FACTS HAVE CHANGED By Azizus Samad Azad “The facts have changed, now we must change too.”- George Monbiot Late Abdus Samad Azad used to say that Bangladesh would be the most beneficiary if The Seven Sisters of India ever became a loose Confederation with Bangladesh. Needless to say it takes carouse to say such things. Bangladesh can make a bold move by starting arrival visa service available for Indians crossing that boarder. Did Bangladesh signed the Transit deal only with India or is USA also part of the deal? Why the TIFA deal has not been signed? Is Transit-TIFA going to benefit Bangladesh? Because of its strategic position, Bangladesh is trying to play a larger role in the affairs of he Indian subcontinent. Hence other sub continental countries have lot to do, so that cross border nationalism does not disturb the status-quo? If one assumes that the US had no less enthusiasm in establishing The EU, then Germany was USAs best friend in the Union and its locomotive. Even though many members of the Union were skeptical about Germany because of their past experience in the 2nd World War, US influence mostly took care of that problem. Though France had the intent to run the Union in its won shade, but was never fully successful in the face of the combined military and economic power of US and Germany till today and possibly for the foreseeable future. Because of its historical stand, the island nation of Great Britten is playing its role as if it is the Unions united-states. In Europe, Great Britten and USA is playing a very similar role. Things have come to a point where what US wishes becomes EUs future. There is a saying that he who rules the ocean, rules the world. History stands testimony to this phrase. Only Mongols established an empire based on land, even though some historians label it as regional power. Besides, those historical super powers almost never reached the border of another similar power to appear as the ultimate super power. Only USA gained that status after the demise of the former Soviet Union. As the only remaining super power, US have been labeled as a Hyper-Power by some. At present, no nation is able to challenge its military might and USA is working hard to keep its hegemony status. For the sake of world peace or using this as an excuse, the US has assumed the role of world-police. And we should not be surprised if US is trying to do so through the use of NATO and other treaties. Even in a peaceful world the oceans are the source of vital energy such as oil and gas and the arteries of trade and commerce. So it is obvious that US would try to gain supremacy over not only the Atlantic through NATO but also over the Indian Ocean and the Pacific by applying every source available. The coordinated role of Russia and China in the present Syrian crisis is no coincidence but should be considered as a vital pivoting test case. If they succeed in their policy, then a little shift in foreign policy by Iran and Turkey (Turkey is facing many internal challenges and also trying hard to find their identity, i.e. whether they are European or Asian) and the unification of North and South Korea would create a sphere that US strategic machine would find hard to bring under its control and US may even find it hard to maintain control over places such as Lake Baikal, The Caspian Sea, The Mediterranean, Baltic Sea, Black Sea and Strait of Hormuz, all of which are the routes and arteries of vital trade and energy, namely oil and gas. All big powers know that war will destroy their nation without solving their problems. So maintaining status-quo is their primary policy. The war of tomorrow is the war of business and economic dominance. Playing war-games is acceptable in the name of joint military exercise as long as there is no smell of gun powder in the air. Even though the far eastern nations such as Japan and South Korea are still under US influence, the ever increasing Chinese influence in the region will bring that under question. 2014 may bring US out from the trap of Afghanistan, but she will need a friend like Great Britten in Europe to manage her affairs in the region of Indian Ocean. It is not enough to control the region through an US influenced alliance between Japan, South Korea, Thailand and a base in Diego Garcia. Other than Saudi Arabia, all USA anchors are island based; Even Saudi anchor is an understanding between the two Governments and might not be caress by the people of Saudi. USA’s east anchor is Japan. As South Korea has many historical issues with Japan and also North Korea cuts South Korea off from main land, so, South Korea can’t be considered as main land anchor. West anchor is UK, using Germany as tie buoy is not good enough specially Germany and Japan both were on the other side during world war two, which brings back many memories to the mind of many country. Also we must keep in mind that, both the country might had to come to the kneeling position as both of them were in loosing side and so the people of these two country might explode some day as Germens exploded as they were kneeled after first world war. Though USA is using China and North Korean threat card very well to keep Japan under the military protection of USA but this will not confirm USA hegemony on the Pacific, Atlantic and Indian Ocean. Since the alliance between US and Pakistan is not entirely clear and as US moving out from Afghan will create a vacuum in that region and that vacuum might bring a huge opportunity for Pakistan to cooperate central Asian countries, so with a favorable Afghan Govt, Pakistan will become a major player in that region and so will not be bothered about joining any direct alliance, thus only remaining countries for the job are India, Srilanka, Bangladesh and Myanmar. China is present in Srilanka (Hambantota) and Myanmar (Sittwe) which will even control Malacca strait. So urgently needed solution are two. Just like the attempt to take 125,000 sq km by Indian Armed forces in 1953 and 1959 from China, the 1962 war between the two or Indias meddling in the affairs inside Tibet is not going to be taken lightly by China, similar attitude may be taken by Srilanka towards India for sending Krishna Mission to the country in combating the Chinese presence there on the birthday of the deceased Tamil leader Provakaron. Also the joint military exercise in 2010 between India and the 7th Fleet of USA may bring back old memories for Bangladesh. Even though the 7th Fleet of the past is not the same as today and the presence of the fleet in 1971 was ultimately helpful to the independence of Bangladesh by some measure. Because of her presence the Pakistan army slowed their end game plan towards Dhaka waiting for help and when she left, they were demoralized and forced to surrender. Disputes between Bangladesh and India have taken a gummy road. Even after signing the so called TRANSIT deal, India is very slow to solve the Farakka conflict, Tin-bigha corridor, Chit-mahal enclave disputes and other such issues raising the question of their real intention. World has to understand Bangladesh and the attitude of its inhabitants. No other country can match that quality. It is unique in the world with 160 million people. World’s most densely populated country. Neither putting wall to separate the country from the world will solve the issues nor will a man made death valley do the trick. World must utilize the geopolitical position of the country to solve geostrategic issues of the region and the world. Sita was born in Nepal. So the relation between India and Nepal started way back when the Gods and Goddesss of Hindu religion roam the earth. Besides, in Nepal, the people living in the plains are considered more Indian-oriented. Still India had to accept the presence of USA in Nepal to counter Chinese presence in Nepal. Similarly, the battle between Ram and Raban linked India and Srilanka since the days of Gods. But when India stopped short of helping Srilanka to build its Hambantota port, China stepped forward and now USA is India’s only hope in stopping Chinese advances in that nation. Does a geographical sovereignty brands a country as a independent country? What is freedom? Do whatever you like? As a free person in a country one can’t do whatever he likes, similarly an independent country in the world can’t do whatever she likes. The country has collective responsibility towards the world, towards the humanity. So, a free country should be that one which gives its citizen the freedom of thought. In that respect, USA could be said as free country but they also once imposed a ban on Communism thought. On the other hand, India is a country which never imposed any ban on any thought. It could be said that, India is the most democratic and free country of the world. So, if US decide to anchor them in India, much chaotic voice will rise from within which will not serve the strategic purpose of USA and will need lots of effort to minimize that voices. Moreover, western powers trying to brand China as regional power and so they are posing to counter that regional power by projecting India as another regional power. India also seems to be happy with this dilemma. So, if USA anchors them in India, even this dilemma no longer will exist. And in other instances, the Indian government always labeled every Bangladeshi government as having unfriendly attitude towards India while Bangladeshis think of India as a friend. Still in reality China is involved with Bangladesh in more projects than India. Experts predict this trend will continue to grow with the building of Dhaka - Qunming Highway in the future. While geographically almost the entire country is surrounded by India, seems as if Chinese influence in Bangladesh can only be neutralized not by India, but by US intervention. If India fails to realize the depth of its future danger as her all land and sea rout will be under strict supervision of other regional and world players and stop acting like a regional super power and start cooperating its neighbor with their utmost capacity, USA will consolidate their strength in Bangladesh very soon. And to achieve this, it may very well be the 7th Fleet (or 14th fleet does not matter) that needs to be parked in Bay of Bengal.
Posted on: Tue, 30 Sep 2014 08:13:03 +0000
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