Despite the fact that the atmosphere of the tropics is the more homogeneous and stable synoptically compared to the midlatitude, it is more difficult to predict storms in the Western Pacific basin where we are greatly affected by local events. The vast Pacific is the breeding place for most typhoons, and unfortunately the Philippines is the country that experiences the most number of cyclones. Why is it difficult to predict - largely because we only have satellite eyes on the vast Pacific. We dont have land-based radar out in the sea, we dont have reconnaissance planes. And prediction errors come from the initial conditions (especially identifying the location of the low level circulation center.) Also, as I posted before, smaller nearby, fast developing cyclones are harder to predict than larger, slow-developing ones. That said, although there has been low confidence in the forecast intensity of the cyclone, weve gotten a pretty good forecast from PAGASA and JTWC. Now batten down the hatches people, although Im not expecting this to be really bad for the Metro, be prepared and prepare hot champorado and tuyo for tomorrow morning.
Posted on: Tue, 15 Jul 2014 10:02:09 +0000
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