DISCUSSION... LINGERING MOISTURE AND VARIOUS WEAK DISTURBANCES IN THE ATMOSPHERE WILL RESULT IN CONTINUING LOW CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN FAIRLY WARM FOR MID- SEPTEMBER. THE NEXT MAJOR EVENT APPEARS TO BE A STORM SYSTEM DUE TO ARRIVE THIS WEEKEND. MODELS ARE IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT MOISTURE WILL INCREASE FURTHER...POSSIBLY ENHANCED BY MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH FORMER HURRICANE ODILE...AND THAT THE STORM SYSTEM WILL BEGIN ITS MAIN EFFECTS LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THE MODELS DO NOT AGREE...HOWEVER...ON THE EXIT STRATEGY OF THE STORM. THE ECMWF KEEPS THE SYSTEM OVER OKLAHOMA LONG ENOUGH TO GENERATE HUGE AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL...WHILE THE GFS IS QUICKER TO ADVANCE THE STORM...RESULTING IN LESS EXTREME RAINFALL AMOUNTS. OUR FORECAST IS CLOSER TO THE GFS...AND WE CERTAINLY HOPE THIS IS THE MORE CORRECT OUTCOME...SINCE THE ECMWF SCENARIO WOULD LIKELY RESULT IN SERIOUS FLOODING. &&
Posted on: Tue, 16 Sep 2014 21:28:00 +0000
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