DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1148 PM CST FRI DEC 26 2014 VALID 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE WRN GULF COAST STATES... ...SUMMARY... SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS PARTS OF THE WESTERN GULF COAST STATES. LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS...MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL...AND A BRIEF TORNADO WILL BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. ...SYNOPSIS... LONGWAVE TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE N-CNTRL TO SW CONUS WILL FEATURE TWO EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE IMPULSES. THE LEAD IMPULSE WILL PROGRESS NE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES TODAY...WHILE THE UPSTREAM IMPULSE ACCELERATES E REACHING CHIHUAHUA AND THE TX TRANS-PECOS EARLY SUN. SURFACE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEAD FEATURE WILL REACH THE MID-SOUTH TO TX COASTAL PLAIN BY AFTERNOON...WHILE A WEAK WARM FRONT BECOMES ESTABLISHED ACROSS NRN/CNTRL LA INTO FAR SRN MS. ...WRN GULF COAST... DESPITE NEUTRAL MID-LEVEL HEIGHT CHANGE THROUGH EARLY EVENING...A WARM CONVEYOR BELT WILL PERSIST AHEAD OF THE SRN GREAT PLAINS COLD FRONT. GOES PW DATA ALONG WITH OBSERVATIONS OF MIDDLE 60S TO LOWER 70S SURFACE DEW POINTS CONFIRM A SEASONABLY RICH MOISTURE PLUME EMANATING N FROM THE WRN GULF. NEVERTHELESS...INITIAL LINGERING OF A SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY...WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS/SCATTERED WAA-DRIVEN SHOWERS...AND MODEST MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF AROUND 6-6.5 DEG C/KM FROM 700-500 MB WILL LIMIT THE EXTENT/DEGREE OF INLAND WARM SECTOR DESTABILIZATION. BUT WHERE WEAK DIABATIC HEATING CAN OCCUR /MOST LIKELY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL PLAIN/...THE COMBINATION OF LOW-LEVEL WAA AND FRONTAL/PRE-FRONTAL CONFLUENCE SHOULD RESULT IN SCATTERED TSTMS FORMING BY EARLY AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE MODERATE...STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR UPDRAFT ROTATION. AMIDST A PROBABLE CLUSTER-TYPE MODE...A FEW WEAK/TRANSIENT SUPERCELLS MAY DEVELOP AND YIELD A MARGINAL SEVERE RISK. ..GRAMS/MOSIER.. 12/27/2014
Posted on: Sat, 27 Dec 2014 12:03:25 +0000
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