Continue - But who can be an ally of Moscow in this war? - No one. Now it is the weakest link in the policies of Putin. If Hitler were allies, Italy and Japan, and sympathy for the Fuhrer and the Nazi movement was strong in many other European countries, on the side of Putins no such support. Stalins Soviet Union, of course, defeated in World War II, when, together with Britain and the United States fought against Germany and Italy. But this is not the same as that in the solitude of one Russian forces fighting against the United States, England, Germany, Italy and the rest of Europe. By the way, Putins Russia is not Stalins Soviet Union. This is a much weaker state. The Kremlin, of course, waving a Chinese flag as a lifeline. On the map of Chinese can speak at length, can be short. I will try shortly. With reference to our conversation about the Russian-Ukrainian war or the Third World, forget about China. Only our European ignorance this colossus with feet of clay seems to us a single monolithic power. In the form in which it exists today, China was formed in 1928. So this ancient civilization, but the state is very young, with their serious problems. And because under the current Chinese communist dictatorship government-controlled Chinese media do not tell us about all the problems of this country, they do not become less. We just do not know about them. So that China - the last country interested in the violation of the world order, global stability, and the war in Europe, and even more so in the world, because Chinas economy is primarily interested in the stability and sustained investment from Western banks in the Chinese economy. The stability of this in any major war will be broken. Therefore, to get involved in international conflict on the side of Russia, China, of course, will not. However, I am far from thinking, and (which is promoted by many) that China will take advantage of Russias involvement in the war in Europe to strengthen its position in Russia, or even for territorial expansion at the expense of Russia. China peacefully waited a hundred years, until the end of Hong Kong rental UK. China still does not take military efforts to annex Taiwan, although Taiwan is certainly primordial Chinese land. This ancient civilization thinks in terms of centuries, not presidential terms. Crimean jump Putin for the Chinese - European scam stupid tribal leader, does not have the long-term thinking on the state wise, for generations to come. And if we talk about the Russian-Chinese trade, then yes, of course, Russia will start selling oil and gas to Asia instead of Europe. But the price paid for the raw material will be quite different. A zero price gives an infinite demand. Zero price anyone will take the Russian oil and gas. But on the high European prices will be nobody to sell them. So that China as a buyer of Russian Europe is no substitute. - You said that the capture of Ukraine is very important Belarus, which opens the way to the Russian army in Volhynia and Galicia bypassing Naddnepryanschiny. Now we see on Lukashenko his political maneuvers between the pro-Putin and pro-Ukrainian position. What are his chances to defend from Putin? - In the eyes of Europe and the United States Lukashenko a dictator, so sympathy for him will not. This does not mean that the world will recognize the annexation of Belarus, Russia. Does not recognize. But this will not change anything. No offense to Belarusians be said, but Belarus as a military unit - is the missing link, a blank space. What will happen to this country in connection with the Russian-Ukrainian war - at the discretion of the Russian General Staff. If you look at the map, Belarus is very important strategically for the attack on the Ukraine. Full-scale war with Ukraine is impossible without violating the sovereignty of Belarus. The Russian army, of course, will go to Ukraine, including through Belarus. In agreement with the Lukashenko or against his will - it does not matter. Lukashenko makes contradictory statements. You can understand it. Help him nowhere to wait, and what Putin he knows better than we do with you. Putin can not believe, he will deceive. Agree with him about anything Lukashenko can not, except that of total surrender. Therefore Lukashenko nervously waiting for what comes. And in the case of a full-scale Russian attack will come to Ukraine along the Russian-Belarusian-Ukrainian border: from the Crimea, through Belarus to the east and south-east. Will there be a pre-agreement has been reached between Putin and Lukashenko of Belarus entry into the Russian Federation, for the passage of Russian troops through the territory of Belarus or even the participation of Belarusian units in joint military operations against Ukraine - the question of formal technical. Protect Ukraine from Russian aggression Lukashenko seems to me, will not. - How long Russian society will be able to live in a state of pre-war and fierce propaganda, which inflates the power rating? - Indefinitely. The Russian press and television are still working in a given mode, just a little abated ardor. A single good word about Ukraine and Ukrainians, the United States and Europe on Russian television, you will not hear. The majority of the population of Russia, unfortunately, does not use the Internet, receive news only from the Russian media, and you know very well that it was show and write the Russian media about Ukraine. If Hitler and Goebbels were such propaganda tools, to conquer the world it would be much easier. Russian propaganda machine rebuild the Putin years, starting from 2000. In Russia, everything is just gasped and groaned: oh, why is Putin needed to subdue the independent Russian media. Thats it for the whole machine of meekly obeyed the orders from above: wet Chechens said - we are watering the Chechens. Georgians said wet - moisten the Georgians. Said Ukrainians - will soak Ukrainians. Such a system will exist as long as the Putin regime will survive. Rating Agencies - a separate issue. Rating can be discussed seriously in a free country. And in a truly free country is very high ratings from the government does not happen. If the rating of the governments support is too high, believe me, you are dealing with a dictatorship. All dictators always a high level of support - to the point where their revolution sweeps. I would have thought that the current Russian polls rather not talk about the level of popularity of Putin, and the level of the remaining freedom in Russia. Ill explain what I mean. After the occupation of the Crimea to Russia conducted a survey by region, who for Putin. The last thing Putin supported in Moscow, but it seems to sixty percent. Most in Chechnya - 97%. Conclusion: The level of freedom of speech in Moscow, 40% and 3% in Chechnya. In the rest of Russia - between three and forty percent. To support Putins popularity ratings have no relationship, especially as the population of Russia influence government policy has not. Elections in Russia long ago became a fiction; Parliament in all government support and became a formal instrument of power, just like the Supreme Soviet of the USSR at the time. The survey was conducted themselves only as directed above - this is another propaganda tool in the hands of the Kremlin, and only. Russia is not one of those countries where people are satisfied with the revolution every ten years. Russian citizens do not tend to throw off their government. Many (often people are smart, educated and active) refer to Russia as a platform for making money. We earn money man has no problem to reform Russia, especially since in this way too much risk. Chief, that the punishment authority may take business and businessman plant for economic crimes, as Khodorkovsky. Simply continue to make money, while give, but if something happens to go. So many people think, although not many admit it. Of course, there is a percentage of people who genuinely supports Putin. But its either fascists or nationalists, or people who have passed through a series of past wars - sick of war. In Germany, the percentage of support for Hitler was quite high. Germans is not much help after 1939. The specter of war in Russia today, few people care about, and very few people are scary. Well, there was war in Chechnya - in Russia it is in general no one has touched. Crimea captured - also without negative consequences. Russians continue to live their lives. In the minds of people in Russia do not start any shifts as long as the war did not start real worsening of living. Yet imposed sanctions against Russia are slow and feeble, but they gradually begin to work. There is more than all Europe would Putin himself, because he himself needed to impose sanctions against its own people. He must seize the initiative, insurance against global international isolation. So now he will be introduced gradually retaliatory sanctions, pretending to punish European and American businesses. Another indication of the preparation for a major war - the purchase of Russian gold increase gold reserves. This is the standard operation of the central bank of the country before the outbreak of hostilities. - Is there a threat to the division of Europe in the current Russian-Ukrainian conflict? - Any dictator keeps on layout - all you need to bleed, even within his team. This is done on a personal, national and continental level. Putin hoped to dissolve the United States and Europe, and then to find fault lines even in Europe itself. This is an important task, but, in my opinion, it is not feasible. Not even because Europe is united in the EU and will adhere to a common policy, and because of this, in fact, did not happen. This could happen only at the beginning of the conflict. There are countries that are less affected by the break-up with Russia; someone gets hurt more. But to assume that this will stop the sanctions properly. Germany depends on Russian gas supplies to Russia car. And, of course, the Germans are not interested in the suspension of trade. But while Germany suffered most as a result of two world wars, which she initiated and lost. Germany knows better than anyone what a dictator in European power and what it can cause. Yes, the German business scared sanctions against Russia. All businesses are now scared. But what happens in March of 2014 - is not about the money. All that Putin is doing - not about the money. Its about the glory of Putin understands it; about empire, as he sees it; about the history and geopolitics, as he feels them. Its a different level of the worlds problems. Period ended making money for everyone. There is a period of accumulated waste of resources. Still working of market mechanisms, to rebuild for years, is already broken. - Who will win in this war? - We know what the outcome of the previous two world wars in Europe: the complete ruin and destruction. This also applies to the losers and winners. Even the United Kingdom has suffered, not only in terms of loss of life. After World War I broke continental empire. After the second - to the east and west were divided Germany and Europe. It is difficult to talk about the winners in such a war. United States emerged from the war a world power, and since then against their will were involved in all the worlds problems. Can this be considered a win, a difficult question. Putin today fomented war - European. In Europe, all suffer from it, especially Russia. Interviewed Alexander Kurylenko August 17, 2014
Posted on: Fri, 12 Sep 2014 05:26:59 +0000
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