DEMS–RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 09-10-2013 SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 1800 UTC OF 09 OCTOBER, 2013 BASED ON 1500 UTC OF 09 OCTOBER, 2013. THE CYCLONIC STORM, PHAILIN OVER EAST CENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL REMAINED PRACTICALLY STATIONERY, AND LAY CENTRED AT 2030 HRS IST OF TODAY, 09TH OCTOBER 2013 OVER NEAR LATITUDE 13.50N AND LONGITUDE 92.50E, ABOUT 220 KM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF PORT BLAIR, 950KM SOUTHEAST OF PARADIP, 1100 KM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF VISAKHAPATNAM. THE SYSTEM WOULD INTENSIFY INTO A SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM DURING NEXT 24 HOURS. IT WOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARDS FOR SOME TIME AND THEN NORTHWESTWARDS AND CROSS NORTH ANDHRA PRADESH AND ODISHA COAST BETWEEN KALINGAPATNAM AND PARADIP BY NIGHT OF 12TH OCTOBER, 2013 AS A VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM WITH A MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED OF 175-185 KMPH. ACCORDING TO SATELLITE IMAGERIES, THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM IS T 2.5. INTENSE TO VERY INTENSE CONVECTION IS SEEN OVER NORTH ANDAMAN SEA ADJOINING ISLANDS AND AREA BETWEEN LAT 10.00N TO 15.00N AND LONG 89.00E TO 95.00E AND EAST CENTRAL BAY. THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION HAS INCREASED GRADUALLY WITH RESPECT TO HEIGHT AND ORGANISATION DURING PAST 06 HRS. THE LOWEST CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURE (CTT) IS ABOUT -800C. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WIND SPEED IS ESTIMATED TO BE ABOUT 30 KNOTS GUSTING TO 40 KNOTS AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTRE. THE STATE OF THE SEA IS ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTRE. THE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS ABOUT 1002 HPA
Posted on: Wed, 09 Oct 2013 20:02:22 +0000
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