FB Friends---Sharing my paper on Kashmir Floods the paper presented in a seminar in Institute of Spatial Planning & Environmental Research at Punchkula, Chandigarh: JK Deluge 2014: JK deluge of September 2014 was no doubt a natural disaster; however it was compounded by human follies that had a multiplier effect in terms of the losses suffered in structure and stocks. Religious Lore: That Kashmir has suffered losses due to floods down the historical epochs is a known fact. That the valley was inundated totally in ancient ages has a religious lore to it, when the valley was a huge lake called Satisar. And as ordained by gods, the water got drained by a mountainous breach in the northern reaches; the lake was thus cleared of the demons seeking refuge in deep waters of the lake. Recent Historical Past: 1893 was the first flood, when water levels were recorded at Sher Ghari, the royal seat of administration of Dogra Maharajas of Kashmir. Floods followed with amazing regularity in 1900, 1902 and 1905. Alarmed Dogra Shahi administration consulted British engineers and a flood channel got devised with a carrying capacity of 20,000 cusecs. Flood channel: Srinagar flood channel was devised to carry the Jhelum bulge to three water outlets in the suburbs of Srinagar--renowned wetlands of Nadru Nambal, Narkara Nambal and Hokarsar towards the north of the city. These outlets would take Jhelum bulge to what was Asia’s largest lake—Wular. The wide bosomed lake would absorb the bulge. That was the tale of bygone days. Like Dal Lake in Srinagar city, this lake is dotted with residential colonies. The Jhelum, it may be noted originates from South down to Srinagar city and from the north of the valley, it crosses to Pakistan administered Kashmir. Cyclical Theory: In 2010 Taj Mohi-ud-Din--PHE/Irrigation/Flood Control Minister related the cyclical effect of floods occurring more or less every 50 years. In support of his contention, he linked late fifties—1957/59 floods following 1900, 1902 and 1905 floods. This cannot be scientifically substantiated. However, the minister took the plea, perhaps to press for early release of central assistance. He put in a plea for 2200 crore assistance, with 500 crores to be released immediately. Only 97 crores were released, the funds were used for de-silting the flood channel. The channel laid down in early 20th century had a carrying capacity of 20, 000 cusecs, which has now shrunk to 4000 cusecs, as a result of marked deficits in planning, however first we may take up, what shaped the minister’s plea. Flood Control Department Report: Minister’s plea was based on the report of flood control department on his desk. The report related that, “We are expecting a water discharge of around 150000 cusses if flood hits Srinagar city, leaving most parts of the city submerged”, a senior official of the flood control department revealed in 2010. It is not only the city of Srinagar that faces the danger, but most parts of the valley from south to north Kashmir are likely to be hit by the flood. And it may go beyond, as the warning reveals, washing the national highway. Submerging of IG road leading to airport may hinder the aerial access to the Valley as well. It happened exactly as predicted. In response to the departmental report on his desk, minister Taj Mohi-ud-Din stated, “I am conscious and concerned about the threat but have no resources to correct the wrongs done in the past” so said the minister to a local daily, thereby admitting gross negligence. He recounted steps taken by Sheikh Abdullah government in 1950. “A dredger was imported by the government of India and handed over to the state in 1950; the importance of the machine for the then state government could be gauged from the fact that it was commissioned by Nehru himself in Srinagar”. Some areas of the city, including Rajbagh, were submerged, but no loss of life or property was reported due to the fact that the state was ready for the calamity and was regularly de-silting the flood channels and outflow channels. Deficit Planning/Human Follies over last 50 years: Kashmir suffers the worst, due to deficits in planning. Barzalla should have been the city suburb, as it constituted the outpost, where the wetlands take off. Instead Barzalla to Hokarsar, residential colonies mushroomed. No thought was spared to let the city breathe easier by sparing its wetlands. With the drainage blocked, the city is stifling for breath. Add to that Nallah Mer’r that drained Dal Lake and you have a clogged city with choked water bodies. An arterial downtown road was built over the Nallah. We have Srinagar Development Authority [SDA] offices spread over flood channel—a channel devised to act as a drain to carry the fury of Jhelum, were it to bulge with incessant rain. The authority exercises control over the devised master plan for the city. The master plan devised by experts in Land Use—fundamental to Town Planning. In line with SDA, we have Haj House, police colony, police public school, forensic laboratory, Jhelum Valley Medical College, and a maternity hospital is coming up, enhancing the clogging of a vital drainage outlet. You may not build on wetlands and choke the city by depriving it of its breath. Instead, you use the highlands, were the city to grow beyond existing limits. You do not use wetlands and flood channels for creating bye-pass avenues, for easing the incoming and outgoing traffic of the city. You do not devise an embankment by laying down a rail track, thus forcing the Jhelum bulge to create havoc in the city. Add to that Nallah Mer’r that drained Dal Lake and you have a clogged city with choked water bodies. And also the construction sites on BUND, a fortified structure meant to check the overflow. Over twenty breeches due to construction sites have been reported on the bund, which had an additional fortification of trees with deep biological roots. Highlands mark construction sites, never ever a wetland. We may not even seek an escape in lack of available knowledge pool. Nay, not at all, urban planning was an advanced subject, while residential colonies on wetlands came up. We had engineers and architects devise urban planning. With due respects to our quality engineers and architects and their acumen in the profession they practice, urban planning is a different academic stream. Land use in urban planning may be a part of the study of an engineer and an architect, for one versed in urban planning it forms the core. An architect and engineer works on what urban planner provides. In our part of the world, even revenue services have a say, the main say as they man the bureaucracy. Patwar system of Todar Mal survives and thrives in our part of the world. 2010 Flood Control department report: We may return to it, in order to note what happened over last four years. In a cabinet reshuffle, another minister too k over Flood Control department. And in the meantime central government raised some queries over 2200 crore demand, out of which only 97 crores had been released. It is alleged that the new minister in charge was not interested to pursue. Whatever the truth and untruth of it, the matter needs to be judiciously probed to fix responsibility. Someone somewhere has faltered, that needs to be known, as the loss is colossal. Flood Fury: As the flood fury struck in the first week of September after unprecedented incessant rains, areas across Pir Panchal—Poonch/Rajouri, and Chenab Basin got inundated, as well as South Kashmir. Indian Space Research Organization [ISRO] reported 450 mm of rain [17.7 inches] in just 30 hours. As the waters started rushing towards Srinagar, effective warnings were not sounded, though JK government claims that radio announcements were made regarding rushing waters, as well as announcements made in mosques. However as the victims of flood fury relate hardly anyone listens to radio broadcasts these days. And not everybody attends mosque prayers. Except for Friday congregation prayers, attendance in mosques is quite thin. The surprising thing is that government announces curfew, there are blazing announcement. The government should have put the fear of death into people’s hearts for effective response. People are reluctant to leave their home and hearth, as is seen in coastal disturbances. As has been the practice in past, certain measures were adopted to save the administrative hub—Srinagar, which is also the commercial hub of the valley. Whether these measures are standard operative procedures or not has assumed the shape of controversy, as certain officials relate that it is not noted in official manual. It is contended on the grounds that whether written or conventional, such measures were adopted in the past. The measures included diverting the rushing waters through Kandizal in Southern suburb of Srinagar, and alerting security forces of all hues to implement measures. It is widely alleged that local MLA did not allow the diversion as it would inundate areas of his rural constituency. It is alleged that he brandished a gun holding everyone at bay. This is where security forces could be effective, however they were not mobilized. Police force was not visible patrolling the city for quite a few days after floods. CM Omar Abdullah admitted as much on news channels that his administration was not traceable. Areas beyond Kandizal did get eventually inundated, however it is related than an earlier diversion could have reduced the rising waters by half. In places the rise was as much as 20 feet. Flood Aftermath: With over 700,000 marooned, as per Army’s own admission 150,000 were rescued by the Army, though it is said that they were mainly tourist and labourers, mostly from Bihar. Army’s plausible explanation that evacuating outsiders is a standard operating procedure in disaster management to lessen the cost involved in providing locals. Army does accept that brave hearts—the generation next did a commendable job in rescuing about 550,000 people, hence the death toll overall remained below 200. Voluntary organization from within the state and from other states did a remarkable job in providing relief. Damage Assessment: Kashmir Center for Social and developmental studies [KCSDS] an advocacy group for societal concerns, environmental safeguards, health and educational up-gradation in several brain storming sessions came up with an initial estimate of approximately 1000 crores [one trillion Indian rupees, about 16 billion US dollars] the figure that was accepted by official agencies after some reluctance, as well as by SERF—State Economic Reconstruction Form, an amalgam of business bodies formed after floods to unify effort geared to re-construction and rehabilitation. (1) The breakdown is as follows: (a) 30,000 crores in housing sector [average loss of 10 lacs per household totaling 3 lac households—15% of total J&K households of 20 lacs as per 2011 census). It may be emphasized that on an average loss in decimated houses in Rajbagh & Gogjibagh could be as high as one crore, while in partially damaged house, damage could be as low as 2-3 lacs, hence an average of 10 lacs could be more or less a safe approximation (b) 25,000 crore loss in business sector, with structural and stock loss of approximately one lac businesses in business districts of Srinagar, in south Kashmir, parts of north Kashmir, and Peer Panchal. The recurring losses in business sector plus idle wages payable to employees in private businesses, as well as tourist business loss in prime tourist month of September has been estimated at 10,000 crores, hence the total loss in business sector is more or less 35,000 crores (c) 30,000 crore loss in public sector—the roads, bridges damaged plus losses in health and educational sector in structures and stocks (d) 5,000 crore loss in agricultural and horticulture sectors, including allied agricultural sectors like forestry & floriculture (2) It is norm in disaster management, unwritten nevertheless a conventional norm amongst nations to aid each other in managing disasters, a norm adopted in Uttarakhand disaster, much less in estimated losses (3) In J&K people are at a loss to understand why a different yardstick is employed vis-à-vis the state (4) National pride may not be paraded, whatever its hue in impeding flow of international aid (5) Dimension of major disasters is such, as to make it impossible for any state—major or minor to accommodate it in its budget outlay (6) J&K budget outlay for fiscal 2014-15 being 43,000 is hardly in position to accommodate the initial estimate of one trillion [one lac crore] Indian rupees, more so as on an average initial disaster gets appreciated two and a half times on an average as in apparently revisable estimate amounting to 3 times the J&K 2014-15 fiscal outlay, there is absolutely no way of accommodating reconstruction & rehabilitation in current fiscal or in the budget presentations of few subsequent years (7) Re-construction & rehabilitation being an immediate task at least in certain sectors like providing even temporary shelters for winter months ahead cannot be left for accommodation in subsequent years’ budget outlays (8) Beyond the state, there is no way to accommodate disaster management estimate in Indian budget outlay of fiscal 2014-15 amounting to 17.63 trillion without denting the major heads (9) The major heads in the Indian budget like defence outlay of 2.50 trillion rupees, over two trillion for subsidies—fuel, food & fertilizer, more or less a trillion for rural development cannot afford a dent to accommodate J&K flood disaster estimate (10) Total Indian GDP of 1.73 dollars is not wide enough to accommodate J&K disaster management estimate in revisable figure amounting to two and a half times the initial estimate, as assessed by international financial agencies in disasters like Tsunami, hence we may be looking at a figure of 250,000 crores [2.5 trillion Indian Rupees, about 40 billion dollars] (11) Major economic powers like Japan do not exhibit the reluctance to accept foreign aid in managing disasters, hence Indian reluctance in incomprehensible, hence un-acceptable (12) Advancing initially 1000 crores later 750 crores after PM Modi’s visit could be branded as mere peanuts compared to the huge need (13) Least that GOI could do is either not done or done in fits and starts. The least that could be done is to provide tax holiday for 10 years, putting a moratorium on debt servicing [debts already incurred] until businesses get settled and then follow it with one time settlement, future loans on soft terms and spread over a reasonable period of time (14) GOI needs to keep in mind that on an average and taking in view the comparative demographic status, J&K remains the highest tax payer contrary to what is projected on electronic media and in the Indian national print media (15) The least that GOI could do is to provide a connect with international financial agencies like World Bank & ADB to obtain long term loans at 1% interest—which is ADB norm. After initial promises neither SERF nor civil society were allowed to interact with ADB team on a visit to the vale (16) Immediate areas of concern is to provide accommodation to many homeless families, especially with bitterly cold Kashmir winter approaching (17) Tertiary care hospitals in Srinagar are in shambles, including the multi-specialty SMHS Hospital, Lal Ded Maternity tertiary hospital, G.B. Pant Pediatric tertiary care hospital. 400 beds in SMHS are out of service. Whereas initially in Associated Hospitals attached to Governmental Medical College [GMC] for providing tertiary care as well as teaching facilities for medical graduates and post graduates was 260 crores plus, it was later revised to 217 crores as some diagnostic aids were found to be repairable. Government initially provided 9 crore with a promise to provide 9 crores more, hardly enough to have the facilities fully operational. While outpatient services have been restored to an extent, in-patient facilities are hardly restorable to functional capacity of pre-flood state, without massive infusion of cash, which state government does not have and federal government is reluctant to provide. Civil Society and private aid organizations had to step in to restore about 100 beds in SMHS by providing beddings, similarly in G.B Pant Pediatric tertiary care facility 50 Fowler beds were provided. Similarly blood bank facilities were restored by private aid agencies by providing much needed freezers and refrigerators. Emergency medicines of various types including IV fluid was provided for maternity care (18) Private care agencies like Care Kashmir International [CKI] a health and environment advocacy group stepped in to keep private health care in optimum state of service by providing life line dialysis sets and dialysis fluid, plus insulin supplies to cater to growing Diabetic population, many of such cases being in the category of ‘Insulin Dependent Diabetes Mellitus [IDDM]’. Other agencies including Red Cross stepped in to maximize the effort (19) Post-Traumatic stress disorders [PTSD] is on rise in post flood scenario posing further challenges to already stressed citizenry, otherwise too the state being violence prone has loads of patients who are psychologically compromised (20) Educational sector is far from healthy with many schools knocked out of service. Report submitted to Hon’ble High Court taking Suo Motto notice of a local daily ‘Greater Kashmir’ regarding unsafe school buildings is quite revealing, it reads: Following its perusal, a division bench of Chief Justice MM Kumar and Justice Ali Muhammad Magrey took the report on record. The report, drafted on the basis of the information furnished by Chief Medical Officers, reveals that out of 24 more schools visited in the city, 17 were found hygienically unfit. The report unveils that in Chadoora block of district Budgam, out of five schools visited, two schools have been found in unhygienic condition while in block Soibugh of the same district all 12 schools visited have been found hygienically fit. Moreover, in Magam block all 24 schools visited were also found hygienically safe, the report said. In Bijbehara block of district Anantnag out of 73 schools visited, the hygienic condition of 33 schools has been found poor while in block Achabal of the same district, out of 37 schools visited, 20 have been found hygienically poor, the report says. However, in Mattan block, 41 schools have been found in good hygienic condition. The report unveils that in Baramulla district of north Kashmir, on the basis of information furnished by the CMO, 1932 educational institutes have been inspected and all have been found hygienically safe (21) Though the government claims to have made make shift arrangements including accommodating students on roll in unsafe school buildings in nearby safer school buildings including tents, such arrangements could be far from satisfactory, moreover tent accommodation as noted in reply filed with Hon’ble High Court with dipping temperature, winter having already set in is unacceptable (22) November Examination being the norm have been rescheduled for March/April. It is being resented in many circles, as it would leave students with no times for national entrance examinations held in June. March/April exam results could hardly be expected in time for qualifying in entrance examination
Posted on: Sun, 28 Dec 2014 14:41:47 +0000
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