Divination and the rise of leaders in 2016 Divination has always been part of arising leaders. Biblical history cited divination of leadership since King David was a young shepherd, with diviners and anointed leaders dancing in the streets. In today’s political landscape, sophisticated algorithms and advanced ICT tools drive divination of leaders. With impending 2016 Election, Pinoys will see not a few diviners foretelling who will lead the Philippine transformation. Already there are differing results from traditional surveys, which canvass voting preferences using demographic weighting targets for affordable levels of sampling. Analysing social media data provides another interesting forecast of leadership. Varying results shown by summary tables attached, extracted from recent 2016 Election pre-polls. Although not entirely prohibited, some jurisdictions over the world restrict the publication of the results of opinion polls closer to election date, in order to prevent the possibly erroneous results from affecting voters decisions. Current literature asserts that pre-polls are actually a device for influencing public opinion. Scholars have two main theories about how this influencing happens, namely: bandwagon/underdog effects and strategic (tactical) voting. Much empirical evidence shows voters are susceptible to voting candidates shown to lead in opinion polls, or a bandwagon effect popularized by Puck magazine’s cartoon in 1884. Although lesser evidence, there are particular cultures that favor underdogs, where undecided voters casting sympathy vote at the last minute. As costs of ICT tools declining, people increasingly become informed and sophisticated voters. People are aware that voting means locking themselves to political leaders for a fixed number of years. They consider a wide range of information to ensure selecting leaders who can best deliver their expectations over many years. They now vote with a purpose, based on their political persuasion or a tactical response to corrupt Government of the day. Candidates themselves use opinion polls for strategic and tactical reasons. They adjust their game on the ground using analytics and up-to-date survey findings. Forecasting their likely voters and ultimately gathering them at the polling booths demand solid thinking, because campaign costs could rack up Peso 250 million for a national office.
Posted on: Fri, 02 Jan 2015 03:40:31 +0000
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