College Basketball 3 Ways to Win Your NCAA Office Pool A Guide for All Kinds of Fans, From the Know-It-All to the Uninitiated; Which Mascot to By Ben Cohen connect Updated March 17, 2014 7:17 p.m. ET There are three types of people in every NCAA tournament pool, and they all score differently on the Wichita State test. Bracket rookies have no clue that Wichita State is a No. 1 seed in the tournament. Casual fans remember that the Shockers made last years Final Four and may be aware that they are undefeated. And then there are the hoopheads who know more about Wichita States statistical profile than does the Shockers coach, whom they also know is Gregg Marshall. But tournament office pools hardly reward the know-it-alls. Given the chaotic nature of March Madness, it is highly likely that someone who hasnt watched any college basketball all season will still win your pool. As the tournament gets set to begin Tuesday with a series of first-round games, then for real on Thursday, here is a guide to help each type of fan make winning predictions. Pick the favorites. This is the only foolproof way to guarantee you wont embarrass yourself. For all of the attention paid to underdogs—is there any other reason you know Florida Gulf Coast University exists?—the better team still wins most round-of-64 games. Over the last 10 seasons, the average number of double-digit seeds beating favorites was six per tournament. Meanwhile, a bracket with favorites winning every game last year would have placed in the 91st percentile of entries to ESPNs contest, a company spokeswoman said. In other words, your bracket can only be so contrary until its cuckoo. Pay attention to geography. Where a team plays is just as important as who it plays. UCLA meets Tulsa on Friday and could face a tricky round-of-32 matchup against Virginia Commonwealth. But the Bruins would benefit from their commute: The game is in nearby San Diego. This rule generally results in favoring high seeds, since the NCAA selection committee rewards the strongest teams with the shortest trips. Bear down on mascots. If you insist on filling out your bracket based on total nonsense, at least do it systematically. According to a Wall Street Journal audit last year of the animal kingdom, bears have the best NCAA tournament winning percentage of animal mascots, followed by cats, dogs and birds. Horses pull up the rear. That is good news for Baylor—not so much for Western Michigan. Related Videos In every NCAA tournament, a number of top seed teams fall. From Wichita State to Kansas, heres a look at who may fail this year. Bet on the best player. College basketballs superstars have a way of distinguishing themselves when people are actually watching college basketball. Over the last decade, NBA standout Kevin Durant was the only national player of the year whose team didnt make it to at least the NCAA tournaments Sweet 16. This season, the sports stud is Creighton senior forward Doug McDermott, who has the fifth-most career points in NCAA history. On the off chance he freezes up, Creighton counters with Grant Gibbs and Ethan Wragge, who are even better 3-point shooters than McDermott. Short your alma mater. Are you in a contest with all of your college friends? Then the smart play is to pick against your school. Beating the competition requires differentiating yourself from the crowd in small ways—and this is an easy option. Plus, this technique doubles as an emotional hedge. If you lose, at least your favorite team wins. Double down on upsets. The secret to selecting underdogs to the Sweet 16: Make sure you scout their round-of-32 opponents, too. Say you like 12th-seeded Harvard to upset Cincinnati in its opener. Do you really think the Crimson outsmart Michigan State in its next game? Try a No. 12 seed like North Dakota State instead. If the Bison get past Oklahoma, they would get the winner of San Diego State-New Mexico State, neither of which is as intimidating. Advanced Beware the slowpokes. Youre a college-basketball guru. You already have overthought eight different brackets. You felt a panic attack coming on when the statistics site kenpom briefly crashed Sunday. So you might already understand why slow teams are risky picks: A game with fewer possessions increases variance and makes upsets that much likelier. The five slowest teams in last years tournament were all higher seeds in their round-of-64 games, yet they all lost. The tortoises in this years field include East top seed Virginia and West No. 2 Wisconsin, teams that specialize in grinding down opponents by milking the clock, a hallmark that could turn out to haunt them. Dont ignore defense. No national champion in at least the last decade has cut down the nets in April with a deficient defense masked by an outrageous offense. Creighton, Duke, Michigan and Iowa win games with ultra-efficient offenses, but their defenses rank outside the top 100, a flaw that is almost impossible to overcome. Instead, bank on teams such as Arizona, Connecticut and New Mexico, who make life miserable for opponents in the half court, where most NCAA tournament games are decided. Look for value. No. 1 seeds Arizona and Florida are overwhelming statistical favorites to make the Final Four, which is yet another reason to ride them, since youll suffer as much as everyone else if youre wrong. This year, office competitions will be won in the volatile Midwest, a chaotic region loaded with four teams that have at least a 10% chance of getting to the Final Four, according to oddsmakers. Our advice: Take a flier on Wichita State. The Shockers arent as popular as defending national-champion Louisville, lack a singular talent like Duke freshman Jabari Parker and cant claim the body of work of Big Ten champion Michigan. They might be the fourth most-popular choice in their own region. But they are still a legitimate No. 1 seed whose dominance is supported by statistics: Wichita State happens to be one of two teams (besides Louisville) with a top-10 offense and defense. Picking the Shockers now seems like unconventional wisdom.
Posted on: Tue, 18 Mar 2014 17:10:42 +0000
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