6% 29.2% 2005 135.4% 48.7% 30.8% 15.0% 29.6% 2006 143.4% 52.1% 32.5% 15.7% 31.2% 2007 156.2% 55.4% 34.1% 16.7% 33.4% 2008 137.5% 53.8% 34.2% 16.0% 31.4% 2009 116.2% 53.6% 35.4% 16.0% 29.9% 2010 130.9% 55.7% 35.7% 15.2% 30.8% 2011 134.0% 56.9% 36.2% 14.5% 30.7% 2012 153.6% 61.6% 39.2% 17.1% 34.8% Cumulative wage growth since 1979 153.6% 61.6% 39.2% 34.8% 17.1% Top 1% 95–99% 90–95% Average Bottom 90% 1980 1990 2000 2010 -50 0 50 100 150 200% Source: EPI analysis of Kopczuk, Saez, and Song (2010) and Social Security Administration wage statistics Reproduced from: Figure F in Bivens et al. (2014) Show table Copy data to Excel Embed this chart While Figure E uses data on annual earnings, Figure F displays the cumulative change in real hourly wages at particular points in the wage distribution.2 It is important to examine hourly wages because one way workers can increase their annual wages is simply by working more hours. As such, it is valuable to know whether any annual wage gains stem from rising hours or from rising pay per hour worked. FIGURE FInteractive Cumulative change in real hourly wages of all workers, by wage percentile,* 1979–2013 YEAR 95th percentile 70th percentile 50th percentile 30th percentile 10th percentile 1979/01/01 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 1980/01/01 -1.90% -2.50% -1.00% -2.10% -5.50% 1981/01/01 -1.70% -3.00% -3.60% -2.70% -4.00% 1982/01/01 0.20% -1.90% -2.20% -4.00% -7.70% 1983/01/01 3.40% -0.90% -2.70% -5.90% -10.50% 1984/01/01 4.20% -1.70% -2.20% -6.60% -12.70% 1985/01/01 6.00% -2.30% -1.30% -6.00% -14.10% 1986/01/01 7.60% 0.70% 0.50% -3.30% -14.30% 1987/01/01 7.40% 0.50% 0.60% -2.90% -14.50% 1988/01/01 10.10% 0.90% 0.00% -3.50% -14.50% 1989/01/01 7.50% 0.80% -0.60% -4.70% -14.60% 1990/01/01 9.60% -0.30% -0.60% -3.70% -13.10% 1991/01/01 10.30% -0.70% 0.00% -3.30% -11.50% 1992/01/01 8.50% -0.50% 0.80% -4.00% -11.70% 1993/01/01 7.60% 0.60% 0.10% -4.00% -12.00% 1994/01/01 13.10% 0.40% -1.60% -5.60% -12.90% 1995/01/01 13.20% 0.50% -2.40% -5.20% -13.10% 1996/01/01 13.80% 0.80% -2.80% -4.20% -13.50% 1997/01/01 15.20% 1.10% -0.50% -3.00% -10.60% 1998/01/01 18.00% 4.40% 2.30% -0.50% -5.70% 1999/01/01 21.50% 6.50% 5.40% 3.00% -4.30% 2000/01/01 25.20% 7.60% 5.10% 3.70% -3.40% 2001/01/01 27.70% 9.20% 7.40% 6.90% -0.40% 2002/01/01 32.00% 10.80% 8.30% 7.80% 0.70% 2003/01/01 30.30% 11.20% 9.60% 7.00% 0.30% 2004/01/01 31.60% 9.80% 9.60% 5.10% -1.10% 2005/01/01 32.50% 9.80% 8.30% 2.90% -2.80% 2006/01/01 33.20% 8.40% 8.70% 4.30% -2.20% 2007/01/01 36.10% 10.80% 7.80% 4.70% -1.00% 2008/01/01 37.60% 10.90% 8.30% 5.40% -1.90% 2009/01/01 39.00% 14.10% 10.10% 6.70% -1.10% 2010/01/01 38.70% 12.90% 8.60% 4.90% -1.90% 2011/01/01 37.10% 10.30% 5.70% 2.70% -4.30% 2012/01/01 39.00% 10.50% 5.00% 1.40% -5.90% 2013/01/01 40.60% 10.70% 6.10% 0.90% -5.30% 40.6% 10.7% 6.1% 0.9% -5.3% 95th percentile 70th percentile 50th percentile 30th percentile 10th percentile 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 -20 0 20 40 60% * The xth-percentile wage is the wage at which x% of wage earners earn less and (100-x)% earn more. Note: Shaded areas denote recessions. Source: EPI analysis of Current Population Survey Outgoing Rotation Group microdata Show table Copy data to Excel Embed this chart What this figure shows is that hourly wages of the vast majority of American workers have performed even worse than suggested by Figure E. For all but the highest earners, hourly wages have either stagnated or declined since 1979 (with the exception of a period of strong across-the-board wage growth in the late 1990s). Median hourly wages rose just 6.1 percent (or 0.2 percent annually) between 1979 and 2013, compared with a decline of 5.3 percent (or -0.2 percent annually) for the 10th percentile worker (i.e., the worker who earns more than only 10 percent of workers). Over the same period, the 95th percentile worker saw growth of 40.6 percent, for an annual gain of 1.0 percent. Figure G decomposes the annualized growth rates of real hourly wages over particular periods of interest for select wage percentiles. The 1979–1995 period has the familiar stair-step pattern found in the income data; at each successive wage percentile shown, growth rates increase. Between 2000 and 2013, hourly wages of the vast majority of workers either fell (bottom 30 percent) or were essentially flat (next 40 percent), and only the 95th percentile saw wage growth closely approaching 1 percent annually. The late 1990s was the only period between 1979 and 2013 when wage growth was robust and broadly shared; in fact, wage growth was actually strongest for those at the bottom. FIGURE GInteractive Annualized growth rates of real hourly wages, by wage percentile, 1979–2013 Year 10th percentile 30th percentile 50th percentile 70th percentile 95th percentile 1979–1995 -0.9% -0.3% -0.2% 0.0% 0.8% 1995–2000 2.1% 1.8% 1.5% 1.4% 2.0% 2000–2013 -0.1% -0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 0.9% -0.9% 2.1% -0.1% -0.3% 1.8% -0.2% -0.2% 1.5% 0.1% 0.0% 1.4% 0.2% 0.8% 2.0% 0.9% 10thpercentile 30thpercentile 50thpercentile 70thpercentile 95thpercentile 1979-1995 1995-2000 2000-2013 -2 -1 0 1 2 3% * The xth-percentile wage is the wage at which x% of wage earners earn less and (100-x)% earn more. Source: EPI analysis of Current Population Survey Outgoing Rotation Group microdata Show table Copy data to Excel Embed this chart Wage trends by gender This overall picture, however, masks different outcomes for men and women. Figure H shows the cumulative percent change over 1979–2013 in real hourly wages of men at key wage levels. The long-term pattern is that wages of median male workers and of low-wage men have been and remain below their 1979 levels, despite strong wage growth in the late 1990s. Even men at the 70th percentile experienced slow growth of only 2.3 percent cumulatively over nearly three-and-a-half decades. In contrast, high-wage men at the 95th percentile did substantially better, with their wages growing 40.1 percent. Figure H thus shows that low- and middle-wage men have fared comparably poorly, and that the wage gap between those at the top and those in the middle and bottom has expanded continuously over the last three-and-a-half decades. FIGURE HInteractive Cumulative change in real hourly wages of men, by wage percentile,* 1979–2013 10th percentile 30th percentile 50th percentile 70th percentile 95th percentile 1979/01/01 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1980/01/01 -2.7% -3.8% -1.5% -0.8% -2.8% 1981/01/01 -5.6% -4.7% -3.6% -2.1% -0.8% 1982/01/01 -9.4% -7.5% -4.3% -1.1% 1.1% 1983/01/01 -12.6% -10.3% -5.6% -2.2% 4.3% 1984/01/01 -13.0% -11.1% -6.0% -1.2% 5.6% 1985/01/01 -13.4% -10.4% -5.1% -0.4% 10.7% 1986/01/01 -12.8% -7.7% -2.4% 0.6% 7.7% 1987/01/01 -12.7% -8.1% -3.0% -0.4% 11.2% 1988/01/01 -11.6% -9.0% -4.8% -0.4% 11.3% 1989/01/01 -11.1% -10.7% -7.6% -1.2% 6.1% 1990/01/01 -12.5% -11.3% -9.0% -1.6% 6.5% 1991/01/01 -14.0% -12.3% -9.2% -1.7% 7.6% 1992/01/01 -15.3% -13.8% -10.0% -3.0% 8.4% 1993/01/01 -15.9% -14.4% -10.7% -3.6% 10.4% 1994/01/01 -16.4% -16.3% -12.3% -4.0% 10.6% 1995/01/01 -14.3% -15.9% -11.0% -4.0% 10.3% 1996/01/01 -13.6% -15.6% -11.5% -4.2% 10.6% 1997/01/01 -11.9% -13.8% -11.0% -2.4% 13.3% 1998/01/01 -9.3% -11.2% -7.8% 0.0% 15.4% 1999/01/01 -5.3% -7.5% -5.4% 2.0% 18.8% 2000/01/01 -4.5% -8.6% -4.8% 2.3% 22.1% 2001/01/01 -3.4% -8.4% -3.5% 3.9% 25.5% 2002/01/01 -3.5% -7.5% -3.1% 3.7% 28.0% 2003/01/01 -2.8% -7.2% -3.8% 5.4% 28.7% 2004/01/01 -3.6% -8.3% -5.0% 4.2% 31.5% 2005/01/01 -4.4% -9.9% -5.8% 3.0% 29.4% 2006/01/01 -5.4% -8.1% -6.0% 3.5% 29.7% 2007/01/01 -5.5% -8.6% -4.4% 5.2% 31.4% 2008/01/01 -5.2% -9.2% -5.0% 4.8% 33.4% 2009/01/01 -5.5% -7.9% -2.3% 7.4% 40.3% 2010/01/01 -6.7% -10.1% -4.9% 5.5% 38.8% 2011/01/01 -9.3% -13.3% -7.4% 2.6% 34.6% 2012/01/01 -9.5% -13.3% -7.6% 2.1% 41.9% 2013/01/01 -9.4% -13.9% -8.6% 2.3% 40.1% 40.1% 2.3% -8.6% -9.4% -13.9% 95th percentile 70th percentile 50th percentile 10th percentile 30th percentile 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 -20 0 20 40 60% * The xth-percentile wage is the wage at which x% of wage earners earn less and (100-x)% earn more. Note: Shaded areas denote recessions. Source: EPI analysis of Current Population Survey Outgoing Rotation Group microdata Updated from: Figure 4C in The State of Working America, 12th Edition (Mishel et al. 2012), an Economic Policy Institute book published by Cornell University Press in 2012 Show table Copy data to Excel Embed this chart Figure I shows the cumulative percent change over 1979–2013 in real hourly wages of women at key wage levels. Wage growth for women has been stronger than for men at every wage level. Low-wage women at the 10th percentile were the only group to not experience any wage growth between 1979 and 2013, whereas more than half of men saw wage declines. Wages of the median woman grew by 21.7 percent from 1979 to 2013, with the gap between low- and middle-wage women’s wages growing mostly over 1979–1995. Once the acceleration of the late 1990s ended, women from the 70th percentile on down experienced stagnant or falling wages. Higher-wage women fared far better than middle-wage and lower-wage women for the entire period and had considerable improvement—69.6 percent—at the 95th percentile. FIGURE IInteractive Cumulative change in real hourly wages of women, by wage percentile,* 1979–2013 95th percentile 70th percentile 50th percentile 30th percentile 10th percentile 1979/01/01 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 1980/01/01 0.20% -0.10% -0.30% -1.10% -6.60% 1981/01/01 0.50% -0.90% -1.10% -2.30% -3.40% 1982/01/01 4.20% 3.60% -1.00% -2.40% -7.10% 1983/01/01 4.30% 4.60% 0.30% -2.80% -9.90% 1984/01/01 7.70% 5.30% 1.10% -2.10% -12.50% 1985/01/01 11.20% 7.40% 1.60% -0.70% -14.30% 1986/01/01 13.50% 10.50% 4.20% 0.70% -14.90% 1987/01/01 16.40% 12.90% 7.00% 0.40% -15.90% 1988/01/01 20.40% 14.90% 7.90% 0.00% -16.80% 1989/01/01 21.40% 14.60% 7.80% 1.00% -16.60% 1990/01/01 23.10% 13.00% 8.10% 2.00% -15.70% 1991/01/01 24.70% 15.70% 8.60% 2.30% -13.90% 1992/01/01 27.40% 16.00% 9.40% 2.20% -12.30% 1993/01/01 30.70% 20.10% 10.70% 3.50% -11.80% 1994/01/01 34.30% 18.70% 9.70% 2.70% -12.50% 1995/01/01 34.40% 17.90% 9.00% 3.30% -12.80% 1996/01/01 35.40% 18.90% 9.50% 3.50% -13.10% 1997/01/01 35.50% 20.30% 12.30% 4.40% -11.60% 1998/01/01 40.90% 24.70% 15.00% 8.80% -6.40% 1999/01/01 45.50% 27.10% 16.10% 11.20% -4.30% 2000/01/01 46.80% 28.10% 18.40% 12.10% -3.80% 2001/01/01 51.10% 30.20% 21.00% 15.70% -2.70% 2002/01/01 55.10% 33.00% 24.00% 17.20% -0.20% 2003/01/01 57.30% 36.00% 24.30% 17.70% 0.20% 2004/01/01 57.40% 35.10% 24.10% 17.20% -0.60% 2005/01/01 59.00% 35.10% 23.20% 17.40% -2.60% 2006/01/01 60.80% 34.80% 23.30% 15.70% -3.10% 2007/01/01 61.40% 35.80% 24.40% 14.40% -1.90% 2008/01/01 63.50% 36.20% 25.20% 14.20% -1.30% 2009/01/01 66.50% 38.30% 27.40% 16.00% 0.60% 2010/01/01 69.60% 37.20% 26.50% 14.70% 0.10% 2011/01/01 66.80% 36.00% 24.20% 12.90% -2.30% 2012/01/01 68.20% 35.20% 22.00% 10.40% -4.20% 2013/01/01 69.60% 36.10% 21.70% 11.50% -4.00% 69.6% 36.1% 21.7% 11.5% -4.0% 95th percentile 70th percentile 50th percentile 30th percentile 10th percentile 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 -25 0 25 50 75% * The xth-percentile wage is the wage at which x% of wage earners earn less and (100-x)% earn more. Note: Shaded areas denote recessions. Source: EPI analysis of Current Population Survey Outgoing Rotation Group microdata Updated from: Figure 4D in The State of Working America, 12th Edition (Mishel et al. 2012), an Economic Policy Institute book published by Cornell University Press in 2012 Show table Copy data to Excel Embed this chart The most recent wage trends The latest data from the first half of 2014 reveal evidence of the same abysmal trends experienced through the Great Recession and much of the last three decades. Table 1 provides data from the first half of the last several years, since the last business cycle peak in 2007. This table includes the 2007 peak, the official end of the recession in 2009, and the two most recent years of data for comparison. Wages for the bottom 70 percent are still lower than in 2007, and wages for all groups are lower than they were at the end of the recession in 2009. Furthermore, over the last year, wages fell for all groups, except for a miniscule two-cent increase at the 10th percentile. TABLE 1 Real hourly wages in first half (FH) of year, by wage percentile,* 2007–2014 (annual 2013 dollars) 10th 20th 30th 40th 50th 60th 70th 80th 90th 95th FH2007 $8.75 $10.60 $12.40 $14.57 $17.05 $20.16 $23.85 $29.38 $39.42 $51.41 FH2009 8.80 10.76 12.71 14.92 17.40 20.59 24.72 30.57 41.10 52.56 FH2013 8.36 10.01 11.97 14.23 16.75 19.81 23.97 29.88 40.84 52.63 FH2014 8.38 9.91 11.86 14.15 16.59 19.63 23.72 29.54 40.00 52.23 Annualized percent changes 2007–2009 0.3% 0.8% 1.2% 1.2% 1.0% 1.1% 1.8% 2.0% 2.1% 1.1% 2009–2014 -1.0 -1.6 -1.4 -1.0 -0.9 -1.0 -0.8 -0.7 -0.5 -0.1 2007–2014 -0.6 -0.9 -0.6 -0.4 -0.4 -0.4 -0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 2013–2014 0.3 -1.0 -0.9 -0.5 -0.9 -0.9 -1.1 -1.1 -2.0 -0.7 * The xth-percentile wage is the wage at which x% of wage earners earn less and (100-x)% earn more. Source: EPI analysis of Current Population Survey Outgoing Rotation Group (ORG) microdata It is significant to note that this fall in real wages over the last year was not accompanied by (or associated with) a spectacular increase in inflation. At 1.6 percent, inflation over the last year has been modest, similar to the previous year’s 1.7 percent increase. Both were lower than the 2.8 percent average that prevailed from the first half of 2007 to the first half of 2014, which means that the fall in real wages over the last year is not driven by high inflation. Figure J depicts some of the data presented in Table 1 by showing the cumulative growth in real hourly wages for the 10th, 50th, and 95th percentiles between the first half of 2007 and the first half of 2014. After a sharp increase in real wages between 2008 and 2009, due primarily to negative inflation, wages for most groups fell through 2012. While there was an increase between 2012 and 2013, the increase was short-lived, and wages for all but the 10th percentile have fallen again over the last year. FIGURE JInteractive Cumulative growth in real hourly wages, by wage percentile,* 2007–2014** 95th 50th 10th 2007 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 2008 1.00% 0.10% -0.70% 2009 2.20% 2.00% 0.60% 2010 1.10% 0.70% -0.70% 2011 -0.40% -1.80% -2.80% 2012 0.40% -2.70% -4.80% 2013 2.40% -1.80% -4.40% 2014 1.60% -2.70% -4.20% 1.6% -2.7% -4.2% 95th 50th 10th 2008 2010 2012 2014 0 -5 -2.5 2.5 5% * The xth-percentile wage is the wage at which x% of wage earners earn less and (100-x)% earn more. ** Data reflect first half values for each year. Source: EPI analysis of Current Population Survey Outgoing Rotation Group microdata Show table Copy data to Excel Embed this chart It is clear that wages have continued to stagnate if not fall in 2014. Therefore, there is no evidence of upward pressure on wages—let alone acceleration of wages—that would signal that the Federal Reserve Board should worry about incipient inflation and raise interest rates in an effort to slow the economy. What is particularly striking about both Figure J and Table 1 is that every decile and the 95th percentile experienced real wage declines from the first half of 2013 to the first half of 2014, except for the 10th percentile. Granted, the 10th percentile wage only increased by two cents, or 0.3 percent; however, the fact that it did not decline along with the wages of all the other groups is worth noting. One policy that has been proven to lift wages, particularly at the bottom of the wage distribution, is the minimum wage. Figure K displays in green the states with minimum-wage increases in the first half of 2014. Of these states, the largest increases were in those with legislated increases (California, Connecticut, New Jersey, New York, and Rhode Island). The remaining states in green had smaller increases resulting from indexing the minimum wage to inflation. Conclusion The stagnation of hourly wages is the most important economic issue facing most American families, and most of our key economic challenges hinge on whether or not hourly wages for the vast majority will grow. Further, the policy roots of hourly wage trends are deep, but too often downplayed or even ignored. This is particularly true when it comes to labor market policies and business practices; reversing the deteriorating state of labor market standards and protections for low- and moderate-wage workers would be an ideal place to start rebuilding their ability to share in overall economic gains. Recent momentum to raise the federal minimum wage and restore some of the overtime protections lost in recent decades is a very encouraging beginning.
Posted on: Fri, 19 Sep 2014 02:00:01 +0000
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