ENSO Wrap-Up Both tropical Pacific and Indian oceans neutral The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has remained neutral since mid-2012. Most indicators of ENSO are at near-average levels, though some atmospheric indicators, such as the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and cloudiness near the Date Line, have fluctuated over recent months. This is fairly typical of neutral ENSO periods. International climate models surveyed by the Bureau of Meteorology suggest that the tropical Pacific will remain ENSO-neutral for the remainder of spring and the austral summer. This year has seen a negative Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) event, which contributed to above average rainfall across large parts of southern Australia during late autumn and winter. The event decayed during August. The majority of international climate models indicate the IOD will remain neutral for the remainder of 2013. Next update expected on 8 October 2013 Monthly sea surface temperatures: The sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly map for August 2013 shows cool SST anomalies across the eastern tropical Pacific and along the Peruvian coast. This pattern is generally similar to that of the previous month, although cool anomalies have become stronger along the equator and those along the South American coast have become weaker. Warm anomalies persist across the Maritime Continent, South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ) and along Australia’s southern coastline, although those around the Maritime Continent have weakened. SST anomalies are near-average across the central tropical Pacific. Baseline period 1961–1990. Index July August Temperature change NINO3 −0.3 −0.4 0.1 °C cooler NINO3.4 −0.1 −0.2 0.1 °C cooler NINO4 +0.2 +0.3 0.1 °C warmer Click to see full-size map showing monthly temperatures in the tropical Pacific. Weekly sea surface temperatures: Sea surface temperature anomalies across the tropical Pacific generally remain similar to those of a fortnight ago, with all three NINO indices close to zero. The anomaly map for the week ending 22 September 2013 shows small areas of weak cool anomalies remain in the eastern Pacific along and south of the equator. Small areas of warm SST anomalies have now appeared in the eastern Pacific. Warm anomalies also remain in the western Pacific and around the SPCZ, though areas in the west have seen these anomalies reduce over the last two weeks. Most of surface waters of the central equatorial Pacific are near average temperatures for this time of year. Baseline period 1961–1990. Index Previous Current Temperature change (2 weeks) NINO3 −0.2 +0.1 0.3 °C warmer NINO3.4 +0.1 0.0 0.1 °C cooler NINO4 +0.5 +0.1 0.4 °C cooler World Meteorological Organization El Niño/La Niña Update Tropical (MJO) Monitoring Impact on Rainfall Average El Niño patterns Average La Niña patterns Past El Niño events Past La Niña events Climate links Out-going Longwave Radiation maps TAO/TRITON data Weekly Tropical Climate Note Sea Temperature Analysis Climate collapse Seasonal outlooks menuSeasonal outlooks Rainfall outlook Temperature outlook El Niño / La Niña Streamflow outlooks Tropical cyclone outlook Climate model summary expand Reports & summaries menuReports & summaries expand Weather & climate data menuWeather & climate data expand Maps - recent conditions menuMaps - recent conditions expand Maps - average conditions menuMaps - average conditions expand Climate change menuClimate change expand Extremes of climate menuExtremes of climate About Australian climate
Posted on: Sat, 28 Sep 2013 04:19:34 +0000
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