DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1257 AM CDT WED JUL 03 2013 VALID 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN NM AND SOUTHEAST AZ... ...SYNOPSIS... TO THE SOUTH OF AN INCREASINGLY PROGRESSIVE BELT OF WESTERLIES OVER CANADA...AN AMPLIFIED LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL PERSIST OVER THE CONUS THROUGH THE PERIOD. AN UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN/SHIFT WEST OF THE MS RIVER...FLANKED BY A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND A SLIGHTLY WEAKENING WESTERN STATES UPPER RIDGE. ...NM AND CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST AZ AND SOUTHERN CO... INTO THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...THE OVERALL PATTERN/SCENARIO OVER THE REGION WILL HAVE CHANGED RELATIVELY LITTLE FROM TUESDAY...WITH A RELATIVELY MOIST AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION IN CONJUNCTION WITH RELATIVELY STRONG NORTHERLY MID-HIGH LEVEL WINDS. AT LEAST WIDELY SCATTERED IF NOT SCATTERED TSTMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP/INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CO AND ESPECIALLY NM. SUFFICIENT SHEAR/DESTABILIZATION WILL EXIST FOR SUSTAINED MULTICELLS/PERHAPS SOME BRIEF SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF ISOLATED INSTANCES OF SEVERE HAIL. BY LATE AFTERNOON...STORMS ARE LIKELY TO CLUSTER/ORGANIZE INTO LINEAR BANDS WHILE PROPAGATING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF NM AND PERHAPS ONTO THE DESERT FLOOR OF SOUTHEAST AZ THROUGH EARLY/MID EVENING. ...SOUTHEAST STATES/APPALACHIANS... WHILE UPPER HEIGHT RISES WILL CONTINUE TO OCCUR OVER THE REGION...A RELATIVELY MOIST AIRMASS /NEAR OR ABOVE 70F SURFACE DEWPOINTS/ WILL REMAIN ALONG/EAST OF A PERSISTENT NORTHEAST-SOUTHWEST ORIENTED FRONTAL ZONE...BENEATH A MODERATE BELT /25-35 KT/ OF SOUTHERLY MID-LEVEL WINDS. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL REMAIN QUITE COMMON...WITH TSTMS MORE PREVALENT INTO THE AFTERNOON INCLUDING THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME STRONGER/POSSIBLY SEVERE TSTMS CAPABLE OF DOWNBURSTS. BUT...SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...THE PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER RIDGE/WEAK LAPSE RATES ALOFT AND RELATIVELY LIMITED DESTABILIZATION SHOULD LIMIT THE OVERALL SCOPE/MAGNITUDE OF THE SEVERE RISK. POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED WIND DAMAGE ASIDE...SOME TRANSIENT SUPERCELLS AND POTENTIALLY ISOLATED/BRIEF TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL EXIST THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST STATES...ESPECIALLY IF LOW-LEVEL FLOW INDEED STRENGTHENS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT IN CONJUNCTION WITH A LOW ALONG THE GULF COAST/INTERIOR SOUTHEAST STATES AS PROGGED BY VARIOUS 00Z-BASED NUMERICAL GUIDANCE. EVEN SO...ANY SUCH POTENTIAL WILL LIKELY BE TEMPERED BY TONIGHT VIA A SLIGHTLY COOLER NOCTURNAL BOUNDARY LAYER. ...MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES... AS HAS BEEN THE CASE OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS...WEAK DESTABILIZATION WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST OF A WEAK SURFACE LOW AND IN VICINITY OF A WEAK/PERSISTENT FRONT AND/OR SURFACE TROUGH. MODERATELY STRONG SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL WINDS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR FOR SOME SEMI-SUSTAINED MULTICELLS AND PERHAPS A FEW TRANSIENT SUPERCELLS /MOST PROBABLE ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF INDIANA AND OH INTO LOWER MI/. LOCALIZED BOUTS OF WIND DAMAGE/MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING IN AREAS FROM NEAR THE MIDDLE OH RIVER VALLEY NORTHWARD INTO LOWER MI. ...GREAT BASIN/NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION... ANOTHER DAY OF WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS ARE ANTICIPATED WITHIN A RELATIVELY MOIST AIRMASS ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE FLATTENING UPPER RIDGE. SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF DOWNBURSTS AND POSSIBLY MARGINAL HAIL FROM THE SIERRA NEVADA EASTWARD INTO PARTS OF ID/NORTHERN UT AND WY. ...NORTHEAST MT/WESTERN ND... NEAR A SOUTHEASTWARD-ADVANCING FRONT...STORMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS/INTO PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST MT/WESTERN ND LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY TONIGHT. SHOULD THIS OCCUR...ISOLATED BOUTS OF SEVERE WINDS AND/OR HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE.
Posted on: Wed, 03 Jul 2013 11:22:25 +0000
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