FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 7.0N 130.3E TO 9.1N 125.6E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 271900Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 7.2N 129.2E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 7.6N 128.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 7.2N 129.2E, APPROXIMATELY 155 NM EAST OF MINDANAO, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH IMPROVED CONVECTIVE BANDING, ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMI- CIRCLE. A 271655Z AMSU-B IMAGE INDICATES MULTIPLE, FRAGMENTED CONVECTIVE BANDS OVER THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND A FORMATIVE CONVECTIVE BAND OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. A 271316Z ASCAT IMAGE SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION WITH 25 TO 30 KNOT EASTERLIES DISPLACED OVER THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE OF THE LLCC, ASSOCIATED WITH THE MULTIPLE CONVECTIVE BANDS, WITH 15 TO 20 KNOT WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS AN OVERALL FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH IMPROVED POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. DYNAMIC GUIDANCE INDICATES A WEST- NORTHWESTWARD TRACK TOWARD NORTHEAST MINDANAO, WHICH WILL ALLOW ABOUT 24 HOURS FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT PRIOR TO LANDFALL. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 281930Z.//
Posted on: Sat, 27 Dec 2014 23:36:53 +0000
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