Ecohealth. 2014 Oct 4. [Epub ahead of print] Disease Risk in a Dynamic Environment: The Spread of Tick-Borne Pathogens in Minnesota, USA. Robinson SJ1, Neitzel DF, Moen RA, Craft ME, Hamilton KE, Johnson LB, Mulla DJ, Munderloh UG, Redig PT, Smith KE, Turner CL, Umber JK, Pelican KM. Author information Abstract As humans and climate change alter the landscape, novel disease risk scenarios emerge. Understanding the complexities of pathogen emergence and subsequent spread as shaped by landscape heterogeneity is crucial to understanding disease emergence, pinpointing high-risk areas, and mitigating emerging disease threats in a dynamic environment. Tick-borne diseases present an important public health concern and incidence of many of these diseases are increasing in the United States. The complex epidemiology of tick-borne diseases includes strong ties with environmental factors that influence host availability, vector abundance, and pathogen transmission. Here, we used 16 years of case data from the Minnesota Department of Health to report spatial and temporal trends in Lyme disease (LD), human anaplasmosis, and babesiosis. We then used a spatial regression framework to evaluate the impact of landscape and climate factors on the spread of LD. Finally, we use the fitted model, and landscape and climate datasets projected under varying climate change scenarios, to predict future changes in tick-borne pathogen risk. Both forested habitat and temperature were important drivers of LD spread in Minnesota. Dramatic changes in future temperature regimes and forest communities predict rising risk of tick-borne disease. ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/25281302 + FULL ECO HEALTH REPORT 2014: VERY INTERESTING!! August 11-15, 2014, Université du Québec à Montréal, Canada Co-hosted by Cinbiose and CoPEH-Canada The 5th Biennial Conference of the International Association for Ecology and Health ecohealth2014.uqam.ca/upload/files/Abstract_Book_EcoHealth2014.pdf
Posted on: Mon, 06 Oct 2014 10:52:49 +0000
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