ECMWF extended ensembles are going for a slight change in the pattern, transferring the main energy upstream towards S Greenland and Canada, which translates to a west positive NAO. Over Europe, the Azores ridge can slightly expand, with a split flow towards eastern Europe. This pattern is potent for more cold shots in North America, while over Europe it features milder conditions with some storminess over the central and east Mediterranean region. The main difference from the current pattern, is that it is generally less prone for deep cyclones impacting the British Isles, as we have seen so far this winter. This is a mean of 51 ensemble members so some details of the pattern get lost in the average. Source: WxBell
Posted on: Sun, 23 Feb 2014 14:00:01 +0000