FINANCIAL TIME ARTICLE Scotland’s Yes campaign gaining among undecided voters Undecided voters in Scotland are shifting towards backing independence, but not in enough numbers to secure victory on September 18, according to British Election Study data that tracks individual voting intentions. Trailing in all opinion polls, the pro-independence campaign’s hopes for the referendum rest on persuading a large majority of undecided voters that Scotland will enjoy a brighter future outside the UK. The BES, a long-running election study run by Manchester, Oxford and Nottingham universities, looked at responses from Scottish voters in March and June. It found 25 per cent of people who were undecided in March had shifted to supporting a Yes vote by June, compared with 18 per cent who had moved to No. The finding supports claims by pro-independence campaigners that their nationwide canvassing efforts are winning over sceptics. However, the BES data suggests the pace at which undecided voters are being won over is not enough to secure an end to the three-century political union between Scotland and England. If the 11 per cent of remaining undecided voters split in same proportion in favour of a Yes voter, the No camp would win a 56 per cent to 44 per cent victory on September 18, said Ed Fieldhouse, study co-director. “The ‘don’t knows’ are still significant. We find they are more likely to vote Yes when the time comes,” Prof Fieldhouse said. “But our data also shows not enough of them will support the Yes camp to win the eventual race: more people are yet to be persuaded.” A survey by pollsters Panelbase for the Sunday Times that was released at the weekend found 48 per cent of voters intended to vote No compared with 41 per cent who would back independence. Scotland will decide in a referendum to be held on September 18 2014 whether or not to end the 307-year-old union with England The Panelbase poll suggested widespread doubts about an independent Scotland’s economic prospects, with 42 per cent saying the nation would be worse off outside the UK compared with 34 per cent thought it would be better off. However, independence campaigners insist everything is still to play for in the final weeks of the campaign, pointing out that the Panelbase poll suggests a four-point swing in voting intention would be enough to secure victory for Yes. “In spite of a renewed barrage of scaremongering and relentless negativity from the No camp and Westminster government, we are in touching distance of success on September 18,” said Blair Jenkins, chief executive of the Yes Scotland campaign.
Posted on: Wed, 30 Jul 2014 21:18:11 +0000
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