EARLY SUN MORNING: I have looked all of the latest data over.....looked back over some previous freezing rain events....and come up with a BEST GUESS as to where will see what. Freezing rain events are very hard to pinpoint. It literally becomes WHAT IS HAPPENING....NOW and where are precip bands moving at that moment in time. It becomes a NOWCAST or CURRENT ASSESSMENT situation. In reality, my map will likely NOT be totally right....but the TRENDS look decent right now. First off.....as mentioned earlier.....many of us will be VERY CLOSE to that magic temperature number of 32 when precip starts and more than likely for the duration of the event. 1-2 degrees shifting (up or down) will blow this whole forecast out the door. Where precip shield tracks....where the energy tracks.....ALL SO SO SO CRITICAL. There just is no way to be highly confident even 12-15 hours in advance of the system. Because it will be warmer just a few thousand feet above the surface....precip will fall as snow....melt and not likely have a chance to refreeze before hitting surfaces that are at or below freezing. Thus, freezing rain. If the temperature profiles change in this layer of warmer air, we could see a change over to sleet.....snow.....or rain!!! Because this warmer air aloft is coming from the SOUTH.....history of freezing rain events tends to push the area of freezing rain NORTH. This is why my map looks differently than my explanation did last night. I think the area of frozen precip WILL BE NORTH of even where the current advisories are in place. BASED ON CURRENT GUDIANCE....here goes...... Southern Indiana.....I think you start off with a period of snow/sleet changing to freezing rain....AND THEN RAIN. I believe that if you live south of a Terre Haute to Rushville line.....you see really no icing issues. North of that Terre Haute to Rushville line......to a line from roughly Lafayette to Hartford City....in that area....you stand the best chance for seeing ACCUMULATING ICE on the order of 1/10 to 2/10 of an inch. Just below ICE STORM WARNING CRITERIA. You could also see some snow and sleet mixing in. SOMEWHERE in that zone.....there will be a 30 mile or so wide band of heavier FZR. My best guess right now.....is from the south side of Indianapolis to Anderson.....including Crawfordsville, New Castle, Lebanon....could see 1/4 to 3/10 of an inch of ice. THIS WOULD MEET ICE STORM WARNING CRITERIA. At this time.....this would be my bullseye for ice. North of a rough Lafayette to Marion line....you could see between 2-3 inches of snow....with sleet mixing in. If more sleet mixes in....you may see 1 or so of snow. My confidence isnt terribly high on these areas seeing a consistent snowfall.....it could mix in more....it also could cut off pretty sharply as you move north. These areas may SHIFT SOME....NORTH OR SOUTH! The exact locations cant be pinpointed yet...and wont be able to be until it is actually happening. Winds will also be gusty on Monday - over 20 mph. NO MATTER WHAT HAPPENS.....THIS IS NOT GOING TO BE A HUGE HUGE ICE STORM! It will meet the minimum criteria levels needed for a Warning....and that area will be narrow. However, we ALL know that it doesnt take a great deal of ice to cause major problems on the roadways and with power lines. Anytime a Freezing Rain ADV or Ice Storm Warning would be issued....it is serious business. I will attempt to keep you updated on Sunday. Sadly, I work on Sunday....but I will be able to provide updates as best as I can. Remember.....THIS WILL BE A VERY FLUID SITUATION! WE ALL NEED TO BE AWARE of the latest!!!
Posted on: Sun, 11 Jan 2015 06:41:07 +0000
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