ERCOT Cash – well Robert and Phil each owe 100 push-ups as they suspected yesterday would clear greater than $49.00 – WRONG. ERCOT is just well supplied at 63 gigs of load – even with weak wind generation – this is evident again today…Unless we build greater than 66-68 gigs of load, I suspect NO volatility. I think the Texas drought is over too (kindof)… PJM Cash – 91 in Baltimore and 74 in Chi-Town – clearly cross RTO congestion with EAST and WEST Hub getting the most upside, especially on the super freak hours…APS interface is slightly derated which is intensifying the congestion. ERCOT Forwards – more the same – quiet. Some interest in wraps and Houston/North Basis – but not much else. Cal 15: 11.35, Cal 16: 11.39., Cal 17: 11.35. Someone call Trey and make him busy… and Matt too… PJM Forwards – still heavy – curves have deflated. With summer prices mild – forwards tend to sink as the risk perception fades…. NG – Tomorrow EIA DAY!!! Best day of the WEEK!!!!!! Expectations are upper 90s to low 100s Injection – gonna build against last year and the 5 year – as we typically build around 45 Bcf – hence NG weakness. There’s nothing exciting about Natural right now… building storage quickly. CL – larger than expected withdrawal buoyed prices today – trading over $103. However, gasoline inventories climbed more than 3x of expectations… Economy and Stocks and Stuff – Another new record SP500 close – hip hip hooray!! Driven by strong earnings report. This distracted traders from tensions in Ukraine and the Middle East. Noted today in the WSJ, “…The S&P 500 is trading at 15.7 times its expected earnings for the next year, above its 10-year average of 13.9.” What can I say, the proof is in the pudding…or is it…read this from the same WSJ article…”Microsoft added 0.1% after adjusted earnings beat Wall Street forecasts, though results left out items including a $700 million hit from the mobile-phone business it recently acquired from Nokia.” $700m hit left out – so therefore they beat Wall Street forecast - check the box and keep moving on… BITCOIN - $612 NG – $3.763 Crude - $103.16 SP500 – 1987.01 (1987 the year of Black Monday) US 10-Yr – 2.468 Gold – 1306.70 **near market close
Posted on: Thu, 24 Jul 2014 15:26:50 +0000
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