DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1130 AM CST MON DEC 22 2014 VALID 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY/GULF COAST STATES... ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE SLGT RISK AREA... ...SUMMARY... STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND THE GULF COAST STATES...MAINLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND POSSIBLY A FEW TORNADOES. ...SYNOPSIS... A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED LARGE-SCALE PATTERN WILL EXIST OVER THE CONUS ON TUESDAY. THIS SCENARIO WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED BY AN INITIALLY POSITIVE-TILT TROUGH OVER THE LOWER MO VALLEY/SOUTHERN PLAINS...WITH THE TROUGH EXPECTED TO TAKE ON A MORE NEUTRAL TILT LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS IT SHIFTS EASTWARD TOWARD THE OZARKS/ARKLATEX. ...LOWER MS VALLEY/CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION... AS MENTIONED IN THE PRIOR OUTLOOK...EARLY DAY CONVECTION/WEAK BUOYANCY REMAINS A COMPLICATING AND POSSIBLE...IF NOT PROBABLE...LIMITING FACTOR /ESPECIALLY WITH NORTHWARD EXTENT/ FOR A MORE CONSEQUENTIAL SEVERE RISK. EXTENSIVE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS INLAND ARE LIKELY TO DETER THE INLAND ADVANCEMENT OF A RICHER MARITIME AIR MASS...THUS POTENTIALLY KEEPING DESTABILIZATION VERY MARGINAL /ONLY A FEW HUNDRED J PER KG MLCAPE/ ROUGHLY IN AREAS 100+ MILES AWAY FROM THE GULF COAST. GIVEN THE PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED LARGE-SCALE EVOLUTION...OVERALL FORCING/CONFLUENCE ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR WILL INITIALLY BE MODEST. ALTHOUGH AT LEAST A CONDITIONAL SEVERE RISK WILL EXIST GIVEN GRADUAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING AND AN INCREASINGLY STRONG LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/NIGHT. A SOMEWHAT MORE ORGANIZED SEVERE RISK COULD EVOLVE BY LATE AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS A CORRIDOR INTO SOUTHEAST LA/SOUTHERN MS INTO SOUTHERN AL AND PARTS OF THE FL PANHANDLE. AN INCREASINGLY STRONG CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME WILL CONTRIBUTE TO WEAK SURFACE LOW/NORTHEASTWARD FRONTAL WAVE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO INTO PARTS OF LA/MS AND WESTERN/NORTHERN AL LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. GIVEN ADEQUATE BUOYANCY /PARTICULARLY WITHIN 100 MILES OR SO OF THE COAST/...EFFECTIVE SHEAR FROM 40-50 KT WILL SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED STORMS INCLUDING BOTH SUPERCELLS AND BOWING SEGMENTS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND POSSIBLY A FEW TORNADOES.
Posted on: Tue, 23 Dec 2014 00:24:11 +0000
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