Excellent analysis: The biggest weakness in Obamas coalition is its Arab members, all of whom are autocratic and paternalistic states that share several embarrassing traits: They are reluctant to use their formidable military arsenals in the fight against ISIS, either from political fear or technical weaknesses; They face strong problems with their own public opinions at home that are very dubious about partnering with the American military; Their own mistreatment of some of their prisoners in their jails incubated the birth of Al-Qaeda in the 1980s; Their sustained mismanagement of social, economic and political development in the past 40 years was the leading contributor to the mass grievances that sparked large-scale Islamism and emigration from the 1970s, the retreat of the state from some quarters of society, and the birth of militias, tribal groupings, and criminal gangs as powerful new actors in society. JAILS PRODUCE JIHADISTS. The jails of Sunni-majority Arab regimes represent an important aspect of the mistreatment and humiliation that many prisoners experienced, especially those jailed for their political views rather than crimes. Their jail experiences ultimately convinced them to fight to topple their regimes as part of Al-Qaedas aim to purify Islamic lands from apostate and corrupt leaderships...Arab autocracy continues to define and plague the region as a driver of homegrown Arab radicalism and terrorism... When this is combined with foreign military interventions, the ugly result is always the creation of zones of chaos, where three bad things happen: 1) Central governments retreat, weaken and become more corrupt and ineffective; 2) National identity and authority find themselves replaced by armed sub-national forces based on family, tribe, sect or ethnicity; 3) Civil political contestation and state-building give way to armed clashes by sectarian and tribal militias and militant groups that ultimately carve out their own fiefs. LONG-TERM STATE BUILDING IS THE ONLY ANSWER. Fighter jets and jails are the problem that shattered the modern Arab world, and they cannot be its solution...There is only one longer term antidote to the current dangers, which is a slow process of more coherent state-building that is participatory, equitable and sustainable...American and European attempts to foster this noble goal in Afghanistan, Iraq, Yemen, Libya, Egypt and other lands have all failed, because they never seriously engaged the local citizens as equal stakeholders in their own nationhood and socio-economic well-being.
Posted on: Tue, 16 Sep 2014 02:23:52 +0000
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