FRIDAY TROPICAL ACTIVITY UPDATE [[PLEASE SHARE]] The Bureau of Meteorology, has this afternoon downgraded the probability of a tropical cyclone developing in Queensland waters over the next 3 days from HIGH to MODERATE. Computer model predictions are quite varied at this stage. The ECMWF Ensemble MSLP Standard Deviation spread chart that I have been posting over the last few updates continues to show the same scenario as previous updates with a strong tropical low or weak tropical cyclone developing off the coast of North Queensland over the coming days. This scenario is widely supported by computer models. From 5 different deterministic computer models surveyed this afternoon (ECMWF, UKMO, GFS, CMC, ACCESS), the majority expect this system to only reach a weak category 1 intensity. In order of accuracy, here are the different scenarios currently forecast: The two most accurate of the models expect the system to move AWAY from Queensland and wash out. The next two of the other models predict a crossing of a tropical low or weak category 1 tropical cyclone somewhere in the area between Cape Tribulation and Townsville early next week. The one other model predicts a crossing of a category 2 tropical cyclone somewhere in the area between Cairns and Ayr early next week, however, this computer model is the least accurate of the 5. At this stage the most likely scenario is: A TROPICAL LOW OR WEAK TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPING TO OUR NORTH ON SUNDAY OR MONDAY AND TRACKING TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST AWAY FROM QUEENSLAND. This scenario is the MOST LIKELY based on currently available data. Please keep up-to-date with the latest predictions by checking back with Mackay & District Weather Updates over the coming days.
Posted on: Fri, 09 Jan 2015 08:29:52 +0000
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