Dimitri Shashkini – “The Caspian Sea Monster”, C 300 and Iran Our region stands out for its potential geo-political threats that unfortunately can affect our sovereignty and independence a great deal. All our potential threats come from Russia but not all of them are connected to Akhazia and Tskhinvali regions. There are three more worst-case scenarios for our country and it is important to be ready for all possible scenarios and have relevant courses of action. The first geo-political problem is connected to Iran. Naturally, there is a possibility for military confrontation between Iran and Israel, which means that USA will back Israel militarily and thus the possibility of ground operations will increase. Therefore, if the military operations begin, they may be both – ground and air, which means deploying occupation contingent in Iran. If these circumstances occur, Russia will not limit itself by only making political statements, it will not stay passive and repeat Pristina scenario any more. In 2012 when the Iran problem became acute, they remembered the Stalin plan in Russia, which was created during World War II and was about Soviet Union occupying Northern Iran with the help of Taman Division. This plan existed for real and Russians were not hiding it; in case of its execution, Soviet Union would have been vulnerable from south. In 2012 Russia substantially reinforced its military base in Gyumri with the goal to check the accessibility of the mountain-pass connecting Armenia and Iran. They also tested if C 300 missiles could go through that pass. Certain maneuvers were supported by the infrastructure, which leaves no doubt that Russian General Staff are working on this scenario. How is this dangerous for Georgia? In order to implement the above-mentioned scenario, the resources of Gyumri base will not be enough to conduct this operation. In order to occupy the Northern Iran and create a buffer zone, at least 40-60 thousand troops are needed in the initial stage. It is impossible to do this by air and this is where Russia has two options: First one is to give Georgia an ultimatum and demand the corridor from us in order to deploy a military unit using Georgian territory to get to the Armenian border through Roki tunnel, passing Tskhinvali and Akhalgori entering Northern Iran through the pass or the second option is to go to Dagestan through Azerbaijan. At the same time, there is a possibility that Russia will use Caspian Fleet but here it faces the problem of insufficient resources and more threats. Although Russia started speeding up the “Caspian Sea Monster” (Ekranoplan) project but it will take at least 5-7 more years to finish it. Letting 40-60 thousand troops on the Georgian territory is absolutely unacceptable because it means an occupation of our country and losing our independence. This is not just one vehicle rolling on Georgia’s soil and disappearing in 2 hours, this scenario is the end of our independence. Despite of such catastrophic prognosis, it is possible to avoid it. It is important that we work with our partners ahead on any possible scenarios. We created certain security guarantees with our partners in 2012 but it is not finished yet and needs to continue. The second worst-case scenario is connected to possible escalation of tension between Azerbaijan and Armenia in Karabakh. Russia is our main problem in this situation too for it will not miss a chance to stand a foot in Karabakh and deploy military contingent as peacekeepers. In general, part of Russia’s new geo-politics is to intensify peacekeeping operations. For example, only a week ago Russia offered UN to replace Austrian contingent in Middle East. Similar to the first scenario, Georgia’s problem will be Russians demanding our territory as a corridor. The problems and threats are the same but in this case, Turkey will be an important player. According to the military specialists, Turkey will not confront Russia openly but will be an important partner for us not to let Russia demand this corridor. The third problem is Russia itself and Sochi Olympiads. In 2014 North Caucasian warriors will become more active and Russia will still blame Georgia for supporting terrorism. For this reason, Putin is asking to create an anti-terrorist center in Georgia. This cannot be done under any circumstances because by doing so, we will give Russia legal conditions for its actions and setting up a base in Georgia ourselves. All three scenarios are very dangerous for our country. Nevertheless, by planning properly and working with our Western partners, especially, with United States and Turkey, it is possible to face these threats and defend our country. It is important to remember though that you can only receive support from others when you take their advice and share their values.
Posted on: Sat, 22 Jun 2013 08:23:53 +0000
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