ENSO remains neutral as negative IOD weakens Issued on Tuesday 27 - TopicsExpress

ENSO remains neutral as negative IOD weakens Issued on Tuesday 27 August 2013 | Product Code IDCKGEWWOO The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has remained neutral since mid-2012. While most indicators have clearly remained neutral over recent months, the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) has at times approached La Niña levels. It has now returned to neutral values. Climate models surveyed by the Bureau of Meteorology suggest the tropical Pacific will remain ENSO-neutral for the rest of the year. Only one of the seven models surveyed suggests a brief period of La Niña-like cooling of the tropical Pacific. The negative Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) has weakened over recent weeks, with latest values of the index in the neutral range. If neutral IOD values persist to mid-September, the 2013 negative IOD event will be considered to have ended. Climate models are mixed, with some suggesting neutral IOD values for the months ahead, and some indicating negative IOD values may persist until at least mid-spring. Negative IOD events during winter–spring are associated with above-average rainfall over southern Australia, and increased humidity over parts of northern Australia. A negative IOD can also contribute to below-average mean sea level pressure (MSLP) over Darwin, which may in turn raise the value of the SOI. Next update expected on 10 September 2013 |

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