Democrats Say They Surge While Republicans Actually Surge My FB news feed and e-mail are filled with messages from Democratic campaigns and supporters claiming that they are surging in the polls. Its even more than usual for this time, which I attribute to the supernatural power of social media in fostering the mass delusions of subcultures. Because, you see, it just isnt true. There is no Democratic surge. On the contrary there is every sign of a Republican wave that is stregthening, especially based on yesterdays round of polls of Senate races by both CNN and FOX which are in close agreement. And before you go attacking FOX News polls -- like CNN and other networks, FOX does not conduct its polls. It merely hires professional polling firms that apply standardized methodology. This new round of polls should be scary for Democrats. It shows the Alaska and Colorado races breaking strongly for Republicans, and Kansas tipping back toward the GOP also. It shows Kay Hagan in trouble in North Carolina, and Arkansas and Louisiana are gone for practical purposes. Moreover it shows Mitch McConnell maintaining a 4-point lead in Kentucky, contrary to the flaky outlier poll from SUSA on Monday that showed Grimes with a narrow lead. The SUSA poll used a bizarre methodology based on smart phone questionnaires, which obviously biased that poll toward young, urban, educated voters who do not dominate the electorate in Kentucky. If the election goes according to the recent round of polls, Republicans will dominate the Senate with something like a 53-seat majority. In a normal political environment, the kind of wave that is developing would be cause for major reassessment and reconfiguration by the party on the losing side, to head off disaster. But Democrats are now doing a good job of convincing themselves that they are winning, when they are not. Hence, they continue with the same tactics that have put them in a hole -- tactics like puerile partisan bashing and a studied avoidance of any mention of foreign policy. If Democrats were serious about keeping the Senate, they might try doing something different, and cutting out the wishful thinking. realclearpolitics/epolls/latest_polls/senate/
Posted on: Thu, 09 Oct 2014 14:07:03 +0000
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