FEBRUARY 14: GEJ, GMB AND MY ANALYSIS (I) By Azeez Olaitan. This coming election will be the most keenly contested presidential election in our democratic dispensation. Before diving into making my analysis, it is imperative i revisit summarily how the major candidates with their party fared in the 2011 election across the country particularly those contesting in the upcoming election. In the last general election, Goodluck Jonathan (PDP) polled 22,495,187 which is 58.89% of the total votes to defeat General Muhammad Buhari (CPC) now (APC) who had 12,214,853 (31.98%). Since the last election, the nation has witness huge political changes which include merger of the opposition parties into All Progressives Congress (APC); mass defection of Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) governors and members to APC; the security challenges in some of the states in the North Eastern part of the country; Adamawa, Borno and Yobe. The North has always been the stronghold of Gen. Buhari which was apparent in the 2011 election, 12 of the 19 states in the region was won by Buhari’s CPC (Congress for progressive change). In the North which has three regions, Buhari garnered 11,691,289; North-West (6,453,371), North-Central (1,612,999), North-East (3,624,919) compared to Goodluck Jonathan’s 8,351,472 votes; NW (3,395,724), NC (3,123,126) and NE (1,832,622). Looking at this results, it was a terrific display of might by Buhari considering the platform he contested on, CPC which he singlehandedly formed less than 6 months to the election. Goodluck Jonathan on his part still managed to put up a strong fight to snatch over 8 million votes in his seemingly weakest base. The South happens to be Goodluck Jonathan’s stronghold, particularly the south-east and south-south. Defeating Jonathan in the south was a tall order for General Buhari. Jonathan polled 13,088,127; in the south-east (4,183,102), south- south (6,118,608) and south-west (2,786,417) while Buhari’s CPC only managed dismal 391,635; SE (20,335), SS (49,691) and SW (321,609). Buhari’s victory in the North in 2011 was not surprising considering the fact he is known to control massive cult following in the region. What was more surprising is the timeframe he managed to pull the colossal number of votes with his new CPC which was less than 6 months to the election with no known war chest, no formidable party structure. These alone is enough to send jitters down the spine of Jonathan and PDP on the man he is contesting in the coming election, with a more formidable opposition in APC. The southern votes was not particularly unexpected especially in the SE and SS which was controlled mostly by PDP, and Goodluck Jonathan being a homeboy enjoyed some sort of solidarity across the two zones. It is in the SW that present an interesting case in the sense that the zone was reasonably in firm grip of the then Action National Congress (ACN) and more importantly they presented a presidential candidate, Nuhu Ribadu. Jonathan’s PDP cleared all the states with the exception of Osun state. It was rumoured in some quarters that political bigwigs of the ACN worked in favour of Goodluck Jonathan at the expense of their party’s candidate for some reasons best known to them. Notwithstanding, Jonathan was handed the SW votes on a platter of gold. The next election is fast approaching, Goodluck Jonathan as the incumbent is expected to run on his achievements. Alas, so far Jonathan’s campaign rally has been about the bashing of General Buhari and making of promises he made in 2011. Jonathan’s overall performance has been below par and in some respect retrogressive. In 2011, Mr President made a lot of promises to Nigerians and those promises remain unfulfilled without explanation. Some of which I will highlight here; 1. To complete the second River Niger bridge before the expiration of the tenure 2. To deliver stable, constant supply of electricity 3. To ensure that Nigerians do not use generators more than two times in a week 4. To explore the coal deposits in Benue and Kogi states for improved power supply 5. To reduce the importation of generators at least 90 percent in four years. 6. To address the issues of unemployment through diversification of the nation’s economy to that of sustainable agricultural development across the 36 states of federation 7. To create 1.5 million jobs in 2 years 8. To transform the economy within four years 9. To construct 2 world scale petrochemical plants, 2 fertilizer plants and 2 fertilizer blending plants. 10. To make Nigeria go beyond producing and exporting crude oil to exporting refined petroleum products because Nigeria has no reason to keep importing kerosene 11. To make sure that no part of the country is allowed to be a sanctuary for criminals anymore be they armed robbers or kidnappers 12. To make a complete transformation of national security architecture 13. To ensure there is no sacred cow in the fight against corruption; all crimes will be investigated as security is key. 14. To strengthen EFCC and ICPC to fight crime 15. To fight corruption regardless of the position of the person involved All these was never fulfilled, the Lagos presidential campaign rally was an opportunity for Mr President to tell Nigerians why he failed to keep his promises, not putting on a straight face repeating the promises he made in 2011. That is tantamount to calling Nigerians, fools. The intense insecurity in the north-east by boko haram. Jonathan’s government has not been impressive on the handling of this crisis. According to a 2012 Human Rights Watch report, 85 people were killed in 35 separate attacks between July and December of 2010. At least 550 died in 115 incidents in 2011. In the first nine months of 2012, more than 800 died in 215 separate attacks. Between May and December of 2013, over 1,200 people were killed in attacks according to a UN humanitarian agency. In the first half of 2014 alone, Human Rights Watch says Boko Haram killed over 2,000 people in 95 attacks. Over 1million displaced according to NEMA (National Emergency Management Agency), many Nigerians in the north are now refugees in their own country. Nigeria economy is in free fall after experiencing a period of steady growth. The government had announced they will adopt fiscal constraints or austerity measures to cope with the fiscal health of Nigeria. Am sure everyone know what awaits Nigerians in this regard. The corruption recorded under Goodluck Jonathan’s government no doubt contributed to the self-inflicted poor fiscal health of the nation. The looting under Jonathan’s watch is unprecedented. Governor of Osun state recently allege that Nigeria lost N2.2trillion to oil theft within one year under Goodluck Jonathan. This accusation was echoed by Edo state Governor that Nigeria loses about 400,000 barrels of crude oil on a daily basis. N58.7 billion was raised through the Terror Victims Support trust Fund (TVSF) last year, to assist victims of terrorist attacks, thousands of displaced victims are yet to have access to the fund; The N33 billion pension scandal; the immigration recruitment tragedy where 700,000 graduates were invited for 4000 vacant positions, 16 people reported dead from stampede and the man responsible is still keeping his job; $6billion fuel subsidy scandal; illegal diversion, or theft, of over N8 trillion crude oil sales proceeds. And many more. All these was swept under the carpet by the Jonathan’s government. The utterances of Mr President over the years is unbecoming of a man who is the number one citizen of a nation. He went on national TV to demonstrate is philosophical brilliance, saying mere stealing, people call it corruption; he also said recently in his Enugu campaign rally that ‘’how much did Nwobodo stole? Money not up to the price of Peugeots and Buhari send him to jail’’. It was reported that over 2,000 people was killed in Baga by boko haram, even though Defence HQ came out to refute the claim saying it was 150 few days after. 2000 or 150, what am driving at is that it took 4 days for the presidency to say something about the gruesome act but Goodluck Jonathan was quick to release a statement on Paris shooting that saw 12 people dead calling it ‘a dastardly act’ but does not give a damn about 2000/150 massacred in his backyard. Same thing happened during the kidnapping of the chibok girls, it took the president who is also the commander-in-chief more than 3 weeks to acknowledge some girls had truly been kidnapped by boko haram. Few months later, supporters of Jonathan callously appropriated the powerful # BringBackOurGirls campaign tweaked it to # BringBackGoodluck2015 ; that for me is improper, US Washington post even referred to it as the inappropriate slogan of the year. This is a President who dance around with convicted criminals, those who have EFCC (Economic and Financial Crime Commission) cases around their neck; appearing in court like is their second home, international wanted drug baron, Goodluck Jonathan stoop so low in choosing these set of people as his allies. This is also a president who wine and dine with someone who has been directly linked with the Boko Haram insurgency. Jonathan has failed Nigerians, even his supporters attest to this; recently Asari Dokubo, who said ‘even though Jonathan has not done things properly, he will still vote for him’. Well! That is not surprising. The President has successfully turn Nigeria to a joke. In one of his Presidential rally, Goodluck Jonathan said he will not fight corruption by punishing perpetrators or throw them in prison which is the traditional approach to dealing with some corrupt officials as practised everywhere but he will use technology to tackle the menace. That is quite laughable really, even China and United states who are well advance technologically don’t rely on technology to fight corruption, they have their prisons intact. One must certainly commend Mr President for this advance approach; I hope Barack Obama is learning. What Nigerians are witnessing under President Jonathan is mega corruption. For General Ibrahim Babangida who is widely known by many Nigerians as the most corrupt person to ever rule Nigeria, coming out to say he is a saint when compare to President Jonathan, then you know Nigerians are in it big time. Our Educational system has practically collapsed, last year witnessed a record failure in senior school certificate exam, that just rounded up how decay our Educational system has become. Health sector is nothing to write home about. Transportation sector, now this is interesting; the so called railway revival dressed with ‘locomotive train’, with Nigeria stature and in fact it is incongruent with Mr President’s claim of exposure to cutting edge technology in fighting corruption, one would expect some super-fast beautiful modern trains like the ones use in most industrialised and developed countries. Well! I guess that is a pipe dream. In the last 16 years of PDP leadership, what does Nigerians get in return; large scale poverty, high level of insecurity, high unemployment, failure in power generation, collapse of educational system. Nigerians have suffered enough from PDP 16 year misrule. Nigerians need change, Nigeria need change. To be continued……….
Posted on: Wed, 21 Jan 2015 21:54:02 +0000
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