Ekiti, Osun elections as test run for 2015 elections Omisore and Aregbesola In this piece, OLUSOLA FABIYI examines how the governorship elections in both Ekiti and Osun states may reflect where the pendulum would swing in the 2015 elections No date has been fixed for the 2015 general elections but the entire leadership of the Independent National Electoral Commission is already feeling the heat. The National Chairman of the electoral body, Prof. Attahiru Jega, must also be worried with the seemingly lack of confidence of some politicians and Nigerians in the ability of his commission to conduct free and fair elections in the country anymore. No thanks to the outcome of the November 16, 2013 Anambra governorship election, which must have also worried Jega. Its result and preparation, which made the election to be postponed in some areas in the state, was the source of concern to many Nigerians, especially those from the opposition political parties. Jega admitted that the commission could have been sabotaged based on the attitudes of some of its employees. Nigerians, especially those in the newly registered All Progressives Congress, were baffled that despite enormous resources and time available to the commission, it was unable to conduct an acceptable election in just one state. Jega’s claim of sabotage on the part of some of his staff was described as “unacceptable” by a large number of people. Irrespective of the excuses of those at the helm of affairs of the commission, the winner of the election as announced, Mr. Willie Obiano, who was the candidate of the All Progressive Grand Alliance, is still savouring his victory. His main two opponents, Mr. Tony Nwoye and Senator Chris Ngige of the Peoples Democratic Party and the APC respectively, are however, in court, asking questions about the validity of the election. Now, INEC’s train will move from the South-East to the South-West, where elections are to be held in Ekiti and Osun states this year. The credibility problem suffered by the commission in Anambra is already creating ripples in the two affected states. Governor Rauf Aregbesola of Osun State and the APC in the state have said that the Jega–led commission could not be trusted to conduct credible polls in Osun and Ekiti states in 2014, going by the way the electoral body performed in Anambra State. Aregbesola also accused the Federal Government and the INEC of planning to rig the governorship elections to be held in the two states this year. Aregbesola and state the chairman of the party, Adelowo Adebiyi, said that Jega could not be trusted to conduct subsequent elections in the country since he had failed woefully to conduct a credible poll in just one state. Aregbesola said, “It is significantly illogical for Jega’s INEC to argue that the magnitude of the infractions at the last election in Anambra was not sufficient to cancel the election outright. We cannot trust a body with such illogical thinking to do a good job of the next election especially because even the basis of that process – which is the voters register – had been mysteriously mutilated so massively that a considerable number of voters could not find their names on a register that had contained their names at the verification process.” Adebiyi also said that Jega had demonstrated gross incompetence to conduct credible election.He said that “the shameful conduct” of the INEC in the inconclusive Anambra State governorship election was a pointer to what should be expected from the electoral body in the coming governorship polls in Ekiti and Osun states. Indeed, the Anambra State governorship election is widely believed to have gone down as the worst election conducted under the present INEC management, following the discrepancies that trailed the elections. INEC’s criticism is not limited to the politicians alone. Even the Nigerian Bar Association has expressed doubts over the ability of the INEC to conduct credible election in 2015. In a communiqué at the end of its National Executive Committee meeting in Nasarawa State, the NBA described the governorship election in Anambra State as embarrassing and unacceptable. NBA President, Okey Wali, SAN, who read the communiqué said, , “The inconclusiveness of the said elections and the serious operational and logistical challenges that gave rise to the supplementary elections have created serious doubts in the minds of Nigerians regarding the preparedness of the Independent National Electoral Commission to conduct acceptable elections in 2015. The NBA views as very embarrassing and unacceptable the inconclusiveness of the Anambra State governorship election, occasioned by operational and logistic challenges in an election supervised by six national commissioners, 15 Resident Electoral Commissioners and a galaxy of permanent staff from the contiguous states.” Jega, a former President of the Academic Staff Union of Universities, said the commission had learnt its lessons from the Anambra election. He has already told his 37 resident electoral commissioners that the conduct of the governorship elections in both Ekiti and Osun states would be a catalyst for the conduct of the 2015 general elections, adding that the lessons learnt from the recent Anambra State governorship election will be factored into the preparation for subsequent elections. Jega also insisted that the Anambra election met the minimum standard. He said, “The lessons we have learnt from Anambra election have to be factored into our preparation for 2015 general elections. I want to use this opportunity to commend all the RECs and staff in the states to ensure that we are one as we prepare towards the 2015 general elections. “As we are all aware, we are moving towards the last lap of our work and preparation in the next one month or so as we prepare for the 2015 general election. May I use this opportunity therefore to ask all of us to contribute our best as we prepare for that election. Of course there will be two other governorship elections Ekiti and Osun states, before we go into the poll. “The challenge for us is to ensure that we make the two governorship elections a test case in terms of remarkable improvement before the 2015 general elections. Obviously, all the lessons we have learnt from Anambra and all the efforts that we have been making to make 2015 successful and credible election, I will have to also ensure that they are factored into our preparation for the 2015 general election.” The claim by the commission that it might not conduct elections in Borno, Yobe and Adamawa States due to the state of emergency in the affected states, is also being seen by the opposition as another way to rig the election in favour of the ruling party. But the commission has explained that it has not ruled out holding of election in the three APC-controlled states, saying that it hopes security situation in the affected states would have improved. As Jega’s INEC prepares for the elections, so are politicians making frantic efforts aimed at winning at the oncoming polls. While political alignments are ongoing, defections from one political party to the other is also gaining ground among members of various political parties. For example, a member of the Action Congress of Nigeria, which was one of the three political parties that merged to form the APC, and a member of the House of Representatives, Mr. Opeyemi Bamidele, has joined the Labour Party. Bamidele, a political son of a former Governor of Lagos State, Asiwaju Bola Tinubu, has vowed to unseat the incumbent governor of the state, Dr. Kayode Fayemi. There are unconfirmed rumours that Bamidele may later enjoy the support of the PDP and the Presidency to realise his ambition, which Fayemi has described as inordinate. LP is believed to be one of other two political parties that President Goodluck Jonathan is supporting, with the hope that the party and APGA, would support his 2015 second term ambition. Indeed, this was one of the numerous allegations levelled against the President by former President Olusegun Obasanjo in his letter to Jonathan. In the letter, Obasanjo told the President that “As Chairman of BOT, I spoke to you at that time. It happened in Ondo State where there was, in addition, evidence of cover-up and non- prosecution of fake security report against the non-PDP candidate and his collaborators for the purpose of extracting personal electoral advantage for you. In fact, I have raised with you the story of those in other states in the South-West where some disgruntled PDP members were going around to recruit people into the Labour Party for you. For electoral purpose at the national level, Labour Party will have no candidate but you. Ditto in Anambra State with the fiasco coming from undue interference.” Either true or not, as the President is recruiting, so is his party being depleted by the opposition. In one swell swoop, the PDP lost five of its governors to the main opposition party, the APC. The governors, who have decided to leave the shield provided by the PDP umbrella are the Governor of Rivers State, Mr. Rotimi Amaechi; Governor of Sokoto State, Alhaji Aliyu Wamakko; Governor Abdulfatah Ahmed of Kwara State, Governor Rabiu Kwankwanso of Kano State and Governor Murtala Nyako of Adamawa State. In addition to this, 37 members of the party in the House of Representatives have also joined the APC. Some senators are also said to be waiting for the “right time” before announcing their defection. This and other internal issues have almost taken the shine off the ruling party. Human traffic to the party’s national headquarters had reduced. Kwankwanso and Amaechi said the time is up for the PDP and that gone were the days when the party won elections with ease. The Rivers State governor described the PDP as a “drowning party” while his Kano State counterpart, asked Nigerians to reject the PDP at the poll, saying there is no way the party could win a national election in the country anymore. But the party and the Presidency feel otherwise. The National Publicity Secretary of the party, Chief Olisa Metuh, assured the two governors that 2015 would show the popularity of the party. He said, “I find it difficult and painful to react to this because these were formidable members of our party that had benefited immensely from the party,” and that such attacks should not have come from them. The Presidency, on the other hand, described the claim by the two governors as wishful thinking. The Special Adviser to the President on Political Matters, Mr. Ahmed Gulak, said contrary to the governors’ claim, the PDP would win convincingly in the forthcoming election and again form the Federal Government. He described the APC as a a party of strange fellows, adding that the party had started experiencing crisis in some states. Before the politicians are fully engaged in battle of electoral supremacy, the electoral umpire has proposed to spend at least, $7.9 on each of the 73.5m electorate captured in its register which would be used for the 2015 general elections in the country. The total amount was estimated at N93bn. Jega, who said that the election might be conducted either in January or latest, early February 2015, said, “Our estimate is that the cost of election per voter, which is an international standard for viewing the cost of elections, is coming down in Nigeria. We project that for the 2015 elections, this would come further down by almost $1 from $8.8 in 2011 to $7.9, representing almost a 10 per cent drop. This compares favourably with some other African countries. However, we are anxious about getting all our funding requirements being met well in advance of the 2015 general elections.” Out of the amount needed, the Federal Government allocated N45bn in 2014 budget to enable the commission prepare for the 2015 general elections. The allocation to INEC was N13bn higher than the 2013 budget of N32bn. A chieftain of the APC, Chief Osita Okechukwu, has however advised the commission to fully pay attention to the elections in both Ekiti and Osun states, adding that “the conduct of the two elections will largely tell on how the 2015 general elections would look like.”
Posted on: Tue, 29 Jul 2014 12:19:37 +0000
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