DISGUISED FACTS By Azizus Samad Azad The late Abdus Samad Azad used to say that Bangladesh as now independent country would be the most inherited recipient of the future’s Geopolitical and strategic adjustments within - out side the region and particularly it will act as a portal vein to North Eastern region even farther to India if ever the Seven sister states became a loose Confederation within or out side the Indian Constitution. Needless to say it carouses to say such things. However, Bangladesh as a Democratic and liberal country can facilitate the people by starting arrival visa service available for Indians living across those boarders. Bangladesh is a country of strategic importance. It is the seventh largest country in the world by population symbolizing a moderate, tolerant, secular, democratic alternative to violent extremism. A leader in promoting regional connectivity and improved ties with its neighbors, Bangladesh promotes stability in a troubled region to foster global peace. Recently during the visit of U.S Secretary and her Counterpart announced the US-Bangladesh Partnership Dialogue to provide strategic direction to the wide array of existing and future partnership perspective. The United States and Bangladesh cooperate closely on security issues ranging from counterterrorism to counter piracy and the mitigation of natural disasters. The Government of Bangladesh has also consistently prioritized greater regional integration- a key U.S. interest in a region that remains among the least integrated in the world. We need to look at our relations with the ground dimensions to promote peace and stability in inter and intra regional views for co operating with other nations along with US, particularly in economic and security aspects. Did Bangladesh signed the Transit deal only with India or is USA also part of the deal? Why the TIFA deal has not been signed? Is Transit-TIFA going to benefit Bangladesh? Because of its strategic position, Bangladesh is trying to play a larger role for peace and stability in the regions in general and particularly to the Indian subcontinent along with the other side of the Eastern Block. However, US in this part of the region at this point and time is probably asserting her alignments to create a Strategic hedge against the increasing Cino-centric-Continent, this includes strategic partnership with the Indians and increased Economic, Defense and security interaction with in the existing US supporting States in East for better Asia-Pacific partnership. Although Indians are also aligned with this new strategic rebalancing to counter Chinese partnership advances but without inbuilt support from within the other neighborly countries, Keeping in view the facts and realities, it will not be a plausible exercise for a country like India to take such a long strategic jump for reaching out to the other Anchoring States like Japan, South Korea in Asia for any kind of co operation without having inbuilt depth. Above all India also can’t overlook the Cino-Indian advantages and this centric gravitational pull may put US Asia-Pacific partnership at bay with regards to time factor. Along side, it will have to be engaged within the Sub continental neighborly countries to create its depth integration also with out breaches to respective national sentiments which in the existing circumstances are not portrayed with a clear vision of peace and economic prosperity. If one assumes that the US had no less enthusiasm in establishing The EU, then Germany with its locomotive was USAs best friend in the Union. Even though many members of the Union were skeptical about Germany’s lasting integration in EU because of their superiority nationalism complex and past experience in the 2nd World War but US influence mostly took care of that problem. France had the intent to run the Union in its won shade, but was never fully successful in the face of the combined military and economic power of US and Germany. Because of its historical stand, the island nation of Great Britten is playing its role as if it is the Unions united-states. In Europe, Great Britten and USA is playing a very similar role. It is not a historical coincidence that the US has been engaged in over 100 military conflicts, foreign invasions, covert overthrows, destabilizations and overt interventions in the affairs of other nations during latter half of the 20th century and in the first decade of the current era. It has been the result of an ideological project to exploit other nations’ resources for their own enrichment. Sea plays a vital role to serve those purposes. There is a saying that he who rules the ocean, rules the world. History stands testimony to this phrase. Only Mongols established an empire based on land, even though some historians label it as regional power. Besides, those historical super powers almost never reached the border of another similar power to appear as the ultimate super power. Only USA gained that status after the demise of the former Soviet Union. As the only remaining super power, US have been labeled as a Hyper-Power by some. At present, no nation is able to challenge its military might and USA is working hard to keep its reaching out status. For the sake of world peace or using this as an excuse, the US has assumed the role of world-police. And we should not be surprised if US is trying to do so through the use of NATO and other treaties. Even in a peaceful world the oceans are the source of vital energy such as oil and gas and the arteries of trade and commerce. So it is obvious that US would try to gain supremacy over not only the Atlantic but also over the Indian Ocean and the Pacific. The coordinated role of Russia and China in the present Syrian crisis is no coincidence but should be considered as a vital pivoting test case. If they succeed in their policy, then a little shift in foreign policy by Iran and Turkey (Turkey is facing many internal challenges and also trying hard to find their identity, i.e. whether they are European or Asian) and the unification of North and South Korea would create a sphere that US military would find hard to bring under its control and US may even find it hard to maintain control over places such as Lake Baikal, The Caspian Sea, The Mediterranean, Baltic Sea, Black Sea and Strait of Hormuz, all of which are the routes and arteries of vital trade and energy, namely oil and gas. All big powers know that war will destroy their nation without solving their problems. So maintaining status-quo is their primary policy. The war of tomorrow is the war of business and economic dominance. Playing war-games is acceptable in the name of joint military exercise as long as there is no smell of explosive in the air. Even though the far eastern nations such as Japan and South Korea are still under US influence, the ever increasing Chinese influence in the region will bring that under question. 2014 may bring US out from the trap of Afghanistan, but she will need a friend like Great Britten of Europe to manage her affairs in the region of Indian Ocean. Presently it is not enough to control the region through an US influenced alliance between Japan, South Korea, Thailand and a base in Diego Garcia. Other than Saudi Arabia, all USA anchors are island based; Even Saudi anchor is an understanding between the two Governments and might not be caress by the people of Saudi. USA’s east anchor is Japan. As South Korea has many historical issues with Japan and also North Korea cuts South Korea off from main land, so, South Korea can’t be considered as main land anchor. West anchor is UK, using Germany as tie buoy is not good enough specially Germany and Japan both were on the other side during world war two, which brings back many memories to the mind of many country. Also we must keep in mind that, both the country might had to come to the kneeling position as both of them were on loosing side and so the people of these two country might explode some day as Germens exploded during thirties of last century. Though it is not very clear who is playing North Korea card but lets assume that USA is using China and North Korean threat card very well to keep Japan under the military protection of USA but this will not be enough to confirm USA hegemony on the Pacific, Atlantic and Indian Ocean. Since the alliance between US and Pakistan is not entirely clear and as US moving out from Afghan will create a vacuum in that region which might bring a huge opportunity for Pakistan to cooperate central Asian countries and act as lynchpin with in the regional connectivity for better economic prospects and peace provided Pakistan stabilizes inward firstly. So with a favorable Afghan Govt, Pakistan will become a major player in that region and so will certainly extend forward joining any direct alliance to any side. Thus only remaining countries down the line for the job are India, Srilanka, Bangladesh and Myanmar particularly referring to South, South East and EAST connectivity. China is present in Srilanka (Hambantota) and Myanmar (Sittwe) controlling even Malacca strait. So Bangladesh needs to look it with most favored options for the sake of regional prosperity and peace when the other regional powers particularly referring to undercutting attitude of the counties in the region. Does a geographical sovereignty brands a country as an independent country? What is freedom? Do whatever you like? As a free person in a country one can’t do whatever he likes, similarly an independent country in the world can’t do whatever she likes. The country has collective responsibility towards the world, towards the humanity. So, a free country should be that one which gives its citizens the freedom of thought. In that respect, USA could be said as free country but they also once imposed a ban on Communism thought. On the other hand, India is a country which never imposed any ban on any thought. It could be said that, India is the most democratic and free country of the world. Above all Indian old historical hubris phenomenon along side dreams of becoming Super power with 2nd largest population can off set the drawn strategic partnership. So, if US decide to anchor them in India, much chaotic voice will rise from within which will not serve the strategic purpose of USA and will need lots of effort to minimize their egoistic voices. Moreover, western powers trying to brand China as regional power and so they are posing to counter that regional power by projecting India as another regional power. India also seems to be happy with this dilemma. So, if USA anchors them in India, even this dilemma no longer will exist. Just like the attempt to take 125,000 sq km by Indian Armed forces in 1953 and 1959 from China, the 1962 war between the two or Indias meddling in the affairs inside Tibet is not going to be taken lightly by China, similar attitude may be taken by Srilanka towards India for sending Krishna Mission to the country in combating the Chinese presence there on the birthday of the deceased Tamil leader Provakaron. Also the joint military exercise in 2010 between India and the 7th Fleet of USA were a hard to accept by other regional powers and by the people of Bangladesh. Even though the 7th Fleet of the past is not the same as today and the presence of the fleet in 1971 was ultimately helpful to the independence of Bangladesh by some measure. Because of her presence the Pakistan army slowed their end game plan towards Dhaka waiting for help and when she left, they were demoralized and forced to surrender. Disputes between Bangladesh and India have taken a gummy road. Even after signing the so called TRANSIT deal, India is very slow to solve the Farakka conflict, Tin-bigha corridor, Chit-mahal enclave disputes and other such issues raising the question of their real intention. Sita was born in Nepal. So the relation between India and Nepal started way back when the Gods and Goddesss of Hindu religion roam the earth. Besides, in Nepal, the people living in the plains are considered more Indian-oriented. Still India had to accept the presence of USA in Nepal to counter Chinese presence in Nepal. Similarly, the battle between Ram and Raban linked India and Srilanka since the days of Gods. But when India stopped short of helping Srilanka to build its Hambantota port, China stepped forward and now USA is India’s only hope in stopping Chinese advances in that nation. And in other instances, the Indian government always labeled every Bangladeshi government as having unfriendly attitude towards India while Bangladeshis think of India as a friend. Still in reality China is involved with Bangladesh in more projects than India. Experts predict this trend will continue to grow with the building of Dhaka-Qunming Highway in the future, which will certainly increase the value of the Bangladesh conjunction point of two regions (East and South to Central Asia). While geographically almost the entire country is surrounded by India, seems as if Chinese influence in Bangladesh and further deep in Indian Ocean can only be checked not by India, but by US presence extending co operation in all fields to strengthening relations with Bangladesh where they have internal support also and will certainly make it viable for US to act as strong Anchor Based. The facts and ground realities are changing everyday; National economies everywhere are shattered. Europe is in financial crisis; Greece is facing an economic meltdown; and America, itself, the cradle of modern capitalism, is facing the Wall Street movement against “capitalistic order”. Even the nuclear science is advancing so fast that, it might not be very far when the gold based world economy will collapse all of a sudden in a fine morning. Nations are now confronted with domestic turbulence and political-economic unrest. It is because the Western strategic interests and the vested interests of the ruling elites in those countries are identical. Sub continental countries, especially India failing to realize the depth of its future danger (her all land and sea rout will be under strict supervision of other regional and world players) because of its past experienced non co operative hands towards neighborly countries and inherent internal weaknesses put question marks. She has to come out of the dilemma of regional super power and start co operating its neighbor with utmost capacity to build up integrated strength before taking any other strategic ventures. With this so many minus marks in the existing regional environments, It is imperative for USA to create an alternative strongly based Anchoring State too- may be, it seems obvious that USA will consolidate their strength in Bangladesh very soon and to achieve this, it could place 7th Fleet (or 14th fleet does not matter) that needs to be parked in Bay of Bengal. To utilize this fact for the best national interest of the entire sub continental states, we should redefine our foreign policy objectives and should reinvent diplomatic initiatives collectively. World has to understand strategic importance of Bangladesh and the attitude of its inhabitants. No other country can match that quality. It is unique in the world with 160 million people. It is the most densely populated country. Neither putting wall to separate the countries will solve the issues nor will a man made death valley do the magic. However, whether we like it or not, very soon world will utilize the geopolitical position and strategic importance of our country for realignments to foster peace and prosperity in this part of the world.
Posted on: Thu, 02 Oct 2014 06:56:13 +0000
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