Comunicato stampa Gfk Corporate GERMAN CONSUMER CLIMATE IS STRONG GOING INTO THE NEW YEAR The development of consumer sentiment in Germany has been very robust in December, with the consumer climate maintaining its upward trend. Following a value of 8.7 points in December, the overall indicator is forecasting 9.0 points for January 2015. Economic expectations and willingness to buy are improving, while income expectations have declined. Evidently consumers currently assume that the phase of economic weakness in Germany will be temporary and are expecting their domestic economy to return to growth over the coming months. This is reflected in the considerable increase recorded in economic expectations this December. The willingness to consume has also once again risen slightly and therefore further improved on its already extremely high level. In contrast, income expectations have fallen. The propensity to save has plummeted to a record low. This has contributed to the further improvement in the consumer climate as the year draws to a close. Economic expectations: end to downward trend After a downward trend lasting five consecutive months, Germans economic expectations have risen quite markedly in December. The indicator has therefore not fallen below the long-term average of zero points. In fact, it has increased by 12.9 points to 14.5 points. Despite this clear improvement, there continues to be some uncertainty among German consumers. The ongoing international crises in Iraq, Syria and Ukraine as well as the Ebola epidemic in West Africa are still having a weakening impact on the German economy. However, consumers are expecting the economy to recover relatively quickly and return to growth by spring. This view has also been echoed in recently published growth forecasts. The Ifo Institute is now predicting GDP growth of 1.5 percent for 2015. Back in November, the German Council of Economic Experts had still been forecasting just 1 percent growth for next year. German companies are also taking a more optimistic view of the future, as is reflected in the further increase in the Ifo Business Climate Index. Income expectations: decline Following two consecutive increases, income expectations fell in December. The indicator dropped by 7.5 points and now stands at 41.0 points. A lower value was last recorded exactly a year ago, in December 2013, when it declined to 39.5 points. However, the indicator is still at an extremely good level. The decrease this month is most likely attributable to the ongoing, delicate international situation rather than the framework conditions in Germany. From the consumers standpoint, the latter continue to be extremely favorable. Month after month, employment is rising to new record highs. Incomes of both employed Germans and pensioners are developing positively, which is certainly also boosted by the very low rate of inflation of well below 1 percent. Willingness to buy: further increase In contrast to the income outlook, willingness to buy once again improved in December. After a third consecutive increase, the indicator is up 1.6 points to 49.1 points. It is therefore just under the 50-point mark, which it last exceeded in July 2014. Propensity to consume is currently benefiting from the major collapse in energy prices. Heating oil and fuel have become considerably cheaper. As a result, private households have greater financial freedom for making other purchases. This is good news for retail, particularly in view of the Christmas trade.
Posted on: Fri, 19 Dec 2014 09:21:28 +0000
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