Conversation started Saturday Farrukh Mehmood Qammar 11/16, 7:27pm Farrukh Mehmood Qammar WEEKLY KSE UPDATE 18TH NOVEMBER TILL 22ND NOVEMBER, 2013 THE MARKET HAS CORRECTED ITSELF A BIT WHICH IS GOOD. I STRESS THAT BUY ON DIPS STRATEGY SHOULD BE FOLLOWED. I STILL MAINTAIN 24,000 BY END 2013 AND MAYBE EVEN 25,000 IS VERY POSSIBLE.. STILL KSE IS THE BEST PERFORMING MARKET THIS YEAR SO FAR AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO DO SO UNTIL IT BREAKS 21,000 ON THE DOWNSIDE WHICH AT THE MOMENT THERE SEEMS TO BE LITTLE CHANCE BARRING ANY MAJOR SUDDEN SHOCKS... WE ARE EXPECTING THIS COMING WEEK TO BE BULLISH AS KSE IS NOW NEUTRAL I AM EXPECTING A TEST OF 24,080/24,180 RESISTANCE LEVEL AT A MINIMUM… EVEN IF IT DOES MAXIMUM 25,000 TARGET BY END DECEMBER IS FORESEEN .. I STRESS AGAIN,,,, A WORD OF CAUTION ONCE AGAIN THE HIGHER WE GO THE DEEPER THE CORRECTIONS WILL BE. I AGAIN STRESS.... THOSE WHO DO MARGIN TRADING/LEVERAGING & SHORT TERM TRADERS WOULD LOOSE OUT BADLY. ONLY THOSE WHO PLAY WITH CASH HOLDINGS AND ARE MEDIUM AND LONG TERM INVESTORS WILL WIN. SO FAR THERE IS NO CHANGE IN THE MAJOR BULLISH CYCLES STILL. YEAR END TARGET OF MINIMUM 25,000 IS STILL POSSIBLE DEPENDING ON PRICE ACTION AND THE WAY THE MARKET REACTS ............ “NOW I NEED TO TEACH YOU ALL TO REMEMBER AND REMEMBER ALWAYS THAT THE HIGHER THE MARKET GOES .. 23,000 ... 25,000 MAYBE EVEN 30,000 THE CORRECTIONS WILL BE DEEPER AND BIGGER I.E. 2,500 POINTS PULLBACK WOULD STILL BE CONSIDERED A CORRECTION.. ” BUT I WOULD REPEAT A WORD OF CAUTION AT HIGHER LEVELS 24,080/24,180 AT A MINIMUM WHICH I EXPECT TO BE TOUCHED BY NOVEMBER 2013 ... THE MARKET INDICATORS ARE SHOWING THAT THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF SEEING 24,000 (ALMOST ACHIEVED) AND MORE AND MAYBE EVEN ABOVE 25,000 BY YEAR END 2013. I REPEAT WHAT I WROTE BEFORE {THE PROBLEM WHY PEOPLE LOSE MONEY IS GREED . THEY OVER TRADE/LEVERAGE THEMSELVES TO MUCH THAT WHEN THE MARKET GOES SLIGHTLY AGAINST THEY CANNOT HOLD THEIR SHARES AND GET STOPPED OUT. (THAT IS EXACTLY WHY I SAY DO NOT DO THAT TRADE WITHIN YOUR LIMITS).. }... THE PROBLEM IS PEOPLE WANT TO BECOME RICH OVERNIGHT AND THUS OVER TRADE/MARGIN TRADE NOT THINKING OF THE CONSEQUENCES.. I WANT YOU ALL TO KNOW THAT IT TOOK ME 26 YEARS OF TRADING TO GET TO THIS POSITION WITH 29 YEARS OF EXPERIENCE AND THAT’S WHY I SAY BUILD UP YOUR EQUITY SLOWLY SLOWLY . THOSE THAT BORROW MONEY/OVER TRADE/MARGIN TRADE / DAY TRADE WILL ALWAYS LOSE MONEY IN THE LONG RUN .. MEDIUM/LONG TERM INVESTORS WILL ALWAYS MAKE MONEY AS I HAVE STATED MANY TIMES… STAY WITHIN YOUR MEANS YOU WILL MAKE SMALLER PROFITS BUT THEY WILL BE PROFITS AND LIKE ME 20 YEARS DOWN THE ROAD YOU WILL INSHA ALLAH BE RICH… “KATRA KATRA KAR KAY DARYA BAANTA HAY” “ DROP BY DROP AN OCEAN IS MADE.. SOME GREAT NEWS ......... BYCO LOSS IS NOW ALMOST OVER AND ALSO ITS LIQUIDITY PROBLEMS . DECEMBER 2012 BREAKEVEN NOT ACHIEVED DUE TO FINANCIAL CHARGES. BYCO UPDATE AND FUTURE COURSE OF ACTION FOR EVERYONE TO TAKE IF THEY WANT TO. MARCH 2013 RESULTS SHOWED A NET LOSS OF RS 2.40 BILLION WHICH LESS THAN DEC 2012 FIGURED OF NET LOSS OF RS 3.70 BILLION SHOWING THAT THE LOSS IS DECREASING BY RS 1.30 BILLION THUS JUNE 2013 (FINAL-FULL YEARS) RESULTS EXPECTED ARE A NET LOSS OF RS 0.8 TO RS 1.00 BILLION.. AND SEPT. 2013 (1ST QTR) SHOULD SHOW A MINOR PROFIT OF RS 0.40 BILLION.. THIS YOU ALL CAN USE FOR FUTURE REFERENCE . SO BREAKEVEN EXPECTED SEPT 2013 RESULTS DUE OUT IN FEB. - MARCH 2014 AND AS STATED BEFORE AM EXPECTING RS 20/22 AREA WHEN IT ACHIEVES. BREAKEVEN.. BYCO har saal behtar he hota jaee ga .. 2014 main Rs 20-22 minimum and Possibly Rs 30-35 bhi shayad ho.. In 2015 main Rs 30-35 minimum and Possibly Rs 50 bhi shayad ho.. In 2016 Rs 50 minimum expected and possibly Rs 65 bhi shayad ho... Am expecting IMPROVEMENT EVERY YEAR.. THATS WHY ONLY BYCO HAS POTENTIAL AS TURNAROUND COMPANY.. NOW BACK TO THE ANALYSIS… THIS COMING WEEK SUPPORTS @ 22,600/22,700 SHOULD HOLD THE WEAKNESS AS THE TEST OF OUR NEW TARGETS OF 24,000 AREA AND MUCH HIGHER. SO HIGHER HIGHS AND HIGHER LOWS. RESISTANCE FOR THIS WEEK SHOULD BE AT 24,080/24,180 .. NEEDLESS TO STATE FOREIGN AND NOW LOCAL INVESTMENT IS COMING INTO THE MARKET AND ANYTHING IS POSSIBLE. ALL MY TARGETS HAVE BEEN ACHIEVED EXCEPTING BYCO WHICH SHOULD ALSO BE INSHA ALLAH EVENTUALLY ACHIEVED....... I REPEAT ENGRO, BYCO. QUICE , KESC , JSCL , SPL , BIPL STILL HAVE A LONG WAY TO GO UPWARDS ENGRO (TARGET ALREADY ACHIEVED OF RS 125) NOW NEW {NEW TARGET OF RS 155/165 BY JULY/AUG 2013 (ACHIEVED)TARGETS OF OUR OTHER SHARES HAVE BEEN MET AND ARE NOW BEING REVISED FOR EXAMPLE ATRL , NML, NCL , ETC ETC AND BYCO RS 20/24 (TARGET STILL TO BE ACHIEVED) BY NOW WOULD UNFORTUNATELY SAY SEPT. 2013 AND RS 27/30 BY YEAR END 2013 ........... OUR TARGET OF AT LEAST 24,000 (ALMOST ACHIEVED) AND MAYBE EVEN MUCH MUCH HIGHER... INSHA ALLAH..... I DON’T WANT TO SOUND TOO OPTIMISTIC BUT AS ITS ELECTION YEAR AND UNCERTAINTY WILL PREVAIL THAT’S WHY MY “HOPE” OF KSE REACHING 25,000 THIS YEAR IS ALSO A POSSIBILITY BUT LIKE I SAID TOO MANY FACTORS AND UNCERTAINTIES ARE THERE TO SOUND OVERLY CONFIDENT.. I STILL MAINTAIN THAT BYCO HAS MUCH LOTS OF SCOPE AS OF COURSE DOES BOP , ENGRO, KESC & QUICE FOODS. IN QUICE FOODS I WOULD ADVISE PEOPLE TO TAKE PROFITS ABOVE RS 12.00/13.00 AREA....... AS COMPANY IS WITNESSING SOME CONSOLIDATION AND EXPANSION INTO OTHER AREAS. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF SATTA IN QUICE ALSO AS WHEN THOSE WHICH HAVE HEAVY LOSSES ( PIA, TELECARD , WTL , WTCL , PACE , PERVEZ SECURITIES, JAPAN POWER , WATEEN, ETC ETC ) ARE BEING TRADED AT 10 TIMES THEIR VALUE SO CHANCES OF QUICE COULD BE RS 17/RS 20 AS IT DID BEFORE AND AS IT HAS TREMENDOUS FUTURE PROSPECT ALL DEPENDING ON THEIR PROFESSIONAL OWNERS... IT IS ALWAYS BETTER TO BE SELECTIVE WHERE TO BUY AND WHERE TO TAKE PROFITS AS THESE SHARES CAN STILL GO MUCH HIGHER FFC , ENGRO, ATRL , PSO, OGDC , PPL, POL, NRL , BYCO , QUICE , KESC, BIPL, SITC , TREET , ICI , AKZO , JSCL , ANL, EFOODS, KESC, MARI , SNGP, SSGC , CLARIANT PAK, ETC ETC . AS I SAID BEFORE NOW THE WORLD EYES ARE NOW DEFINITELY ON KSE AND FOREIGN INVESTMENT IS SLOWLY COMING INTO KSE AND WILL DRIVE IT TO NEW HIGHS POSSIBLY EVEN 24,000 OR HIGHER POSSIBLY EVEN 25,000 THIS YEAR AND MAYBE EVEN 30,000 IN 2014. EVEN OUR PAKISTANI PEOPLE WITH BLACK MONEY HAVE REALISED THAT MAKING IT WHITE AND GETTING MAXIMUM PROFIT CAN EASILY BE HAD IN THE STOCK EXCHANGE... WITH THE DE MUTUALIZATION OF STOCK EXCHANGES FOREIGN FUNDS WILL ENTER THE PAKISTANI MARKET IN A MUCH BIGGER WAY ( I AM EXPECTING AN INVESTMENT OF MINIMUM US$ 1 OR US$ 2 BILLION OR MAYBE EVEN MORE NOW) AND THAT IS WHY I FORECAST EVEN 25,000 BY 2013 END IS POSSIBLE ... SO SELECTIVE BUYING ON DIPS WOULD REMAIN MY MEDIUM AND LONG TERM STRATEGY AS I SEE NEW HIGHS EVENTUALLY.. I REPEAT BYCO & NOW ALSO ENGRO ARE MY SPECIAL GOLDEN SHARES ALONG WITH KESC, QUICE & THE JAHANGIR GROUP (JSCL, JSIL, BIPL, ANL, JS BANK, JS GLOBAL, JSVL, JS GROWTH ALSO HUM TV ) ALSO SHOULD NOW START ITS UPWARD JOURNEY AS WILL BYCO.. SOME PEOPLE HAVE BEEN SPREADING RUMORS AND THIS NEWS ITEM APPEARS BEARISH AND PEOPLE (BIG GUNS) HAVE SOLD BYCO ....REMEMBER NOW BYCO IS THE LARGEST REFINERY IN PAKISTAN ALSO THEY HAVE OTHER THINGS THAT OTHER REFINERIES DO NOT HAVE. I AM WAITING FOR JUNE 2013 BALANCE SHEET... THAT WILL SHOW EVERYONE A CLEARER PICTURE IF IT IS IN A HEAVY LOSS OR NEAR BREAK EVEN (WHICH I THINK ITS NEAR BREAKEVEN)... BYCO HAS UNDER PERFORMED AND IS LAGGING SO THERE IS A LOT OF SCOPE FOR IT TO GO MUCH MUCH HIGHER LIKE I SAID TO RS 20/22 BY NOW JULY 2014. FFC AND ENGRO ARE OTHER SHARES THAT ARE LAGGING. BYCO NOW MY TARGET (STILL) EXPECTED @ RS 30/35 BY END 2014 ENGRO TARGET OF RS 145/RS 155... ALREADY ACHIEVED ONCE NOW FRESH TARGET OF RS 155/RS 165 IN JULY/AUGUST 2013(ALSO ACHIEVED). FFC TARGET RS 130/RS 135... IS NOW EXPECTED BY YEAR END 2013 I STILL FEEL THAT BOTH QUICE & BYCO, HAVE BEEN UNDER PERFORMERS AND NOW I FEEL THAT THIS MONTH AND COMING MONTHS IT WILL BE NOW BOTH QUICE & BYCOS TURN TO PERFORM AND ALSO ENGRO TO START PERFORMING AS MY OTHER SHARES OF QUICE , KESC , ATRL HAVE DONE.. I WILL CONTINUE TO BUY ATRL, BYCO, FFC, ENGRO, EPCL, CLARIANT PAK, NRL , PRL , JSCL , LUCKY, DGKC , ATTOCK CEMENT, NCL, NML, BIPL, ANL, PSO, POL, PPL , OGDC, MARI, NIB, BOP, MCB , NBP, HBL, ABL, ACIL, EFU, CYAN, PAKRI, APL , ICI , DAWH, AKZO , SITC , SPL AND NOW ALSO TREET ON DIPS. I AM LOOKING FOR LOWER LEVELS TO RE BUY OTHER SHARES AS WELL.. I HAVE ADDED SITARA CHEMICAL , CLARIANT PAK, SPL, ALSO TO MY PORTFOLIO AS SEE IT ALSO AS ATTRACTIVE... MY FAVORITES REMAIN. ENGRO , FFC , ATRL , BYCO , KESC , SPL, JSCL , POL , PPL , NRL , SITC, LUCKY , DGKC, JSCL , ENGRO , NML, NCL , BIPL, EPCL, AZKO, NIB, BOP, MCB , ANL , EFOODS , ICI, AICL, EFU , . I HAVE ADDED TREET, ENGRO FOODS, ANL , NIB TO MY PORTFOLIO. I HAVE ALSO ADDED ANL (AZGARD 9), SITC, SPL, TREET , PTCL , CLARIANT PAK, MARI, SSGC & SNGP, TO MY PORTFOLIO AS SEE THEM MUCH HIGHER... .. I AGAIN REQUEST MY FRIENDS TO STAY WITHIN THEIR MEANS (BUY AND HOLD ONLY WHAT YOU CAN - NO LEVERAGE). I STILL THINK WE WILL SEE FURTHER NEW HIGHS THIS YEAR AND EVEN POSSIBLY 25,000 BY END OF THE YEAR..... SO FAR MY MODEL HAS NOT CHANGED ANYTHING. A POINT I WANT TO MY FRIENDS & READERS TO KNOW KEEP A LOOKOUT FOR SIGNS OF I REPEAT -->> WHATEVER RALLY YOU SEE YOU SHOULD START THINKING ABOUT TAKING PROFITS ON KATCHRA SHARES -> BEWARE (TAKE PROFITS/GET OUT) OF THESE KATCHRA SHARES.. .. PIA , TRG , NETSOL, TELECARD , WATEEN , WORLDCALL , DEWAN GROUP , PACE , JAPAN POWER, TPL TRAKKER, NOW TIME TO BUY BIPL , ANL, JSCL , KESC , QUICE , BYCO , ATRL , PSO , PPL , POL , OGDC , PTCL, SNGP, SSGC , SPL , NRL , ENGRO , EFOODS, FFC, LUCKY , DGKC , MCB , HBL , NBP, ABL, UBL, MEEZAN , BOP , EFY , PAKRI, SITC , AKZO , ICI , TREET , AICL , CYAN , BOTH EFUS , NCL , NML , CLARIANT , PICT , SIEMENS , BOTH UNILEVERS , ASKARI BANK , KAPCO , ALL PHARMA , NESTLE , NATF , MITCHELLS , MILLAT TRACTORS , AL GHAZI , HINOPAK , THAL , PACKAGES , DAWH , MARI , ALSO ADDING ATTOCK GROUP, PICT, TRIPF, JS BANK, KOHINOOR MILLS, COLGATE, GADOON, KOHE CRESENT STEEL ETC ETC .. REMEMBER MOST HAVE NOW PAID THEIR DIVIDENDS AND ARE TRADING EX DIVIDEND THUS MY TARGETS HAVE BEEN MET IN ALL EXCEPTING BYCO WHICH SHOULD START UPTREND ANY DAY.......... ATRL@ 174-184 BUY STILL MAINTAIN IT CAN GO TO RS 275 BY APRIL 2014 BYCO @ 8.20 - 8.70 - BUY AS SEE IT AT RS 20 - 25 BY JULY 2014 & RS 35/40 BY END 2014 POL @ 446-456 BUY AS IT CAN GO TO RS 550 BY APRIL 2014 PPL @ 194-204 BUY AS IT CAN GO TO RS 265 BY APRIL 2014 PSO @ 278-288 BUY AS IT CAN GO TO RS 375 BY APRIL 2014 MARI @ 152-162 BUY AS IT CAN GO TO RS 215 (ACHIEVED) NEW TARGET SAME PRICE RS 215 BY APRIL 2014 NRL @ 179-189 BUY AS IT CAN GO TO RS 285 BY APRIL 2014 OGDC @ 247 - 257 BUY AS IT CAN GO TO RS 265 BY YEAR END 2013(ACHIEVED) RS 277 NEW TARGET IS POSSIBLE BY YEAR END 2013 CPL@240/250 BUY AS IT CAN GO TO RS 300/310 BY APRIL 2014 DAWH@42/52 BUY AS IT CAN GO TO RS 65/70 BY APRIL 2014 ENGRO@130/140 BUY AS IT CAN GO TO RS 190/200 BY APRIL 2014 [email protected] BUY AS IT CAN GO TO RS 15/16 BY APRIL 2014 [email protected] BUY AS IT CAN GO TO RS 130 BY APRIL 2014 [email protected] BUY AS IT CAN GO TO RS 45/47 BY APRIL 2014 [email protected] BUY AS IT CAN GO TO RS 200 BY APRIL 2014 SITC @ 205.00 - 215.00 BUY AS IT CAN GO TO RS 245 BY APRIL 2014 SPL @ 13.25 - 13.75 BUY AS IT CAN GO TO RS 17 / 19 BY APRIL 2014 AKZO@ 75 - 85 BUY STILL IT CAN GO TO RS 75/80 IN OCTOBER 2013 (ACHIEVED) NEW TARGET OF RS 90/92 BY YEAR END 2013 ATTOCK CEMENT@ 138 - 148 BUY STILL IT CAN GO TO RS 170/175 BY APRIL 2014 DGKC@ 60 - 70 BUY STILL IT CAN GO TO RS 100/110 BY APRIL 2014 KOHC@ 67 - 77 BUY STILL IT CAN GO TO RS 100/110 BY APRIL 2014 LUCKY @ 238-248 BUY AS IT CAN GO TO RS 255/265 BY APRIL 2014 EFOODS @ RS 75 - RS 85.00 BUY AS THINK IT CAN GO TO RS 175 BY APRIL 2014 QUICE @ 5.00 - 6.00 BUY FOR NOW NEW LOWER TARGET OF RS 14/RS 17 BY APRIL 2014 ANL @ 5.20 - 5.70 BUY AS IT CAN GO TO RS 11/12 BY APRIL 2014 NCL@ 43.00- 53.00 BUY AS IT CAN GO TO RS 75 BY APRIL 2014 NML@ 88.00-98.00 BUY AS IT CAN GO TO RS 120/125 BY APRIL 2014 TREET @ 77- 87 BUY AS IT CAN GO TO RS 230 BY SEPT. 2013(TARGET ACHIEVED AND EXCEEDED) NEW TARGET RS 100 BY APRIL 2014 PTCL @ 25.50-26.50 BUY AS IT CAN GO TO RS 29.00/30.00 BY APRIL 2014 KESC @ 5.25 - 5.75 BUY FOR INITIAL TARGET OF RS 8/RS 9 BY APRIL 2014 SNGPL @ 18.75 - 19.75 BUY FOR INITIAL TARGET OF RS 24/RS 25 BY APRIL 2014 SSGC @ 22.50 - 23.50 BUY FOR INITIAL TARGET OF RS 27/RS 28 BY APRIL 2014 ABL @ 73- 83 BUY AS IT CAN GO TO RS 95/100 BY APRIL 2014 AKBL @ 11.75 - 12.75 BUY AS IT CAN GO TO RS 18/19 BY APRIL 2014 BOP @ 10.75 - 11.75 BUY AS IT CAN GO TO RS 16/17 BY APRIL 2014 BAFL @ 24 - 25 BUY AS IT CAN GO TO RS 30/32 BY APRIL 2014 BIPL @ 5.50 - 6.00 BUY AS IT CAN GO TO RS 12/13 BY YEAR END 2013 HBL @ 148 - 158 BUY AS IT CAN GO TO RS 175 BY YEAR END 2013 MCB @ 275 - 285 BUY AS IT CAN GO TO RS 330 BY APRIL 2014 MEEZANBANK @ 33 – 38 BUY AS IT CAN GO TO RS 50 BY APRIL 2014 NBP @ 50 – 55 BUY AS IT CAN GO TO RS 70 BY YEAR END 2013 NIB @ 2.20 - 2.60 BUY AS IT CAN GO TO RS 7/RS 9 IN 2-3 YEARS AICL @ 78 - 88 BUY AS IT CAN GO TO RS 100 BY APRIL 2014 CYAN @ 55-65 BUY AS IT CAN GO TO RS 90/95 BY APRIL 2014 EFU GEN. @ 73-83 BUY AS IT CAN GO TO RS 100 BY APRIL 2014 IGI @ 128-138 BUY AS IT CAN GO TO RS 150/155 BY APRIL 2014 PAKRI @ 25 - 26 BUY AS IT CAN GO TO RS 29 BY APRIL 2014 JSCL@ 8.25-9.25 BUY AS I THINK IT CAN GO TO RS 20-22 BY APRIL 2014 BYCO, KESC , ENGRO , ATRL & QUICE ARE MY GOLDEN LONG TERM PORTFOLIO
Posted on: Mon, 18 Nov 2013 04:46:43 +0000
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